Walking through volcanic mud: the 2,100-year-old Acahualinca footprints (Nicaragua)

We present the stratigraphy, lithology, volcanology, and age of the Acahualinca section in Managua, including a famous footprint layer exposed in two museum pits. The ca. 4-m-high walls of the main northern pit (Pit I) expose excellent cross sections of Late Holocene volcaniclastic deposits in northern Managua. We have subdivided the section into six lithostratigraphic units, some of which we correlate to Late Holocene eruptions. Unit I (1.2 m thick), chiefly of hydroclastic origin, begins with the footprint layer. The bulk is dominated by mostly massive basaltic-andesitic tephra layers, interpreted to represent separate pulses of a basically phreatomagmatic eruptive episode. We correlate these deposits based on compositional and stratigraphic evidence to the Masaya Triple Layer erupted at Masaya volcano ca. 2,120 ± 120 a B.P.. The eruption occurred during the dry season. A major erosional channel unconformity up to 1 m deep in the western half of Pit I separates Units II and I. Unit II begins with basal dacitic pumice lapilli up to 10 cm thick overlain by a massive to bedded fine-grained dacitic tuff including a layer of accretionary lapilli and pockets of well-rounded pumice lapilli. Angular nonvesicular glass shards are interpreted to represent hydroclastic fragmentation. The dacitic tephra is correlated unequivocally with the ca. 1.9-ka-Plinian dacitic Chiltepe eruption. Unit III, a lithified basaltic-andesitic deposit up to 50 cm thick and extremely rich in branch molds and excellent leaf impressions, is correlated with the Masaya Tuff erupted ca. 1.8 ka ago. Unit IV, a reworked massive basaltic-andesitic deposit, rich in brown tuff clasts and well bedded and cross bedded in the northwestern corner of Pit I, cuts erosionally down as far as Unit I. A poorly defined, pale brown mass flow deposit up to 1 m thick (Unit V) is overlain by 1–1.5 m of dominantly reworked, chiefly basaltic tephra topped by soil (Unit VI). A major erosional channel carved chiefly between deposition of Units II and I may have existed as a shallow drainage channel even prior to deposition of the footprint layer. The swath of the footprints is oriented NNW, roughly parallel to, and just east of, the axis of the channel. The interpretation of the footprint layer as the initial product of a powerful eruption at Masaya volcano followed without erosional breaks by additional layers of the same eruptive phase is strong evidence that the group of 15 or 16 people tried to escape from an eruption.     

A comparison of the climatology of a tropospherestratosphere-mesosphere model with observations

Mean fields from a perpetual January simulation of a GCM extending from the surface to 0.01 hPa (near 80 km) are compared to observations. The zonal mean temperature and wind fields correspond quite well with reality; the low stratosphere, especially in the polar night, is too cold, but warmer than in the original version of the model, with an upper boundary at 25 hPa. Mean fields at standard levels show that the major features of the troposphere are represented by the model, but rather over emphasised; the stratospheric winter polar vortex is too strong, too cold, and too barotropic; it resembles an `undisturbed' January rather than the climatology. Differences in the stationary eddy activity between the extended and orginal versions of the model are noted, and used to explain some differences between the two simulations.This paper was presented at the International Conference on Modelling of Global Climate Change and Variability, held in Hamburg 11–15 September 1989 under the auspices of the Meteorological Institute of the University of Hamburg and the Max Planck Institute für Meteorology. Guest Editor for these papers is Dr. L. Dümenil     

Post-injection trapping of mobile CO<Subscript><Emphasis Type="Bold">2</Emphasis></Subscript> in deep aquifers: Assessing the importance of model and parameter uncertainties

