Climate Change Impacts for the Conterminous USA: An Integrated Assessment

Here we simulate dryland agriculture in the United States in order to assess potential future agricultural production under a set of general circulation model (GCM)-based climate change scenarios. The total national production of three major grain crops—corn, soybeans, and winter wheat—and two forage crops—alfalfa and clover hay—is calculated for the actual present day core production area (CPA) of each of these crops. In general, higher global mean temperature (GMT) reduces production and higher atmospheric carbon dioxide concentration ([CO₂]) increases production. Depending on the climatic change scenarios employed overall national production of the crops studied changes by up to plus or minus 25% from present-day levels. Impacts are more significant regionally, with crop production varying by greater than ±50% from baseline levels. Analysis of currently possible production areas (CPPAs) for each crop indicates that the regions most likely to be affected by climate change are those on the margins of the areas in which they are currently grown. Crop yield variability was found to be primarily influenced by local weather and geographic features rather than by large-scale changes in climate patterns and atmospheric composition. Future US agronomic potential will be significantly affected by the changes in climate projected here. The nature of the crop response will depend primarily on to what extent precipitation patterns change and also on the degree of warming experienced.     

An analysis of the components of the luminescence signals of selected polymineral and quartz samples from loess in western China and southern Tajikistan,and their suitability for optical dating

Previous luminescence dating studies on loess from China and Tajikistan have focused on the establishment of the regional chronology of the loess sequences. In order to improve the precision and accuracy of optical ages derived from the loess of the last glacial period in these regions, we have examined the components of luminescence signals in three loess samples from western China and southern Tajikistan. Our results show that the polymineral IRSL and post-IR OSL, and quartz OSL signals from loess of the two regions are represented by three components, which display different bleaching and growth characteristics. While the composition of the polymineral IRSL signals is similar between samples with the same age from the two regions, in the case of quartz there is significant discrepancy in the proportion of the fast and medium components of the OSL signals. Greater difference is observed in the composition of the polymineral post-IR OSL signals for the loess from the two regions. The three components of polymineral IRSL signals yield almost identical equivalent dose values as that derived from the total IRSL signal. An apparent agreement in equivalent dose is observed between the fast component of the polymineral post-IR OSL and the quartz OSL for the loess of western China but not in the loess of the same age from southern Tajikistan. The fast component of the quartz OSL yields an equivalent dose 25% higher than that based on the total signal for the sample from the base of the Late Pleistocene loess in southern Tajikistan. This demonstrates the importance of signal selection for an accurate luminescence dating of Central Asian loess.     

Intercomparison of210Pb measurements at GEOSECS station 500 in the northeast Pacific

During reoccupation of the GEOSECS-I test station in May, 1979, more than eighty 30-liter Niskin samples were collected in profile, many as replicates, for²¹⁰Pb intercomparison measurements by the WHOI, SIO and Yale groups. In addition to the inter-laboratory comparisons, the SIO group also carried out extensive experiments to test the effect of sample scavenging method. Pb equilibration time (storage effect), and filtration process on the measured²¹⁰Pb results.The intercomparison measurements indicate that there is a general agreement between the various sets of data. The sample set which allows a direct comparison at the same depth was available in most cases only between two of the three groups. The direct paired comparison shows that (1) the WHOI data are systematically 3% lower than the SIO data; (2) there are no systematic differences observed between the SIO and Yale data although the scatter is rather large; (3) the Yale data are systematically higher than the WHOI data by about 8%.The SIO experiments show that (1) the two scavenging methods employed (Fe(OH)₃ and Co-APDC co-precipitation) yield identical²¹⁰Pb results; (2) variation of Pb carrier equilibration time or of storage time has no discernible effect; (3) the filtration apparatus and procedure employed at this station do not result in²¹⁰Pb loss or contamination.The²¹⁰Pb profile structure and absolute concentration measured earlier at the same location (GOGO-II test station and GEOSECS station 347) agree with those of station 500 within 10%. The present profile shows a minimum²¹⁰Pb concentration around 500 m depth, marking the penetration depth of the flux of excess²¹⁰Pb from the atmosphere. There is a mild mid-depth maximum around 2500–3000 m. The²¹⁰Pb/²²⁶Ra activity ratio decreases monotonically from about 1 at the²¹⁰Pb minimum to about 0.5 near the bottom. The particulate²¹⁰Pb profile shows a systematic increase from the subsurface water to the bottom water by a factor of 5. This feature has been observed in many GEOSECS particulate²¹⁰Pb profiles.     

Mega-monsoon variability during the late Triassic: Re-assessing the role of orbital forcing in the deposition of playa sediments in the Germanic Basin

