Scaling and regionalization of flood flows in British Columbia,Canada

A regionalization of flood data in British Columbia reveals a common scaling with drainage area over the range 0·5×10²<A_d<10⁴ km². This scaling is not a function of flood return period, which implies that simple scaling—consistent with a snowmelt‐dominated flow regime—applies to the province. The observed scale relation takes the form , similar to values reported in previous studies. The scaling relation identified was used to define the regional pattern of hydroclimatic variability for flood flows in British Columbia after discounting the effect of drainage area. The pattern was determined by kriging a scale‐independent runoff factor k for the mean annual flood, 5 year flood and 20 year flood. The analysis permits quantification of uncertainty of the estimates, which can be used in conjunction with the mapped k‐fields to calculate a mean and range for floods with the identified return period for ungauged basins. Owing to the sparsity of data, the precision is relatively poor. The standard error is generally less than 75% of the estimate in the southern half of the province, whereas in the northern half it is often between 75 and 100%. Examination of the relative increase in flood magnitude with increasing return period reveals spatially consistent but statistically insignificant differences. Flood magnitude tends to increase more rapidly in the western regions, where rain events may contribute to flood generation. The relative increase in flood magnitude with return period is consistently lower in the eastern mountain ranges, where snowmelt dominates the flood flow regime. Copyright © 2002 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Projection of subtropical gyre circulation and associated sea level changes in the Pacific based on CMIP3 climate models

For all of the IPCC Special Report on Emission Scenarios (SRESs), sea level is projected to rise globally. However, sea level changes are not expected to be geographically uniform, with many regions departing significantly from the global average. Some of regional distributions of sea level changes can be explained by projected changes of ocean density and dynamics. In this study, with 11 available Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 3 climate models under the SRES A1B, we identify an asymmetric feature (not recognised in previous studies) of projected subtropical gyre circulation changes and associated sea level changes between the North and South Pacific, through analysing projected changes of ocean dynamic height (with reference to 2,000 db), depth integrated steric height, Sverdrup stream function, surface wind stress and its curl. Poleward expansion of the subtropical gyres is projected in the upper ocean for both North and South Pacific. Contrastingly, the subtropical gyre circulation is projected to spin down by about 20 % in the subsurface North Pacific from the main thermocline around 400 m to at least 2,000 m, while the South Pacific subtropical gyre is projected to strengthen by about 25 % and expand poleward in the subsurface to at least 2,000 m. This asymmetrical distribution of the projected subtropical gyre circulation changes is directly related to differences in projected changes of temperature and salinity between the North and South Pacific, forced by surface heat and freshwater fluxes, and surface wind stress changes.     

Exploring high-end scenarios for local sea level rise to develop flood protection strategies for a low-lying delta—the Netherlands as an example

Sea level rise, especially combined with possible changes in storm surges and increased river discharge resulting from climate change, poses a major threat in low-lying river deltas. In this study we focus on a specific example of such a delta: the Netherlands. To evaluate whether the country’s flood protection strategy is capable of coping with future climate conditions, an assessment of low-probability/high-impact scenarios is conducted, focusing mainly on sea level rise. We develop a plausible high-end scenario of 0.55 to 1.15 m global mean sea level rise, and 0.40 to 1.05 m rise on the coast of the Netherlands by 2100 (excluding land subsidence), and more than three times these local values by 2200. Together with projections for changes in storm surge height and peak river discharge, these scenarios depict a complex, enhanced flood risk for the Dutch delta.     

The annual silica cycle of the North Pacific subtropical gyre

Silica cycling in the upper 175 m of the North Pacific Subtropical Gyre was examined over a two year period (January 2008-December 2009) at the Hawaii Ocean Time-series (HOT) station ALOHA. Silicic acid concentrations in surface waters ranged from 0.6 to 1.6 ??M, exhibiting no clear seasonal trends. Biogenic silica concentrations and silica production rates increased by an order of magnitude each summer following stratification of the upper 50 m reaching values of 157 nmol Si L⁻¹ and 81 nmol Si L⁻¹ d⁻¹, in 2008 and 2009, respectively. Sea surface height anomalies together with analyses of variability in isothermal surfaces at 150-175 m indicated that the summer periods of elevated biogenic silica were associated with anticyclonic mesoscale features during both years. Lithogenic silica concentrations increased in the spring during the known period of maximum atmospheric dust concentrations with maximum values of 36 nmol Si L⁻¹ in the upper 10 m. Dust deposition would enhance levels of dissolved iron in surface waters, but there was no response of diatom biomass or silica production to increases in near-surface ocean lithogenic silica concentrations suggesting iron sufficiency of diatom silica production rates.Low ambient silicic acid concentrations restricted silica production rates to an average of 43% of maximum potential rates. Si sufficiency only occurred during the summer period when diatom biomass was elevated suggesting that bloom diatoms are adapted to exploit low silicic acid concentrations. Annual silica production at HOT is estimated to be 63 mmol Si m⁻² a⁻¹ with summer blooms contributing 29% of the annual total. Diatoms are estimated to account for 3-7% of total phytoplankton primary productivity, but 9-20% of organic carbon export confirming past suggestions that diatoms are relatively minor contributors to primary productivity and autotrophic biomass, but important contributors to new and export production in oligotrophic open-ocean ecosystems.Annual silica production at HOT is nearly 4-fold lower than estimates at the Bermuda Atlantic Time-series Study (BATS) site in the Sargasso Sea from the 1990s, but annual silica export at the base of the euphotic zone is similar between the two gyres indicating very different balances between silica production and its loss in surface waters. On a relative basis, BATS is a more productive system with respect to silica, where biogenic silica is recycled with high efficiency in surface waters; in contrast the NPSG is a lower productivity system with respect to silica, but where lower recycling efficiency leads to a much higher fraction of new silica production. The two gyres show contrasting long-term trends in diatom biomass as biogenic silica concentrations at HOT have been increasing since 1997, but they have been decreasing at BATS suggesting very different forcing of decadal trends in the contribution of diatoms in carbon cycling between these gyres. Combining the data from both gyres indicates that globally subtropical gyres produce 13 Tmol Si a⁻¹, which is only 51% of previous estimates reducing the contribution of subtropical gyres to 5-7% of global annual marine silica production.     

