Evaluating cost-effective strategies for meeting regional CO2 targets

Various climate protocol proposals oblige different industrialized countries to reduce CO₂ and other greenhouse gas emissions. In principle, the total costs of these obligations could be substantially reduced if emission reductions are implemented in regions with low marginal costs for CO₂ reduction. This has been difficult to quantify because of lack of models with suitable regional and sectoral detail. In this paper we perform these calculations by taking advantage of the capability of the IMAGE 2 model to compute regional emissions and costs. Two main options are examined for allocating emission reductions required of industrialized regions in a cost effective manner: (1) allocating them among industrialized regions (2) allocating them among all world regions. The cost savings for each of these options are presented. The main conclusions are that (a) it is of great importance for the cost comparisons of protocols to use a well defined baseline scenario and clearly formulated targets, and (b) large economic benefits, in the order of 35–65%, can accrue from joint-implementation agreements which allocate investments on the basis of net marginal costs of CO₂ emission reduction.     

Evaluation of groundwater dynamics and quality in the Najd aquifers located in the Sultanate of Oman

The Najd, Oman, is located in one of the most arid environments in the world. The groundwater in this region is occurring in four different aquifers A to D of the Hadhramaut Group consisting mainly of different types of limestone and dolomite. The quality of the groundwater is dominated by the major ions sodium, calcium, magnesium, sulphate, and chloride, but the hydrochemical character is varying among the four aquifers. Mineralization within the separate aquifers increases along the groundwater flow direction from south to north-northeast up to high saline sodium-chloride water in aquifer D in the northeast area of the Najd. Environmental isotope analyses of hydrogen and oxygen were conducted to monitor the groundwater dynamics and to evaluate the recharge conditions of groundwater into the Najd aquifers. Results suggest an earlier recharge into these aquifers as well as ongoing recharge takes place in the region down to present day. Mixing of modern and submodern waters was detected by water isotopes in aquifer D in the mountain chain (Jabal) area and along the northern side of the mountain range. In addition, δ²H and δ¹⁸O variations suggest that aquifers A, B, and C are assumed to be connected by faults and fractures, and interaction between the aquifers may occur. Low tritium concentrations support the mixing assumption in the recharge area. The knowledge about the groundwater development is an important factor for the sustainable use of water resources in the Dhofar region.     

Integrating disaster risk reduction into post‐disaster reconstruction: A long‐term perspective of the 1931 earthquake in Napier,New Zealand

This article is a long‐term retrospective study of the reconstruction that followed the 1931 earthquake that struck the city of Napier in Hawke's Bay, New Zealand. It particularly focuses on the positive outcomes in reducing the risk of future disaster at both local and national levels. These were facilitated by three key decisions and strategies: (i) reconstruction was initiated immediately after the disaster; (ii) it was designed as a balance between continuity and change; and (iii) it relied on a decentralised, integrative decision‐making process.     

Rapid fish stock depletion in previously unexploited seamounts: the case of Beryx splendens from the Sierra Leone Rise (Gulf of Guinea)

Fish stocks associated with seamounts may be particularly susceptible to overexploitation. From January to July 2001, the Spanish Oceanographic Institute (IEO) conducted an experimental fishing survey entitled ‘Palguinea-2001’ on the seamounts of the Sierra Leone Rise. Beryx splendens (commonly called alfonsino) is the main commercial demersal fish associated with this area. The aim of this study was to investigate the effects of a demersal longline fishery targeting B. splendens on the previously unexploited small Machucambo Seamount over a short time-scale, and also to consider trends in pooled catch rate at another four seamounts. During 110 fishing days at Machucambo, a total catch of 207 tonnes of B. splendens was taken with a fishing effort of 1 309 070 hooks. A spectral analysis and red-noise spectra procedure (REDFIT) algorithm was used to identify the red-noise spectrum from the gaps in the observed time-series of catch per unit effort by weight. Our results show the potential impact of longline fishing pressure on an unexploited ecosystem – after approximately 50 fishing days, the stock appeared to decline substantially, as reflected by a marked drop in catch per unit effort. The apparent rapid decline of the stock might be related to the small size and the virgin state of the Sierra Leone seamounts. The results could be extrapolated to similar small seamounts elsewhere.     

