Research on the Sustainability of Afghanistan Based on the Emergy Analysis

Afghanistan is an important country for the Silk Road Economic Belt and the 21st Century Maritime Silk Road (the Belt and Road) proposed by China. Due to years of war, Afghanistan is not well-developed economically. However, Afghanistan has abundant mineral resources and unique geographical advantages that are of far-reaching significance for Chinese economic strategic development. To investigate the sustainability of the eco-economic system of Afghanistan, we completed a quantitative evaluation of the emergy of Afghanistan during the period 2008 to 2015 by establishing an indicator system based on an emergy analysis. Results showed that from 2008 to 2015, the total emergy used of Afghanistan increased from 5.56×10²² sej to 9.75×10²² sej, among which the proportion of non-renewable emergy was less than 25.7%. This indicates that local resources in Afghanistan have yet to be exploited and utilized effectively and that its economic development relied heavily on the input of external resources. Meanwhile, the Emergy Sustainability Index (ESI) of Afghanistan from 2008 to 2015 dropped from 3.00 to 0.72, the Environmental Loading Ratio (ELR) increased from 0.77 to 2.06, and the Emergy Yield Ratio (EYR) dropped from 2.31 to 1.49, reflecting the imbalanced utilization of resources and the low level of economic development in Afghanistan. As a result, the potential for sustainable development of Afghanistan is relatively great. Basic infrastructure construction and reasonable exploitation of natural resources are the urgent needs.     

Human mortality impacts of the 2015 summer heat spells in Slovakia

In 2015, Central Europe experienced an unusually warm summer season. For a great majority of climatic stations around Slovakia, it had been the warmest summer ever recorded over their entire instrumental observation period. In this study, we investigate the mortality effects of hot days’ sequences during that particular summer on the Slovak population. In consideration of the range of available mortality data, the position of 2015 is analysed within the years 1996–2015. Over the given 20-year period, the summer heat spells of 2015 were by far the most severe from a meteorological point of view, and clearly the deadliest with the total of almost 540 excess deaths. In terms of impacts, an extraordinary 10-day August heat spell was especially remarkable. The massive lethal effects of heat would have likely been even more serious under normal circumstances, since the number of premature deaths appeared to be partially reduced due to a non-standard mortality pattern in the first quarter of the year. The heat spells of the extremely warm summer of 2015 in Slovakia are notable not just for their short-term response in mortality. It appears that in a combination with the preceding strong influenza season, they subsequently affected mortality conditions in the country in the following months up until the end of the year. The impacts described above were rather different for selected population subgroups (men and women, the elderly). Both separately and as a part of the annual mortality cycle, the 2015 summer heat spells may represent a particularly valuable source of information for public health.     

REGIONAL DISCREPANCIES OF THE IMPACT OF TROPICAL INDIAN OCEAN WARMING ON NORTHWEST PACIFIC TROPICAL CYCLONE FREQUENCY IN THE YEARS OF DECAYING EL NIO

This study investigates the influences of tropical Indian Ocean(TIO) warming on tropical cyclone(TC)genesis in different regions of the western North Pacific(WNP) from July to October(JASO) during the decaying El Nio. The results show significant negative TC frequency anomalies localized in the southeastern WNP. Correlation analysis indicates that a warm sea surface temperature anomaly(SSTA) in the TIO strongly suppresses TC genesis south of 21°N and east of 140°E in JASO. Reduced TC genesis over the southeastern WNP results from a weak monsoon trough and divergence and subsidence anomalies associated with an equatorial baroclinic Kelvin wave. Moreover,suppressed convection in response to a cold local SSTA, induced by the increased northeasterly connected by the wind-evaporation-SST positive feedback mechanism, is found unfavorable for TC genesis. Positive TC genesis anomalies are observed over higher latitudinal regions(at around 21°N, 140°E) and the western WNP because of enhanced convection along the northern flank of the WNP anomalous anticyclone and low-level convergence,respectively. Although local modulation(e.g., local SST) could have greater dominance over TC activity at higher latitudes in certain anomalous years(e.g., 1988), a warm TIO SSTA can still suppress TC genesis in lower latitudinal regions of the WNP. A better understanding of the contributions of TIO warming could help improve seasonal TC predictions over different regions of the WNP in years of decaying El Nio.     