Ultraluminous X-ray source populations in normal galaxies: a preliminary survey with Chandra

We present results of a Chandra survey of the ultraluminous X-ray sources (ULX) in 13 normal galaxies, in which we combine source detection with X-ray flux measurement. 22 ULX were detected, i.e. with   L _x > 1 × 10³⁹ erg s⁻¹ ( L ₁₀)  and 39 other sources were detected with   L _x > 5 × 10³⁸ erg s⁻¹ ( L ₅)  . We also use radial intensity profiles to remove extended sources from the sample. The majority of sources are not extended, which for a typical distance constrains the emission region size to less than 50 pc. X-ray colour–colour diagrams and spectral fitting results were examined for indicators of the ULX nature. In the case of the brighter sources, spectral fitting generally requires two-component models. In only a few cases do colour–colour diagrams or spectral fitting provide evidence of a black hole nature. We find no evidence of a correlation with stellar mass, however, there is a strong correlation with star formation as indicated by the 60-μm flux as found in previous studies.     

Absolute Calibration of TOPEX/Poseidon and Jason-1 Using GPS Buoys in Bass Strait, Australia

An absolute calibration of the TOPEX/Poseidon (T/P) and Jason-1 altimeters has been undertaken during the dedicated calibration phase of the Jason-1 mission, in Bass Strait, Australia. The present study incorporates several improvements to the earlier calibration methodology used for Bass Strait, namely the use of GPS buoys and the determination of absolute bias in a purely geometrical sense, without the necessity of estimating a marine geoid. This article focuses on technical issues surrounding the GPS buoy methodology for use in altimeter calibration studies. We present absolute bias estimates computed solely from the GPS buoy deployments and derive formal uncertainty estimates for bias calculation from a single overflight at the 40-45 mm level. Estimates of the absolute bias derived from the GPS buoys is -10 ± 19 mm for T/P and +147 ± 21 mm for Jason-1 (MOE orbit) and +131 ± 21 mm for Jason-1 (GPS orbit). Considering the estimated error budget, our bias values are equivalent to other determinations from the dedicated NASA and CNES calibration sites.     

Postglacial sediment budget of Chilliwack Valley,British Columbia

The paraglacial reworking of glacial sediments by rivers and mass wasting is an important conditioning factor for modern sediment yields in mountainous catchments in formerly glaciated regions. Catchment scale and patterns of sediment storage are important influences in the rate of postglacial adjustment. We develop a quantitative framework to estimate the volume, sediment type, and fractional size distribution of legacy glacial materials in a large (1230 km²) watershed in the North Cascade Mountains in south‐western British Columbia, Canada. Chilliwack Valley is exceptional because of the well‐dated bounds of deglaciation. Interpolation of paleo‐surfaces from partially eroded deposits in the valley allows us to estimate the total evacuated sediment volume. We present a chronology of sediment evacuation from the valley and deposition in the outlet fan, based on infrared stimulated luminescence (IRSL) and ¹⁴ C dating of river terraces and fan strata, respectively. The effects of paraglacial sedimentation in Chilliwack Valley were intensified through a major fall in valley base‐level following ice retreat. The steepened mainstem valley gradient led to deep incision of valley fills and fan deposits in the lower valley network. The results of this integrated study provide a postglacial chronology and detailed sediment budget, accounting for long‐term sorting of the original sediments, lag deposit formation in the mainstem, deposition in the outlet fan, and approximate downstream losses of suspended sediment and wash load. The mass balance indicates that a bulk volume of approximately 3.2 km³ of glacial material has been evacuated from the valley. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.