Volcaniclastic stratigraphy of the Tiscapa maar crater walls (Managua, Nicaragua): implications for volcanic and seismic hazards and Holocene climate changes

The Tiscapa maar in the center of Managua city formed by a phreatomagmatic eruption <3 ka ago. The eruption excavated a crater deep into the basement exposing a coherent Pleistocene to Holocene volcaniclastic succession that we have divided into four formations. The lowermost, >60 ka old basaltic–andesitic formation F1 comprises mafic ignimbrites and phreatomagmatic tephras derived from the Las Sierras volcanic complex south of Managua. Formation F2 contains the ~60 ka basaltic–andesitic Fontana tephra erupted from the Las Nubes Caldera of the Las Sierras complex 15 km to the S, the 25 ka Upper Apoyo tephra from the Apoyo Caldera 35 km to the SE, and the Lower (~17 ka) and Upper (12.4 ka) Apoyeque tephras from the Chiltepe volcanic complex 15 km to the NW. These tephras are separated by weathering horizons and paleosols indicating dry climatic conditions. Fluvial deposits of a SSW-NNE running paleo-river system build formation F3. The fluvial sediments contain, from bottom to top, scoriae from the ~6 ka basaltic San Antonio tephra, pumice lapilli from the Apoyo and Apoyeque tephras and the 6.1 ka Xiloà tephra, and scoriae derived from the Fontana tephra. The fluvial sediment succession thus reflects progressively deeper carving erosion in the southern highlands (where a large-amplitude regional erosional unconformity exists at the appropriate stratigraphic level) that began after ~6 ka. This suggests that the mid-Holocene tropical high-precipitation climatic phase affected western Nicaragua about a thousand years later than other circum-Caribbean regions. The end of the wet climate phase ~3 ka ago is recorded by a deep weathering zone and paleosol atop formation F3 prior to the Tiscapa eruption. Formation F4 is the Tiscapa tuffring composed of pyroclastic surge and fallout deposits that cover a minimum area of 1.2 km². The 4 × 10⁹ kg of erupted basaltic magma is compositionally and genetically related to the low-Ti basalts of the N–S striking Nejapa-Miraflores volcanic–tectonic alignment 5 km to the West of Tiscapa. Ascent and eruption mode of the Tiscapa magma were controlled by the Tiscapa fault that has a very active seismic history as it achieved 12 m displacement in about 3000 years. Managua city is thus exposed to continued seismic and volcanic risks.     

Catastrophic precipitation‐triggered lahar at Casita volcano,Nicaragua: occurrence,bulking and transformation

A catastrophic lahar began on 30 October 1998, as hurricane precipitation triggered a small ?ank collapse of Casita volcano, a complex and probably dormant stratovolcano. The initial rockslide‐debris avalanche evolved on the ?ank to yield a watery debris ?ood with a sediment concentration less than 60 per cent by volume at the base of the volcano. Within 2·5 km, however, the watery ?ow entrained (bulked) enough sediment to transform entirely to a debris ?ow. The debris ?ow, 6 km downstream and 1·2 km wide and 3 to 6 m deep, killed 2500 people, nearly the entire populations of the communities of El Porvenir and Rolando Rodriguez. These ‘new towns’ were developed in a prehistoric lahar pathway: at least three ?ows of similar size since 8330 ¹⁴C years bp are documented by stratigraphy in the same 30‐degree sector. Travel time between perception of the ?ow and destruction of the towns was only 2·5–3·0 minutes. The evolution of the ?ow wave occurred with hydraulic continuity and without pause or any extraordinary addition of water. The precipitation trigger of the Casita lahar emphasizes the need, in volcano hazard assessments, for including the potential for non‐eruption‐related collapse lahars with the more predictable potential of their syneruption analogues. The ?ow behaviour emphasizes that volcano collapses can yield not only volcanic debris avalanches with restricted runouts, but also mobile lahars that enlarge by bulking as they ?ow. Volumes and hence inundation areas of collapse‐runout lahars can increase greatly beyond their sources: the volume of the Casita lahar bulked to at least 2·6 times the contributing volume of the ?ank collapse and 4·2 times that of the debris ?ood. At least 78 per cent of the debris ?ow matrix (sediment < ?1·0Φ; 2 mm) was entrained during ?ow. Copyright © 2004 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Stratigraphie und paläoklimatische Aussagen einiger Lotkerne aus dem Bereich des Island-Färöer-Rückens (Nordatlantik)