Predicting the fate of the injected CO₂ is crucial for the safety of carbon storage operations in deep saline aquifers: especially the evolution of the position, the spreading and the quantity of the mobile CO₂ plume during and after the injection has to be understood to prevent any loss of containment. Fluid flow modelling is challenging not only given the uncertainties on subsurface formation intrinsic properties (parameter uncertainty) but also on the modelling choices/assumptions for representing and numerically implementing the processes occurring when CO₂ displaces the native brine (model uncertainty). Sensitivity analysis is needed to identify the group of factors which contributes the most to the uncertainties in the predictions. In this paper, we present an approach for assessing the importance of model and parameter uncertainties regarding post-injection trapping of mobile CO₂. This approach includes the representation of input parameters, the choice of relevant simulation outputs, the assessment of the mobile plume evolution with a flow simulator and the importance ranking for input parameters. A variance-based sensitivity analysis is proposed, associated with the ACOSSO-like meta-modelling technique to tackle the issues linked with the computational burden posed by the use of long-running simulations and with the different types of uncertainties to be accounted for (model and parameter). The approach is tested on a potential site for CO₂ storage in the Paris basin (France) representative of a project in preliminary stage of development. The approach provides physically sound outcomes despite the challenging context of the case study. In addition, these outcomes appear very helpful for prioritizing the future characterisation efforts and monitoring requirements, and for simplifying the modelling exercise.     

The dust distribution within the inner coma of comet P/Halley 1982i: encounter by Giotto's impact detectors

Analysis of the data from Giotto's Dust Impact Detection System experiment (DIDSY) is presented. These data represent measurement of the size of dust grains incident on the Giotto dust shield along its trajectory through the coma of comet P/Halley on 1986 March 13/14. First detection occurred at some 287000 km distance from the nucleus on the inbound leg; the majority of the DIDSY subsystems remained operational after closest approach (604 km) yielding the last detection at about 202000 km from the nucleus. In order to improve the data coverage (and especially for the smallest grains, to approximately 10(-19) kg particle mass), data from the PIA instrument has been combined with DIDSY data. Flux profiles are presented for the various mass channels showing, to a first approximation, a 1/R2 flux dependence, where R is the distance of the detection point from the cometary nucleus, although significant differences are noted. Deviations from this dependence are observed, particularly close to the nucleus. From the flux profiles, mass and geometrical area distributions for the dust grains are derived for the trajectory through the coma. Groundbased CCD imaging of the dust continuum in the inner coma at the time of encounter is also used to derive the area of grains intercepted by Giotto. The results are consistent with the area functions derived by Giotto data and the low albedo of the grains deduced from infrared emission. For the close encounter period (-5 min to +5 min), the cumulative mass distribution function has been investigated, initially in 20 second periods; there is strong evidence from the data for a steepening of the index of the mass distribution for masses greater than 10(-13) kg during passage through dust jets which is not within the error limits of statistical uncertainty. The fluences for dust grains along the entire trajectory is calculated; it is found that extrapolation of the spectrum determined at intermediate masses (cumulative mass index alpha = 0.85) is not able to account for the spacecraft deceleration as observed by the Giotto Radio Science Experiment and by ESOC tracking operations. Data at large masses (>10(-8) kg) recently analysed from the DIDSY data set show clear evidence of a decrease in the mass distribution index at these masses within the coma, and it is shown that such a value of the mass index can provide sufficient mass for consistency with the observed deceleration. The total particulate mass output from the nucleus of comet P/Halley at the time of encounter would be dependent on the maximum mass emitted if this change in slope observed in the coma were also applicable to the emission from the nucleus; this matter is discussed in the text. The flux time profiles have been converted through a simple approach to modeling of the particle trajectories to yield an indication of nucleus surface activity. There is indication of an enhancement in flux at t approximately -29 s corresponding to crossing of the dawn terminator, but the flux detected prior to crossing of the dawn terminator is shown to be higher than predicted by simple modelling. Further enhancements corresponding to jet activity are detected around +190 s and +270 s.     

Relative change in stream discharge from a tropical watershed improves predictions of fecal bacteria in near-shore environments

Statistical models poorly predict bacteria in near-shore environments of tropical islands due to inaccuracies in runoff and discharge characterization of storm events. Intense, short duration storms on small, steeply sloped watersheds produce high rates of runoff, resulting in rapid pulses of discharge that influence the physical and physiological conditions of the fate and transport of pathogens. As such, increasing rates of discharge are expected to have a different influence on sediment transport and pathogen load compared to decreasing rates of discharge. Regression modeling was used to examine the affect of antecedent streamflow on the interaction between environmental parameters and two fecal indicator bacteria, enterococci and Clostridium perfringens. Including the relative change in discharge incorporates a proximate representation of the energy available to transport particulates, improving predictions of near-shore water quality. Understanding factors that influence pathogen loads improves management of watersheds and protects public health.     

