The role of prior model calibration on predictions with ensemble Kalman filter

This paper, based on a real world case study (Limmat aquifer, Switzerland), compares inverse groundwater flow models calibrated with specified numbers of monitoring head locations. These models are updated in real time with the ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF) and the prediction improvement is assessed in relation to the amount of monitoring locations used for calibration and updating. The prediction errors of the models calibrated in transient state are smaller if the amount of monitoring locations used for the calibration is larger. For highly dynamic groundwater flow systems a transient calibration is recommended as a model calibrated in steady state can lead to worse results than a noncalibrated model with a well-chosen uniform conductivity. The model predictions can be improved further with the assimilation of new measurement data from on-line sensors with the EnKF. Within all the studied models the reduction of 1-day hydraulic head prediction error (in terms of mean absolute error [MAE]) with EnKF lies between 31% (assimilation of head data from 5 locations) and 72% (assimilation of head data from 85 locations). The largest prediction improvements are expected for models that were calibrated with only a limited amount of historical information. It is worthwhile to update the model even with few monitoring locations as it seems that the error reduction with EnKF decreases exponentially with the amount of monitoring locations used. These results prove the feasibility of data assimilation with EnKF also for a real world case and show that improved predictions of groundwater levels can be obtained.     

Modelling changes in the epidemic range of Southern Pine Beetle using temperature and objective moisture indicators

Summary This report details as statistical model that relates changes in areal coverage of the Southern Pine Beetle (Dendroctonus frontalis Zimm.) to a multivariate combination of temperature and moisture status indices. It is applicable to larger geographic areas than our previous work (Michaels 1984). Performance in a true test (predictive) mode detected the algebraic sign of major coverage changes in a highly significant fashion. The results are purely correlative, rather than causative.This report describes a test-proven tool that can be used by planners to determine whether coverage will change, based upon easily accessed climatic data. An example of its application is provided.

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Zusammenfassung Diese Untersuchung führt ein statistisches Modell aus, welches das flächenmäßige Auftreten vonDendroctonus frontalis Zimm. mit einer Kombination von Temperaturund Feuchteverhältnisindikatoren in Verbindung bringt. Es kann für größere Gebiete verwendet werden als ein früher vorgestelltes (Michaels 1984). Die Anwendung zur Vorhersage zeigte in einem Test gute Übereinstimmung mit der tatsächlich aufgetretenen Richtung der Veränderung in der Verbreitung des Käfers. Die Ergebnisse zeigen Korrelationen, keine Kausalitäten auf.Es wird also ein Werkzeug für den Planer vorgestellt, mit dem die Verbreitungsänderung mit Hilfe leicht zugänglicher klimatologischer Daten bestimmt werden kann. Ein Anwendungsbeispiel wird näher ausgeführt.

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With 5 Figures     

Meteorological excitation of the annual polar motion

Summary. Numerous studies have indicated that the annual term in the polar motion cannot be explained in any detail by meteorological/hydrological excitation and no reasonable alternative excitations have been put forward. Part of the problem has been that the hydrostatic adjustment of the oceans to the atmospheric pressure changes has traditionally been computed using the inverse barometer approach. This approach does not properly model the gravitational interaction between the atmosphere and oceans, and the inverse barometer theory is modified in this paper to account for this properly. The information necessary to compute the ocean tide and polar excitation caused by any change in the atmospheric pressure pattern is presented. The results of the application of this theory to two global atmospheric pressure data sets are examined and compared to results of other workers.
It is concluded that the atmosphere is observed well enough to answer the question of the annual excitation of polar motion and it is argued that the ground water excitation is the component with the largest error and remains the chief obstacle to the successful solution of this problem.     

Tsunamis as geological agents

When a tsunami wave series approaches and interacts with a coast, the consequent passage shorewards of great volumes of water and their invasion of the land, especially within bays and up river valleys, results in the disturbance of existing sediment and the removal seawards of land debris and coastal and shallow‐water marine sediments. Tsunami action builds up sequences of peculiar sediments in shallow water; it at least assists in the formation and maintenance of submarine canyons and, through them, produces turbidity currents of a particularly powerful kind. Tsunami action may explain many puzzling sedimentary phenomena, for example, sudden and drastic changes in near‐shore bathymetry; the formation of chaotic sediments such as some paraconglomerates and edgewise conglomerates. It offers solutions to problems arising from the study of turbiditic sequences, both modern and ancient.     

Stable isotope study of base metal deposits from the Eastern High Atlas,Morocco

Tertiary epigenetic lead ± zinc and copper mineralizations occur in the Mesozoic carbonate cover and stibnite, barite and copper mineralization in the Precambrian to Palaezoic basement in the Eastern High Atlas, Morocco. The carbon isotope data from host carbonates range from +3 to -1‰ PDB. The data are typical for marine carbon. There is no difference between surrounding dolomites and younger vein dolomites. The oxygen isotopic composition of the samples is enriched in ¹⁶O; the range is from -3 to -11‰ PDB with respect to that of carbonates in equilibrium with marine water. It is postulated that the isotopic composition was changed during dolomitization being caused by transition of connate formation waters diluted to some degree by meteoritic water. The bacteriogenically reduced sulphur from syngenetic sulphides and Mesozoic marine sulphate mobilized during Tertiary orogenesis are thought to be the source of H₂S and SO₄. Cambro-Ordovicien sulphate is also supposed to be the source of sulphur in the Jebel Zelmou barite deposit in the basement. Isotopic composition of lead from galenas in the Tertiary deposits from the Mesozoic cover are strikingly homogenous. Model ages vary between 230–180 Ma. It is suggested that important mobilization processes are responsible for Tertiary metallogeny in Morocco.

     

Wrench faults,pull-apart basins,and volcanism in central Oregon: A new tectonic model based on image interpretation

A tectonic study of the Newberry Crater region of central Oregon has been based on the interpretation of Landsat Thematic Mapper imagery. Two major faults, the Brothers-Tumalo and Eugene-Denio Faults, pass NW-SE through the region and step to the right at the eastern margin of the Cascades Range. Dextral wrench faulting on these structures during the Tertiary controlled the formation of the La Pine Basin, a pull-apart structure containing Tertiary and Quaternary sediments and volcanics. Tertiary wrench faulting appears to have been associated with rotations of crustal blocks at a plate margin, but was superseded in the Quaternary by extensional faulting of the Basin and Range province. Newberry Crater and other major bimodal volcanic centres in the NW Cordillera (Crater Lake, Medicine Lake, Mt. St. Helens) seem to have a similar tectonic setting in crustal pull-aparts. A relationship between magma type and fault trend at Newberry and Medicine Lake is suggested.     

A mass ratio limit for primordial black holes

We augment our scenario for the formation of astronomical objects from macroscopic superstrings by the assumption that the central matter keeps its identity in the fragmentation. From the condition that the angular momentum per mass squared of this matter should be less than the Kerr limit G/c, we obtain upper limits for the ratio of the mass of central black holes M(BH) to the mass M of the host object. This limit is M(BH)/M ≈ 0.001, and, expressed in observed quantities, approximately M(BH)/M ≈ σ²/(v · c) where σ is the r.m.s. velocity, v the rotational velocity and c the velocity of light. The valuesM(BH) agree with the observed behaviour both in order of magnitude and in the variation with velocity dispersion. (© 2003 WILEY‐VCH Verlag GmbH & Co. KGaA, Weinheim)