Zusammenfassung Auf der skandischen und atlantischen Seite des Island-Färöer-Rückens wurden je zwei Tiefseekerne aus ca. 1200–2500 m zwischen 4–6 m Länge auf ihre Globigerinen-Anteile, O-Isotope (Paläotemperaturen), z. T¹²C/¹³C-Verhältnisse, sowie auf sedimentologische Besonderheiten und Benthos-Elemente untersucht. Es zeigt sich, daß die paläoklimatische und stratigraphische Deutung solcher im Grenzbereich zweier ozeanischer Räume unter komplizierten hydrographischen und glazialen Verhältnissen abgesetzter Sedimente außerordentlich schwierig und nur durchführbar ist, wenn alle Merkmale synoptisch betrachtet und ausgewertet werden. Aufarbeitungsvorgänge können die Globigerinen-Verhältnisse, isotopisch leichtes Schmelzwasser die ¹⁸O-Werte erheblich stören. Die nur während der Übergangsphase von Kalt- zu Warmzeiten in größerem Maße abgesetzten glazialmarinen Geschiebebrocken sowie Reaktionen des Benthos sind eine wichtige Interpretationshilfe.Die Kerne der skandischen Seite reichen bis in die Riß-Kaltzeit, von der atlantischen Seite einer bis in das Eem, der andere bis in das Würm-Glazial. Während der Warmzeiten werden Temperaturen erreicht, die die heutigen leicht übersteigen können, die der Kaltzeiten schwanken zwischen –1 °C und + 3 °C. Die hohe Sedimentationsrate bleibt während der Kaltzeit relativ konstant, während der warmen Phase steigt sie nach S erheblich an. Während dieser Zeit wurden die Kerne des atlantischen Hanges durch Overflow-Prozesse geprägt. Ihre Lutite bis Sande enthalten besonders viele Sedimentanteile, die von der Schwelle selbst stammen und Hinweise auf deren geologische Natur und deren Alter geben. Die z. T. gekritzten Geschiebe in den glazialmarinen Diamiktiten besonders der Kerne der NE-Seite sind wahrscheinlich größtenteils aus der Arktis, Skandinavien, eventuell auch aus dem britischen Raum abzuleiten. Während der Glaziale erfolgte wahrscheinlich kein oder nur ein geringer Wasseraustausch zwischen beiden ozeanischen Bereichen, im Skandik herrschten damit möglicherweise geänderte Strömungsbedingungen.

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Two sediment cores, 4–6 m long, were taken from the north and two from the south of the Iceland-Faeroe Ridge (water depths 1200–2500 m).Sedimentological and biostratigraphical investigations as well as oxygen and carbon isotope determinations were used to explain the palaeoclimatic conditions during the accumulation of the cored sediments in this boundary area of two adjacent, highly different oceanic environments. Only by investigation of as many parameters as possible satisfying results can be gained. Reworking of sediments can influence theGlobigerina-percentages, isotopically light melt water can seriously affect the ¹⁸O-values. Ice-rafted material deposited primarily during the transition phase from a cold to a warm period proves to be of considerable importance for the interpretation of the cores.The oldest sediments obtained from the region north of the Iceland-Faeroe Ridge are of Riss-Glacial age, those from south of the ridge of Eem Interglacial and Riss Glacial age, respectively. During warm (interglacial and/or interstadial) times temperatures as high or even higher than today were measured, during cold times temperatures range between –1 °C and + 3 °C. Sedimentation rates are high and nearly constant during cold times, but increase during warm intervals in the southern area of investigation. During these warm intervals sediments from the southwestern slope of the Iceland-Faeroe-Ridge are strongly influenced by overflow processes. Those sediments contain a considerable amount of ridge-derived material which gives evidence of the ridge's geologic character and age. Most of the partly scratched boulders in the glaciomarine diamictites, especially in the cores from NE of the ridge, can be derived from the Arctic region and Scandinavia; some boulders, however, may have come from the British Isles. During glacial times there was hardly any mixing between water masses north and south of the ridge, the current conditions might have been different.