Volcanogenic Tsunamis in Lakes: Examples from Nicaragua and General Implications

This paper emphasizes the fact that tsunamis can occur in continental lakes and focuses on tsunami triggering by processes related to volcanic eruptions and instability of volcanic edifices. The two large lakes of Nicaragua, Lake Managua and Lake Nicaragua, host a section of the Central American Volcanic Arc including several active volcanoes. One case of a tsunami in Lake Managua triggered by an explosive volcanic eruption is documented in the geologic record. However, a number of events occurred in the past at both lakes which were probably tsunamigenic. These include massive intrusion of pyroclastic flows from Apoyo volcano as well as of flank-collapse avalanches from Mombacho volcano into Lake Nicaragua. Maar-forming phreatomagmatic eruptions, which repeatedly occurred in Lake Managua, are highly explosive phenomena able to create hugh water waves as was observed elsewhere. The shallow water depth of the Nicaraguan lakes is discussed as the major limiting factor of tsunami amplitude and propagation speed. The very low-profile shores facilitate substantial in-land flooding even of relatively small waves. Implications for conceiving a possible warning system are also discussed.     

Base flow‐driven shifts in tropical stream temperature regimes across a mean annual rainfall gradient

Climate change is expected to affect air temperature and watershed hydrology, but the degree to which these concurrent changes affect stream temperature is not well documented in the tropics. How stream temperature varies over time under changing hydrologic conditions is difficult to isolate from seasonal changes in air temperature. Groundwater and bank storage contributions to stream flow (i.e., base flow [BF]) buffer water temperatures against seasonal and daily fluctuations in solar radiation and air temperature, whereas rainfall‐driven runoff produces flooding events that also influence stream temperature. We used a space‐for‐time substitution to examine how shifts in BF and runoff alter thermal regimes in streams by analyzing hydrological and temperature data collected from similar elevations (400–510 m above sea level) across a 3,500‐mm mean annual rainfall gradient on Hawai'i Island. Sub‐daily water temperature and stream flow gathered for 3 years were analyzed for daily, monthly, and seasonal trends and compared with air temperature measured at multiple elevations. Results indicate that decreases in median BF increased mean, maximum, and minimum water temperatures as well as daily temperature range. Monthly and daily trends in stream temperature among watersheds were more pronounced than air temperature, driven by differences in groundwater inputs and runoff. Stream temperature was strongly negatively correlated to BF during the dry season but not during the wet season due to frequent wet season runoff events contributing to total flow. In addition to projected increases in global air temperature, climate driven shifts in rainfall and runoff are likely to affect stream flow and groundwater recharge, with concurrent influences on BF resulting in shifts in water temperature that are likely to affect aquatic ecosystems.     

Hydrogeochemical characteristics of spring water in the Harz Mountains,Germany

Spring water samples of the Harz Mountains were taken in several seasons of 2010, 2011, and 2012. The samples have been analysed for main components (Na⁺, K⁺, Ca²⁺, Mg²⁺, SO₄²⁻, Cl⁻, HCO₃⁻ and NO₃⁻), trace elements (Fe, Cu, Pb, Zn, Y and REE), DOC, δ¹⁸O and δ²H of water. Meteoric water is indicated as the main source of the springs sampled. High precipitation rates lead to a dilution of the measured elemental concentrations. Furthermore, regional differences of rock and water interactions were found. REE concentrations and patterns of the spring waters vary between the distinct geological units and reflect the geochemical characteristics of the surrounding rocks. The actual data compared to measured data from the seventies and nineties of the last century indicate a decrease of the sulphate concentrations in the spring waters which is typical of many European mountain catchments.