Issues of Spatial and Temporal Variability in Climate Impact Studies

The accuracy of impact estimates relating climate change to regional-scale agricultural production is constrained by the temporal and spatial resolution of climate change projections. Several techniques have been used to compensate for these limitations in order to provide reasonable estimates of the impact of climate change on crop yield. One approach assumes that variability over time can substitute for spatial variability, thereby reducing the need to estimate the impacts at a spatially dense network of stations—an assumption that has not been generally tested. This study evaluates this assumption using methods similar to those employed in the climate impact literature. The findings suggest that current practices are generally defensible if the goal is to provide a range of possible crop responses to climate change. However, the results also show that the assumption is highly sensitive to specific interactions at the soil-plant-atmosphere interface and, consequently, does not hold under certain circumstances.     

Submarine exhalative gold mineralization at the London-Virginia Mine,Buckingham County,Virginia

Low grade submarine exhalative gold mineralization occurs at the London-Virginia deposit in central Virginia Piedmont. The deposit consists of a series of localized but conformable units — basal garnetiferous-chlorite schist, magnetite schist, quartz-muscovite schist, ferruginous quartzite, and chlorite-biotite schist — which represent a mixture of submarine epiclastic volcanic debris and exhalative chemical sediments. Finely disseminated gold occurs dispersed with minor amounts of pyrite, sphalerite, chalcopyrite, galena, and tennantite in the ferruginous quartzite and quartz-muscovite schist. The deposit is believed to have formed by processes analogous to those currently active in the Atlantis II Deep of the Red Sea. Silicarich, hypersaline brines discharged through fractures in the sea floor and ponded in a local basin. Epiosodic influx of clastic debris and extensive deposition of hydrothermal silica diluted the concentration of sulfides and gold to produce a low-grade, siliceous mineralized zone. Emanation from the exhalative vent was terminated when the basin was capped by a lava flow. Subsequent regional greenschist grade metamorphism has recrystallized the silica into a granular quartzite and produced minor remobilization of the gold and sulfides.     

Centennial scale benthic foraminiferal record of late Holocene oceanographic variability in Disko Bugt,West Greenland

A new centennial scale benthic foraminiferal record of late Holocene climate variability and oceanographic changes off West Greenland (Disko Bugt) highlights substantial subsurface water mass changes (e.g. temperature and salinity) of the West Greenland Current (WGC) over the past 3.6 ka BP. Benthic foraminifera reveal a long-term late Holocene cooling trend, which may be attributed to increased advection of cold, low-salinity water masses derived from the East Greenland Current (EGC). Cooling becomes most pronounced from c. 1.7 ka BP onwards. At this point the calcareous Atlantic benthic foraminiferal fauna decrease significantly and is replaced by an agglutinated Arctic fauna. Superimposed on this cooling trend, centennial scale variability in the WGC reveals a marked cold phase at c. 2.5 ka BP, which may correspond to the 2.7 ka BP cooling-event recorded in marine and terrestrial archives elsewhere in the North Atlantic region. A warm phase recognized at c. 1.8 ka BP is likely to correspond to the ‘Roman Warm Period’ and represents the warmest bottom water conditions. During the time period of the ‘Medieval Climate Anomaly’ we observe only a slight warming of the WGC. A progressively more dominant cold water contribution from the EGC on the WGC is documented by the prominent rise in abundance of agglutinated Arctic water species from 0.9 ka BP onwards. This cooling event culminates at c. 0.3 ka BP and represents the coldest episode of the ‘Little Ice Age’.Gradually increased influence of cold, low-salinity water masses derived from the EGC may be linked to enhanced advection of Polar and Arctic water by the EGC. These changes are possibly associated with a reported shift in the large-scale North Atlantic Oscillation atmospheric circulation pattern towards a more frequent negative North Atlantic Oscillation mode during the late Holocene.     

An iterative method for boundary element solution of large offshore structures using the GMRES solver

The GMRES approach is used to solve complex matrix solution arising from boundary element analysis of large offshore structures. This makes it possible to solve problems with large numbers of panels on a workstation with a much smaller memory than typical high performance computers. The speed of the solver is compatible with direct solvers when the enough RAM is available. Otherwise, an iteration procedure can be used. By using an out-of-core treatment, typical RAM requirement is reduced to a size approximately linearly proportional to the panel number n instead of being proportional to n². The code is first verified with direct solver for cases with small number of panels. The applicability to large offshore structure of the model is demonstrated for a TLP case.     

Small Format Digital Cameras for Aerial Survey: Where Are We Now?

This paper introduces the subject of digital sensors for aerial survey by reviewing the use made of small format digital cameras in such an application. The major advantages and disadvantages of employing such consumer technology for aerial survey are highlighted. Finally, a specification is proposed for a minimum requirement for a digital solution based on a single area array sensor.     