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Résumé Sur le côté scandique et atlantique de la crête d'Islande et des Faeroe, deux carrottes de sondage, de 4 à 6 m, dans les sédiments océaniques (profondeur de l'eau approximative 1200–2500 m) ont été analysées en ce qui concerne les Globigérines, les isotopes de ló (paléotemperatures), et en partie la proportion de¹²C/¹³C, ainsi que les particularités sédimentologiques et des éléments du benthos.Il apparaît ainsi que l'interprétation paléoclimatique et stratigraphique de ces sédiments, déposés dans des relations hydrographiques et glaciales complexes à la limite de deux régions océaniques est extrêmement difficile et seulement réalisable si on observe et si on exploite synoptiquement toutes les caractéristiques.Les manipulations des sédiments peuvent troubler considérablement les rapports Globigérines, et pour l'eau de fusion isotopiquement »légère«, les valeurs de ¹⁸O. Les galets glacio-marins, déposés en abondance au cours de la période de transition de la saison froide à la saison chaude, de même que les réactions du benthos sont des auxiliaires importants pour l'interprétation.Les carrottes prélevées du côté scandique remontent à la glaciation du Riss; du côté atlantique, l'une remonte à l'Eem et l'autre à la glaciation du Würm.Durant les périodes chaudes, les températures atteignent les nôtres ou même les dépassent; dans les périodes froides elles oscillent entre –1 °C et +3 °C. La vitesse de sédimentation, élevée, demeure relativement constante au cours de la période froide, mais croît considérablement vers le sud pendant la période chaude. A cette époque les carrottes du versant atlantique ont été affectées par des processus »d'Overflow«. Leurs lutites et même leurs sables contiennent beaucoup de particules sédimentaires qui proviennent de la crête même et indiquent sa nature géologique et son âge.Les galets parfois striés des diamictites glacio-marines, surtout ceux des carrottes de la partie du NE, proviennent pour la plupart probablement de l'Arctique, de la Scandinavie et éventuellement aussi de la région britannique.Pendant les glaciations il ne s'est probablement pas produit, ou peu seulement, d'échange d'eau entre les deux régions océaniques. Dans le Scandique il régnait d'après cela probablement des conditions variables de courants.

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Die Thule-Landbrücke als Wanderweg und Faunenscheide zwischen Atlantik und Skandik im Tertiär

Zusammenfassung Die Auffassung, daß die nordatlantischen Inseln mögliche Relikte einer känozoischen Landbrücke zwischen Europa und Amerika darstellen, wird heute durchweg abgelehnt. Dennoch lassen sich von paläontologischer und biogeographischer Seite zahlreiche Belege sammeln, die eine solche Brücke bis ins jüngere Känozoikum bezeugen. So sind beispielsweise sowohl die heutigen Landbiota dieser Inseln als auch die litoralen marinen Faunen paläogäisch orientiert.Anhand tertiärer, quartärer und rezenter mariner Molluskenfaunen, vor allem der detaillierten historischen Analyse einzelner Gruppen, wird gezeigt, daß ihre Entwicklungen im Atlantik und Skandik getrennt abliefen und folglich beide Meeresgebiete während der längsten Zeit des Känozoikums voneinander vollkommen isoliert waren. Vor dem Pleistozän bestanden nur mittelbare Verbindungen über kurzzeitig existierende epikontinentale europäische Meeresstraßen zur Tethys. Wahrscheinlich war eine solche auch im Paläozän über Mittelgrönland zur Baffin-Bucht vorhanden.Bestehende Differenzen zwischen europäisch-nordatlantischen und amerikanischen Landbiota lassen sich durch die frühe Existenz eines Davis-Baffin-Golfes erklären. Die Ellesmere-Nordgrönland-Landbrücke wirkte mindestens seit dem Oligozän als Filter. Es lassen sich Wanderbewegungen im Neogen über diese Route nachweisen.Die Trennung in zwei Ozeanteilbecken und die gegenüber dem heutigen Zustand geänderten Meeresströmungen haben weitreichende paläoklimatische Folgen. Im subpolaren Raum sind neogene Vereisungen bzw. Abkühlungen nachweisbar, die sich auf West- und Mitteleuropa kaum auswirken. Über Meeresströmungen im Skandik lassen sich aufgrund von Schwermineral-Assoziationen im isländischen Raum Aussagen machen. Nach Wanderbewegungen von Meeresmollusken ist ein Zerbrechen der nordatlantischen Thule-Brücke seit der Wende Plio-Pleistozän nachweisbar.Diese Brücke entwickelte sich syngenetisch zur Aufweitung des Ozeanbeckens und überspannte seit dem ausgehenden Mesozoikum die auseinanderstrebenden Ufer. Ihr Zerfall erfolgte wahrscheinlich durch das Zusammenwirken von kontinentnahen Absenkungsvorgängen, Aufweitungsprozessen und erosiven Vorgängen.

