Enhancement of the method of summer precipitation forecasting

The physical-synoptic principles of the automated method of summer precipitation forecasting introduced into operational prognostic practice in 2006 by the decree of the Central Methodical Commission of the Federal Service for Hydrometeorology and Environmental Monitoring (Roshydromet) are presented. Beside that, improved modifications of this method, which are automatically updated, are shown. Validation of those updates based on observational data collected in 2004 has shown improvement of all major criteria of forecasts efficiency. The performed improvement is based on the more detailed quantitative realization of mechanism of various showers formation (including heavy rainfalls).     

On the eigenvalues of kinematic α-effect dynamos

The kinematic α-effect dynamo problem is investigated in the case of an exterior perfect conductor. It is shown that certain approximate symmetries discovered in the numerical analysis of ROBERTS (1972) are exact for this case. As an illustration, an exact solution is given in a cylindrical geometry, where the equations can be written in terms of one variable. The implications for the earth's dynamo are discussed.     

Fire and vegetation shifts in the Americas at the vanguard of Paleoindian migration

Across North and South America, the final millennia of the Pleistocene saw dramatic changes in climate, vegetation, fauna, fire regime, and other local and regional paleo-environmental characteristics. Rapid climate shifts following the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) exerted a first-order influence, but abrupt post-glacial shifts in vegetation composition, vegetation structure, and fire regime also coincided with human arrival and transformative faunal extinctions in the Americas. We propose a model of post-glacial vegetation change in response to climatic drivers, punctuated by local fire regime shifts in response to megaherbivore-driven fuel changes and anthropogenic ignitions. The abrupt appearance of humans, disappearance of megaherbivores, and resulting changes in New World fire systems were transformative events that should not be dismissed in favor of climate-only interpretations of post-glacial paleo-environmental shifts in the Americas. Fire is a mechanism by which small human populations can have broad impacts, and growing evidence suggests that early anthropogenic influences on regional, even global, paleo-environments should be tested alongside other potential causal mechanisms.     

Analysis of mutations in the p53 tumor suppressor gene and Ki- and Ha-ras proto-oncogenes in hepatic tumors of European flounder (Platichthys flesus).

DNA from five tumors, three other-injured livers and two normal liver tissue samples from the European flounder were analyzed for mutations in exons 5-8 of the tumor suppressor gene p53 and at codons 12, 13 and 61 of Ha- and Ki-ras proto-oncogenes. No tumor-specific mutations were identified by direct sequencing and single-strand conformation polymorphism of these genes. A number of silent polymorphisms were noted in p53. In addition to a need for more extensive analyses of flounder liver tumor samples for ras or p53 mutations, other cancer-related genes should be investigated.     

Sea-level rise impacts on longitudinal salinity for a low-gradient estuarine system

Climatic Change - Salinity response to sea-level rise is evaluated for a low-gradient, tidally active estuary, the lower St. Johns River, Florida. A high-resolution numerical model is forced by...     

Alteration processes in the CV chondrite parent body based on analysis of NWA 2086 meteorite

Analysis of the NWA 2086 CV3 chondrite showed a matrix/chondrule ratio of 52%, similar to Bali, Mokoia, and Grosanaja. Nearly twice as many chondrule fragments as intact ones demonstrate that an early fragmentation phase occurred prior to final accretion. After this event, no substantial mechanical change or redeposition is evident. Rims with double‐layered structures were identified around some chondrules, which, in at least one case, is attributed to an accretionary origin. The rim's outer parts with a diffuse appearance were formed by in situ chemical alteration. During this later process, Mg content decreased, Fe content increased, and olivine composition was homogenized, producing a rim composition close to that of the matrix. This alteration occasionally happened along fractures and at confined locations, and was probably produced by fluid interactions. Iron oxides are the best candidate for a small grain‐sized alteration product; however, technical limitations in the available equipment did not allow exact phase identification. These results suggest that NWA 2086 came from a location (possible more deeply buried) in the CV parent body than Mokoia or Bali, and suffered less impact effects—although there is no evidence of sustained thermal alteration. This meteorite may represent a sample of the CV parent asteroid interior and provide a useful basis for comparison with other CV meteorites in the future.     

The use of acidimetric titration as a novel approach to study particulate trace metal speciation and mobility: Application to sediments of the Scheldt estuary

The study of trace metal speciation has benefited from a great deal of interest leading to the development and the diversification of sequential extraction schemes (SES), which triggered the need for harmonization by the standard, measurements and testing programme (SM & T). However, some uncertainties still persist in the application of the harmonized 3-step protocol, because of the difficulty in conceptualizing a technique that can be applied to environmental samples irrespective of their nature. The alternative method proposed in this study is based on the solubility of the sample components progressively dissolved during the course of an acidimetric titration by 1 mol L⁻¹ HCl. The major HCl-reactive mineralogical components are identified using mass balance calculation of H⁺ consumed by their dissolution together with the amount of major elements released into solution. The speciation of minor and trace elements is investigated by comparing their titrations to those of the major elements. This approach is much simpler than SES because it uses simple non-selective H⁺ at room temperature instead of a complex experimental design of so-called specific reagents. The different mineral components of the solid are no longer operationally defined and the problem of selectivity is irrelevant to the titration approach. The method was applied to several sediment samples from the Scheldt estuary and the particulate phase was further examined by Scanning Electron Microprobe and X-ray Diffraction techniques. The nearly complete consumption of H⁺ in the suspension is balanced by the total dissolution of carbonates and Fe-oxyhydroxides. In contrast to the speciation inferred from the Tessier SES, the acidimetric titration has demonstrated that the carbonate phase does not significantly contain trace metals with the exceptions of 40% of the Mn and 30% of the Co. In contrast, the Fe-oxyhydroxides seem to play a major role and account for 70% of Pb and 20% of Cr, in addition to 60% of P and additional amounts of 20% Co and 40% Mn. 70% of the Cu also occur in the oxyhydroxide phase, more likely coprecipitated with gibbsite. 90% of the Cd and 85% of Zn can be attributed to the Acid Volatile Sulfide (AVS) phase as evidenced from S titration. The acidimetric titration method not only provides information on the speciation of trace metals but also allows the quantification of their reactivity and mobility, if one considers that the titration roughly mimics pH changes that may occur as a result of chemical disequilibrium in the environment. The results demonstrate the potential of the acidimetric titration as an alternative to SES protocols in geochemical and environmental regulation studies. This method is applicable to a wide variety of environmental materials with little or minor adjustments.     

CLIMAP SSTs re-revisited

Since the 1976 publication of the CLIMAP ice age sea surface temperature (SST) reconstruction showing a 1–2 ^∘C tropical cooling a substantial debate has arisen as to whether tropical SSTs may instead have been 4–5^∘ colder than present. Herein I review the arguments for large SST variations and question a number of key findings, particularly the validity of ice-age coral SST estimates and “down-projecting” tropical snowline changes to the surface. GCM results indicate that an intermediate solution requiring ∼2.5 ^∘C warm pool cooling is consistent with most quantitative low elevation surface land data and is small enough to allow the persistence of tropical biota in the ocean during glacial times. The proposal reduces estimated ice-age climate sensitivity (for a doubling of CO₂) from a “high-end” sensitivity of about 4.5 ^∘C (for a 5–6 ^∘C tropical cooling) to a “mid-range” sensitivity of about 3.0 ^∘C for a 2.5 ^∘C warm-pool decrease. Received: 28 July 1999 /Accepted: 12 August 1999