Studying geoengineering with natural and anthropogenic analogs

Solar radiation management (SRM) has been proposed as a possible option for offsetting some anthropogenic radiative forcing, with the goal of reducing some of the associated climatic changes. There are clearly significant uncertainties associated with SRM, and even small-scale experiments that might reduce uncertainty would carry some risk. However, there are also natural and anthropogenic analogs to SRM, such as volcanic eruptions in the case of stratospheric aerosol injection and ship tracks in the case of marine cloud albedo modification. It is essential to understand what we can learn from these analogs in order to validate models, particularly because of the problematic nature of outdoor experiments. It is also important to understand what we cannot learn, as this might better focus attention on what risks would need to be solely examined by numerical models. Stratospheric conditions following a major volcanic eruption, for example, are not the same as those to be expected from intentional geoengineering, both because of confounding effects of volcanic ash and the differences between continuous and impulsive injection of material into the stratosphere. Nonetheless, better data would help validate models; we thus recommend an appropriate plan be developed to better monitor the next large volcanic eruption. Similarly, more could be learned about cloud albedo modification from careful study not only of ship tracks, but of ship and other aerosol emission sources in cloud regimes beyond the narrow conditions under which ship tracks form; this would benefit from improved satellite observing capabilities.     

Hydrologic,geomorphic and climatic processes controlling willow establishment in a montane ecosystem

Willow communities dominate mid‐elevation riparian areas throughout the Rocky Mountains of North America. However, many willow stands are rapidly declining in aerial cover and individual plants in stature. A poor understanding of the processes that control willow establishment hinders identifying the causes of this decline. We analysed the processes that have facilitated or limited willow establishment over the last half of the 20th century on two large floodplains in Rocky Mountain National Park in Colorado by addressing two questions: (1) How does hydrologic regime control willow establishment on different fluvial landforms? (2) How might climate‐driven variations in hydrologic regime affect future willow establishment? We precisely aged willows on the three most common fluvial landforms, stream point bars, drained beaver ponds, and abandoned channels, and statistically related establishment dates to patterns of annual stream peak flow. The role of peak flow on willow establishment varied significantly by landform. Willow recruitment had occurred nearly every year on point bars. In former beaver complexes, most willows had established following dam breaches, whereas willows had established on abandoned channels for several years following channel avulsion. Establishment on point bars and abandoned channels was driven by peak flows of 2‐ to 5‐year return intervals, whereas in abandoned beaver ponds most establishment was associated with flow events of >5‐year return interval. Models of climate change suggest that temperatures will increase and precipitation seasonality will shift over the coming decades in the Rocky Mountains, leading to earlier spring runoff, lower summer and fall flows, decreased snowpack and decreased soil moisture. Such changes are likely to diminish opportunities for willow establishment. Copyright © 2005 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

A novel wide-field hard x-ray telescope

We discuss a hard x-ray telescope for the range 25–70 keV based on a one-dimensional lobster-eye telescope and x-ray supermirror coatings. This approach enables wide field-of-view imaging. A telescope suitable for a large balloon payload, with a 50×100 cm frontal area, could have an effective area of 50–100 cm² and a 10⁰×10⁰ field of view, and thereby detect AGN that are 0.5 milliCrab in the soft x-rays in a 10⁴ second exposure. 29% of the sky could be surveyed to this limit in a 2-week balloon flight, reaching 6 times fainter than the HEAO A-4 all-sky survey.     

Small D-Spacing WC/SiC Multilayers for Future Hard X-Ray Telescope Designs

Multilayer coatings for reflecting hard X-rays up to 80 keV, like W/Si and Pt/C, have been studied for several years. To go to higher energies, in the range of 100 keV to 250 keV, one needs coatings with smaller d-spacings than can currently be made with these material combinations, and a lower interfacial roughness. With the new material combinations of WC/SiC the interface roughness can be reduced down to between 0.23 nm and 0.25 nm enabling bi-layer thicknesses down to 1.0 nm to reflect efficiently. The production of thinner period coatings thus enables the possibility for focusing optic designs with reasonable focal lengths and throughput up to 250 keV.     