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The view that the islands of the North Atlantic are the possible relicts of a Caenozoic land bridge connecting Europe and North America is today ordinarily rejected. In spite of this, however, abundant evidence of a palaeontological and biogeographical nature can be assembled to bear witness to the existence of such a bridge into the younger Caenozoic. As an example may be quoted the palaeogaeic land biota and littoral marine faunas of these islands.The study of Tertiary, Quaternary and recent marine molluscan faunas, and above all the detailed historical analyses of single groups, indicates that faunal development in the Atlantic and Norwegian Sea followed separate courses. From this it follows that the two areas were completely isolated during most of the Caenozoic. Before the Pleistocene only indirect and short-lived channels of epicontinental nature linked the North European and Tethyan seas. It seems not unlikely that similar Palaeocene passage stretched across the middle part of Greenland to connect with Baffin Bay.Existing differences between European, North Atlantic and American land biota can be explained on the assumption of the early existence of a Davis Strait/Baffin Bay gulf. The Ellesmere/North Greenland land-bridge operated from at least the Oligocene, as a filter barrier. In the younger Tertiary (Neogene) the existence of a migration route over this link can be detected.The separation into two basins and the consequent differences in the oceanic current regimes then as compared with now have far-reaching palaeoclimatic implications. In the sub-polar areas evidence for the existence of late Tertiary (Neogene) glacial and cool periods can be satisfactorily demonstrated, but virtually no traces of such changes can be detected in Western and Central Europe. Heavy mineral suites from the Icelandic region have provided indications of oceanic circulations. The migrations of oceanic molluscs support the breaching of the North Atlantic Thulean bridge at the Plio-Pleistocene boundary.This Thulean bridge developed syngenetically with the moving apart of the oceanic basins and spanned the separating shores from the close of the Mesozoic onward to its break-up, probably as the result of a combination of factors — offshore sinking, widening of the sea floor and erosive processes.

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Résumé La théorie faisant des îles de l'Atlantique-Nord des restes d'un pont continental cénozoique entre l'Europe et l'Amerique demeure aujourd'hui généralement rejetée. Cependant, on peut quand même assembler de nombreuses preuves paléontologiques et bio-géographiques démontrant l'existence d'un tel pont jusqu'au cénozoique supérieur. Ainsi la vie continentale et la faune du littoral marin de ces îles sont encore aujourd'hui de caractère paléogéeique.On démontre, surtout grâce à l'analyse détaillée des différents groupes que le développement de la faune mollusque marine du tertiaire, du quaternaire et de l'époque actuelle s'est déroulé séparément dans le Scandique et l'Atlantique et que par conséquent ces deux régions maritimes étaient complètement isolées l'une de l'autre pendant la plus grande partie du Cénozoique. En dehors du pléistocène, il n'y avait que des contacts indirects avec l'Atlantique par des routes maritimes Européennes épicontinentales qui étaient ouvertes seulement à court terme et qui allaient vers le Téthys. Pendant le paléocène une telle route maritime allait probablement par le Groenland moyen vers la baie de Baffin. Les différences entre la vie continentale Européenne-Atlantique et la vie continentale américaine s'expliquent par l'existence précoce du golfe de Davis-Baffin. Le pont continental entre la terre d'Ellesmere et le Groenland du nord jouait un rôle de filtre au moins depuis l'oligocène. Malgré celà, il est possible de prouver qu'il y a eu des mouvements de migration sur cette route pendant le néogène.La séparation en deux bassins océaniques et les courants marins différents de ce qu'ils sont actuellement ont des effets paléoclimatiques étendus. Dans la région subpolaire (actuelle) il y a déjà des traces des glaciations néogènes respectivement des refroidissements, qui n'ont guère d'effet sur l'Europe occidentale et l'Europe centrale. On peut expliquer grâce aux associations de minéraux lourds dans la région de l'Islande les courants marins Scandinaves. En observant la migration des mollusques marins, on peut démontrer la rupture du pont de l'Atlantique-Nord depuis la limite pliocène-pleistocène. Le pont de Thule s'est développé parallèlement à l'élargissement du bassin océanique reliant depuis la fin du mésozoique les côtes qui s'étaient éloignées. Sa destruction se déroula relativement vite, elle fut probablement causée par des affaissements à proximité du continent, et par des processus d'élargissement et d'érosion.