中国星级仓库的区位选择行为与等级差异

星级仓库区位认识对优化城市仓储空间和合理配置仓储用地资源有重要意义。以2008-2014年237个中国星级仓库为样本,综合运用区位关系识别、距离测度和典型案例分析等方法,揭示地域、行业、职能分异与星级仓库区位选择行为相互关系,阐明了不同等级城市的星级仓库区位统计规律,以及物流职能、交通圈层结构与星级仓库区位形成的内在作用机制。研究表明：①星级仓库分布于4个直辖市、22个副省级和省会城市、37个地级市、24个县/县级市,不同等级城市平均拥有星级仓库数分别为16.5、4.77、1.78和1.58个,呈“倒三角形”分布形态;行业分布呈现“通用和大宗仓储分散、专业性仓库集中”特征;办公和经营场所区位呈“共用和分离相对均衡”特征;②星级仓库区位受“供给+需求”共同驱动,省会及以上城市具有公共服务职能的星级仓库区位总体呈“近郊—远郊”布局模式,地级市以自营服务职能为主的星级仓库总体呈“中心—边缘”布局模式;③城市等级与星级仓库物流距离成正比且存在明显的类型分异,其中公私兼营和自营仓储型仓库受母公司区位影响,郊区化趋势滞后于提供公共服务的地产租赁和公共仓储型仓库。     

RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN THE SEASONAL TRANSITION OF EAST ASIAN MONSOON CIRCULATION AND ASIAN-PACIFIC THERMAL FIELD AND POSSIBLE MECHANISMS

The NCEP/NCAR reanalysis, CMAP rainfall and Hadley Centre sea surface temperature (SST) datasets are used to investigate the relationship between the seasonal transition of East Asian monsoon and Asian-Pacific thermal contrast, together with the possible causes. Based on the 250 hPa air temperature over two selected key areas, the Asian-Pacific thermal difference (APTD) index is calculated. Results show that the APTD index is highly consistent with the Asian-Pacific Oscillation (APO) index defined by Zhao et al., in terms of different key areas in different seasons. Moreover, the time point of the seasonal transition of the Asian-Pacific thermal contrast can be well determined by the APTD index, indicative of seasonal variation in East Asian atmospheric circulation from winter to summer. The transition characteristic of the circulation can be summarized as follows. The continental cold high at lower tropospheric level moves eastward to the East China Sea and decreases rapidly in intensity, while the low-level northerlies turn to southerlies. At middle tropospheric level, the East Asia major trough is reduced and moves eastward. Furthermore, the subtropical high strengthens and appears near Philippines. The South Asia high shifts from the east of Philippines to the west of Indochina Peninsula, and the prevailing southerlies change into northerlies in upper troposphere. Meanwhile, both the westerly and easterly jets both jump to the north. The seasonal transition of atmospheric circulation is closely related to the thermal contrast, and the possible mechanism can be concluded as follows. Under the background of the APTD seasonal transition, the southerly wind appears firstly at lower troposphere, which triggers the ascending motion via changing vertical shear of meridional winds. The resultant latent heating accelerates the transition of heating pattern from winter to summer. The summer heating pattern can further promote the adjustment of circulation, which favors the formation and strengthening of the low-level southerly and upper-level northerly winds. As a result, the meridional circulation of the East Asian subtropical monsoon is established through a positive feedback between the circulation and thermal fields. Moreover, the time point of this seasonal transition has a significant positive correlation with the SST anomalies over the tropical central-eastern Pacific Ocean, providing a basis for the short-term climate prediction.     