Phase boundaries in finite amplitude mantle convection

Summary. Phase boundaries are included in dynamical finite element models of mantle convection. They are represented by point chains which act as additional sources of buoyancy forces when distorted, and as additional source or sink of heat. The influence of the exothermic olivine-spinel transition is studied in both shallow and deep convection models. The flow is only slightly enhanced by the transition. The increase of temperature due to latent heat release is step-like in the deep model, in the case of shallow convection it is more diffuse. Other quantities like ocean-floor topography, gravity anomalies, and stress distribution are no more than moderately affected. In a further investigation the effect of spinel post-spinel transition, whether endothermic or exothermic, on deep convection is examined. The effect on the flow is negligibly small in both cases.     

Persistent halogenated compounds in black guillemots (Cepphus grylle) from Greenland--levels, compound patterns and spatial trends

Twenty-seven black guillemot eggs and 39 livers were analysed for polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs), chlorinated pesticides including chlordane-related compounds and toxaphene, and polybrominated diphenylethers (PBDEs). The samples were collected at Qeqertarsuaq (Godhavn, West Greenland) and Ittoqqortoormiit (Scoresbysund, East Greenland). The concentrations of halogenated organic compounds in samples from East Greenland were somewhat higher than the corresponding concentrations from West Greenland. Differences in compound patterns were found between West and East Greenland, with higher percentages of the heavier PCB molecules, p,p(')-DDE and alpha-HCH in the samples from Ittoqqortoormiit. Similarly, different levels and different compositions were observed for eggs and livers. The eggs had generally higher concentrations of all compounds as well as higher percentages of CHB-50, CHB-62 and alpha-HCH than liver samples from the same area. Dividing the liver samples into age groups revealed increasing concentrations with age.     

Evaluation of an ensemble of Arctic regional climate models: spatiotemporal fields during the SHEBA year

Simulations of eight different regional climate models (RCMs) have been performed for the period September 1997–September 1998, which coincides with the Surface Heat Budget of the Arctic Ocean (SHEBA) project period. Each of the models employed approximately the same domain covering the western Arctic, the same horizontal resolution of 50 km, and the same boundary forcing. The models differ in their vertical resolution as well as in the treatments of dynamics and physical parameterizations. Both the common features and differences of the simulated spatiotemporal patterns of geopotential, temperature, cloud cover, and long-/shortwave downward radiation between the individual model simulations are investigated. With this work, we quantify the scatter among the models and therefore the magnitude of disagreement and unreliability of current Arctic RCM simulations. Even with the relatively constrained experimental design we notice a considerable scatter among the different RCMs. We found the largest across-model scatter in the 2 m temperature over land, in the surface radiation fluxes, and in the cloud cover which implies a reduced confidence level for these variables. An erratum to this article can be found at     

Bias and uncertainty in regression-calibrated models of groundwater flow in heterogeneous media

Groundwater models need to account for detailed but generally unknown spatial variability (heterogeneity) of the hydrogeologic model inputs. To address this problem we replace the large, m-dimensional stochastic vector β that reflects both small and large scales of heterogeneity in the inputs by a lumped or smoothed m-dimensional approximation γθ_∗, where γ is an interpolation matrix and θ_∗ is a stochastic vector of parameters. Vector θ_∗ has small enough dimension to allow its estimation with the available data. The consequence of the replacement is that model function f(γθ_∗) written in terms of the approximate inputs is in error with respect to the same model function written in terms of β, f(β), which is assumed to be nearly exact. The difference f(β) − f(γθ_∗), termed model error, is spatially correlated, generates prediction biases, and causes standard confidence and prediction intervals to be too small. Model error is accounted for in the weighted nonlinear regression methodology developed to estimate θ_∗ and assess model uncertainties by incorporating the second-moment matrix of the model errors into the weight matrix. Techniques developed by statisticians to analyze classical nonlinear regression methods are extended to analyze the revised method. The analysis develops analytical expressions for bias terms reflecting the interaction of model nonlinearity and model error, for correction factors needed to adjust the sizes of confidence and prediction intervals for this interaction, and for correction factors needed to adjust the sizes of confidence and prediction intervals for possible use of a diagonal weight matrix in place of the correct one. If terms expressing the degree of intrinsic nonlinearity for f(β) and f(γθ_∗) are small, then most of the biases are small and the correction factors are reduced in magnitude. Biases, correction factors, and confidence and prediction intervals were obtained for a test problem for which model error is large to test robustness of the methodology. Numerical results conform with the theoretical analysis.