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, , . , , . .: , . — , , , , . , . , , . - - , Davis-Baffin. Ellesmere-Nordgrönland no- . . — . , , . . - Thule -. — . , , .

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Erweiterte Fassung eines Vortrages auf der 60. Jahrestagung der Geologischen Vereinigung in Kiel am 26. Februar 1970. Diese Zusammenstellung stellt ein wesentliches Teilergebnis eingehender Untersuchungen an holarktischen känozoischen Meeresmollusken dar, die als Habilitationsschrift vorgelegt worden sind. Es muß auf zahlreiche, noch nicht publizierte Details verzichtet werden, die im Rahmen einer weiteren Veröffentlichung in Druck gegeben werden und dort einzusehen sind. Den zahlreichen Freunden und Kollegen im Ausland wie in der Heimat sei aber bereits hier gedankt für jede mir bisher erwiesene Hilfe. Im Rahmen der vorliegenden Arbeit aber bin ich wegen wertvoller Anregungen und Diskussionen besonders den Herren Prof. Dr. M.Schwarzbach, Köln, und Prof. Dr. K.Rothausen, Mainz, verpflichtet. Die notwendigen Reisen konnten mit Hilfe der Deutschen Forschungsgemeinschaft durchgeführt werden.     

Baseline scenarios of global environmental change

This paper presents three baseline scenarios of no policy action computed by the IMAGE 2 model. These scenarios cover a wide range of coupled global change Indicators, including: energy demand and consumption; food demand, consumption, and production; changes in land cover including changes in extent of agricultural land and forest; emissions of greenhouse gases and ozone precursors; and climate change and its impacts on sea level rise, crop productivity and natural vegetation. Scenario information is available for the entire world with regional and grid scale detail, and covers from 1970 to 2100. The scenarios indicate that the coming decades could be a period of relatively rapid global environmental change as compared to the period before and after. The natural vegetation in industrialized regions could be threatened by climate change, but abandonment of agricultural lands could also make new lands available for reforestation and revegetation. The opposite is true for most of Asia and Africa. Here the impacts of climate change on vegetation may not be as significant as in temperate climates, but the demand for food will lead to a significant expansion of agricultural lands at the expense of remaining forests and other natural areas.     

Beta diversity of pelagic assemblages at fish aggregating devices in the open ocean

Owing to difficulties in accessing the vast open ocean, the beta (β) diversity of pelagic fish assemblages remains poorly studied. We investigated the relationship between assemblage similarity and geographical distance between anchored fish aggregating devices (FADs), sampled by standardised underwater visual censuses in three anchored FAD arrays in the Indian Ocean—at the Maldives, the Seychelles and Mauritius. The use of two complementary indices of β-diversity, based on presence/absence data (Jaccard similarity coefficient) and abundance data (Bray–Curtis index), revealed that geographical distance between sampling sites (from 4 to 257 km) appeared to have no effect on the similarity of fish assemblages associated with FADs within each array. The results of this preliminary study question the generalisation of the paradigm of an increase in β-diversity with geographic distance to the open-ocean fish community. Large-scale studies using a variety of datasets should be conducted to further investigate patterns of β-diversity in the open ocean.