Precursory slope distress prior to the 2010 Mount Meager landslide,British Columbia

In 2010, the south flank of Mount Meager failed catastrophically, generating the largest (53 ± 3.8 × 10⁶ m³) landslide in Canadian history. We document the slow deformation of the edifice prior to failure using archival historic aerial photographs spanning the period 1948–2006. All photos were processed using Structure from Motion (SfM) photogrammetry. We used the SfM products to produce pre-and post-failure geomorphic maps that document changes in the volcanic edifice and Capricorn Glacier at its base. The photographic dataset shows that the Capricorn Glacier re-advanced from a retracted position in the 1980s then rapidly retreated in the lead-up to the 2010 failure. The dataset also documents 60 years of progressive development of faults, toe bulging, and precursory failures in 1998 and 2009. The 2010 collapse was conditioned by glacial retreat and triggered by hot summer weather that caused ice and snow to melt. Meltwater increased pore water pressures in colluvium and fractured rocks at the base of the slope, causing those materials to mobilize, which in turn triggered several secondary failures structurally controlled by lithology and faults. The landslide retrogressed from the base of the slope to near the peak of Mount Meager involving basement rock and the overlying volcanic sequence. Elsewhere on the flanks of Mount Meager, large fractures have developed in recently deglaciated areas, conditioning these slopes for future collapse. Potential failures in these areas have larger volumes than the 2010 landslide. Anticipated atmospheric warming over the next several decades will cause further loss of snow and glacier ice, likely producing additional slope instability. Satellite- and ground-based monitoring of these slopes can provide advanced warning of future landslides to help reduce risk in populated regions downstream.     

Garnet re‐equilibration by coupled dissolution–reprecipitation: evidence from textural,major element and oxygen isotope zoning of ‘cloudy’ garnet

The analysis of texture, major element and oxygen isotope compositions of cloudy garnet crystals from a metapelite sampled on Ikaria Island (Greece) is used to assess the model of growth and re‐equilibration of these garnet crystals and to reconstruct the pressure–temperature–fluid history of the sample. Garnet crystals show complex textural and chemical zoning. Garnet cores (100–200 μm) are devoid of fluid inclusions. They are characterized by growth zoning demonstrated by a bell‐shaped profile of spessartine component (7–3 mol.%), an increase in grossular from 14 to 22 mol.% and δ¹⁸O values between 9.5 ± 0.3‰ and 10.4 ± 0.2‰. Garnet inner rims (90–130 μm) are fluid inclusion‐rich and show a decreasing grossular component from 22 to 5 mol.%. The trend of the spessartine component observed in the inner rim allows two domains to be distinguished. In contrast to domain I, where the spessartine content shows the same trend as in the core, the spessartine content of domain II increases outwards from 2 to 14 mol.%. The δ¹⁸O values decrease towards the margins of the crystals to a lowest value of 7.4 ± 0.2‰. The outer rims (<10 μm) are devoid of fluid inclusions and have the same chemical composition as the outermost part of domain II of the inner rim. Garnet crystals underwent a four‐stage history. Stage 1: garnet growth during the prograde path in a closed system for oxygen. Garnet cores are remnants of this growth stage. Stage 2: garnet re‐equilibration by coupled dissolution–reprecipitation at the temperature peak (630 < T < 650 °C). This causes the creation of porosity as the coupled dissolution–reprecipitation process allows chemical (Ca) and isotopic (O) exchange between garnet inner rims and the matrix. The formation of the outer rim is related to the closure of porosity. Stage 3: garnet mode decreases during the early retrograde path, but garnet is still a stable phase. The resulting garnet composition is characterized by an increasing Mn content in the inner rim’s domain II caused by intracrystalline diffusion. Stage 4: dissolution of garnet during the late retrograde path as garnet is not a stable phase anymore. This last stage forms corroded garnet. This study shows that coupled dissolution–reprecipitation is a possible re‐equilibration process for garnet in metamorphic rocks and that intra‐mineral porosity is an efficient pathway for chemical and isotopic exchange between garnet and the matrix, even for otherwise slow diffusing elements.     

Spectroscopic evidence for protostellar infall

The observational evidence for infall associated with star formation is discussed. Whilst spectral energy distributions of young protostellar objects are consistent with infall, the best direct evidence comes from millimetre and sub-millimetre spectral line observations. Considerations of the formation of the line profiles and the chemical effects of gas-grain interactions suggest that there is only a very short ‘window’ in the evolutionary track of a protostellar object during which infall is directly observable. This may explain why so few infall candidates have been detected. It is argued that self-consistent models of the dynamical and chemical evolution of collapsing cores, coupled to multiple high resolution line observations, will provide definitive evidence for the presence of infall in these objects.