中国城市规模划分新标准的适用性研究

2014年11月,国务院发布《关于调整城市规模划分标准的通知》,将城市规模等级划分为“五类七档”,受到广泛关注。但因对新标准的理解存在歧义而出现各种划分结果,引起误解与混乱。在对比新旧标准的基础上,以第六次人口普查数据为基础,分析2010年中国城市规模等级结构,评价新标准的科学性和局限性。结果显示,新标准在空间口径、人口口径、分级标准等方面进行了实质性的改进;按照新标准划分的2010年中国城市规模等级结构,相对于旧标准及其他标准而言,特大城市和大城市数量大幅缩减,而中小城市数量相应增多,呈现出显著的金字塔结构特征,更加符合中心地理论模型和位序—规模法则,更有利于科学地实施城市与人口的分类管理。但同时,新标准也存在“城区人口”数据难以获取、受行政区划调整影响较大等局限性,亟待加强实体城区识别研究和推进数据共享。     

中国历史时期土地覆被数据集地理空间重建进展评述

重建长时间序列具有空间属性的土地覆被数据集,对研究历史时期土地利用/土地覆被变化及其气候和生态效应具有重要意义。近年来,国内外学者就定量重建中国区域历史土地覆被数据集进行了积极探索。但由于历史时期土地利用数据来源多元、重建方法多样、验证方式各异等原因,不同学者的重建结果迥异,其中重建方法是导致差异形成的重要原因之一。本文从重建思路、假设和方法、结果验证等方面对覆盖中国区域的主要空间数据集进行了综合评述,结果表明：①基于历史记录的还原法和基于地理空间模型的重建法是历史土地覆被空间重建的主要方法,而根据建模过程,后者又可进一步分为“自上而下”的配置模型和“自下而上”的演化模型法。②基于数量重建进行空间重建是当前历史土地覆被数据集重建的主流,在缺少充分、客观历史数据的条件下,对基础数据、分布控制因素和限制因子进行合理假设是取得合理结果的重要条件。③为提高研究成果的解释力,需要对重建结果进行检验,直接验证法虽较为准确,但受时空尺度限制,具有显著的局限性,间接验证法可作为有效的补充。     

GPT2w模型在中国大陆地区的精度分析

全球气温气压（GPT）系列模型可用于计算全球任意位置的气温、气压和水汽压等各种气象参数,目前国内外广泛使用且精度较高的全球气温气压模型主要为GPT2w模型.本文利用2012—2016年中国大陆地区102个国家气象站实测的气温、气压和水汽压数据对GPT2w模型进行精度分析.结果表明：GPT2w模型的气温误差均值为-0.45 ℃,标准偏差均值为10.04 ℃;气压误差均值为2.05 hPa,标准偏差均值为6.55 hPa;水汽压误差均值为0.11 hPa,标准偏差均值为6.15 hPa.总体而言,GPT2w模型计算出的气温、气压和水汽压值在中国大陆大部分地区具有较高的精度.同时,三种气象参数的精度在中国大陆地区分布不均匀,不同纬度区间存在一定差异且以年为周期均具有明显的季节性.     

基于三维激光扫描数据的建筑物三维建模

给出基于三维激光扫描测量仪所获得的点云数据来实现建筑物三维建模的方法。文中介绍了三维激光扫描测量仪的系统组成与工作原理,给出对点云数据处理的过程和方法,阐述建筑物三维建模的方法,并用实例介绍整体方法的实现过程和效果。     

东北亚地区MS6.0以上地震异常电磁波动研究

利用2005-01~2009-12 DEMETER电磁卫星详查模式下磁场与电场的极低频（ELF）三分量波形数据,选取东北亚地区（38°~58°N,105°~145°E）6个M_S≥6地震,对震前30 d震中上空±10°的6 000余条1130和1135轨道数据进行波矢分析和坡印廷矢量分析。结果发现,2005-08-16日本本洲东岸近海M_S7.2地震和2009-06-05日本北海道地区M_S6.6地震震前在质子回旋频率以下记录到来源于地球的异常电磁波扰动;2005-11-10俄罗斯西伯利亚东南部M_S6.4地震和2007-08-02俄罗斯萨哈林岛(库页岛)M_S6.8地震震前在质子回旋频率以下没有记录到异常电磁波扰动;2007-02-17日本北海道地区M_S6.2地震和2008-06-13日本本州东岸近海M_S7.3地震震前在质子回旋频率以下记录到异常电磁波扰动,但并非来源于地球。