The formation of the supercontinent Pangaea during the Permo–Triassic gave rise to an extreme monsoonal climate (often termed ‘mega-monsoon’) that has been documented by numerous palaeo-records. However, considerable debate exists about the role of orbital forcing in causing humid intervals in an otherwise arid climate. To shed new light on the forcing of monsoonal variability in subtropical Pangaea, this study focuses on sediment facies and colour variability of playa and alluvial fan deposits in an outcrop from the late Carnian (ca 225 Ma) in the southern Germanic Basin, south-western Germany. The sediments were deposited against a background of increasingly arid conditions following the humid Carnian Pluvial Event (ca 234 to 232 Ma). The ca 2·4 Myr long sedimentary succession studied shows a tripartite long-term evolution, starting with a distal mud-flat facies deposited under arid conditions. This phase was followed by a highly variable playa-lake environment that documents more humid conditions and finally a regression of the playa-lake due to a return of arid conditions. The red–green (a*) and lightness (L*) records show that this long-term variability was overprinted by alternating wet/dry cycles driven by orbital precession and ca 405 kyr eccentricity, without significant influence of obliquity. The absence of obliquity in this record indicates that high-latitude forcing played only a minor role in the southern Germanic Basin during the late Carnian. This is different from the subsequent Norian when high-latitude signals became more pronounced, potentially related to the northward drift of the Germanic Basin. The recurring pattern of pluvial events during the late Triassic demonstrates that orbital forcing, in particular eccentricity, stimulated the occurrence and intensity of wet phases. It also highlights the possibility that the Carnian Pluvial Event, although most likely triggered by enhanced volcanic activity, may also have been modified by an orbital stimulus.     

Evolution of the Kivu Rift,East Africa: interplay among tectonics,sedimentation and magmatism

The seismically and volcanically active Kivu Rift, in the western branch of the East African Rift System, is a type locale for studies of high‐elevation, humid‐climate rift basins, as well as magmatic basin development. Interpretations of offshore multi‐channel seismic (MCS) reflection data, terrestrial radar topography, lake bathymetry and seismicity data recorded on a temporary array provide new insights into the structure, stratigraphy and evolution of the Kivu rift. The Kivu rift is an asymmetric graben controlled on its west side by a ca. 110 km‐long, N‐S striking border fault. The southern basins of the lake and the upper Rusizi river basin are an accommodation zone effectively linking 1470 m‐high Lake Kivu to 770 m‐high Lake Tanganyika. MCS data in the eastern Kivu lake basin reveal a west‐dipping half graben with at least 1.5 km of sedimentary section; most of the ca. 2 km of extension in this sub‐basin is accommodated by the east‐dipping Iwawa normal fault, which bounds an intrabasinal horst. Lake Kivu experienced at least three periods of near desiccation. The two most recent of these approximately correlate to the African Megadrought and Last Glacial Maximum. There was a rapid lake level transgression of at least 400 m in the early Holocene. The line load of the Virunga volcanic chain enhances the fault‐controlled basin subsidence; simple elastic plate models suggest that the line load of the Virunga volcanic chain depresses the basin by more than 1 km, reduces flank uplift locally and broadens the depocentre. Not only do the voluminous magmatism and degassing to the lake pose a hazard to the riparian population, but our studies demonstrate that magmatism has important implications for short‐term processes such as lake levels, inflow and outlets, as well as long term modification of classic half‐graben basin morphology.     

Stable isotope evidence for the atmospheric origin of CO2 involved in carbonation of MSWI bottom ash

Stable isotopes were used to constrain the origin of CO₂ involved in the ageing process of municipal solid waste incineration (MSWI) bottom ash under open-air conditions. The δ¹³C and δ¹⁸O values of CaCO₃ occurring in MSWI bottom ash samples of variable age and the δ¹³C of the residual organic matter content were measured, and laboratory assessments made of the isotopic fractionation accompanying CaCO₃ neo-formation during accelerated carbonation experiments of bottom ash or pure lime with atmospheric or industrial CO₂. The results indicate that stable isotopic compositions exhibited by fresh and aged bottom ash samples reflect non-equilibrium processes resembling those described in the carbonation of concrete and mortar. They also lead to conclusions on the prevalent involvement of atmospheric CO₂ in the open-air carbonation of MSWI bottom ash.     

Development of ST:REAM: a reach‐based stream power balance approach for predicting alluvial river channel adjustment

River channel sediment dynamics are important in integrated catchment management because changes in channel morphology resulting from sediment transfer have important implications for many river functions. However, application of existing approaches that account for catchment‐scale sediment dynamics has been limited, largely due to the difficulty in obtaining data necessary to support them. It is within this context that this study develops a new, reach‐based, stream power balance approach for predicting river channel adjustment. The new approach, named ST:REAM (sediment transport: reach equilibrium assessment method), is based upon calculations of unit bed area stream power (ω) derived from remotely sensed slope, width and discharge datasets. ST:REAM applies a zonation algorithm to values of ω that are spaced every 50 m along the catchment network in order to divide the branches of the network up into relatively homogenous reaches. ST:REAM then compares each reach's ω value with the ω of its upstream neighbour in order to predict whether or not the reach is likely to be either erosion dominated or deposition dominated. The paper describes the application of ST:REAM to the River Taff in South Wales, UK. This test study demonstrated that ST:REAM can be rapidly applied using remotely sensed data that are available across many river catchments and that ST:REAM correctly predicted the status of 87.5% of sites within the Taff catchment that field observations had defined as being either erosion or deposition dominated. However, there are currently a number of factors that limit the usefulness of ST:REAM, including inconsistent performance and the need for additional, resource intensive, data to be collected to both calibrate the model and aid interpretation of its results. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Geochronology and geochemistry of Grenvillian igneous suites in the northern Oaxacan Complex, southern Mexico: tectonic implications

Chemical and U–Pb isotopic analyses of metaigneous rocks in the northern Oaxacan Complex in southern Mexico indicate that they form part of two granitic–gabbroic suites intruded at 1157–1130 and 1012 Ma, which were metamorphosed under granulite facies conditions between 1004 and 980 Ma. Although the older suite has both within-plate and arc geochemical signatures, the arc characteristics (enrichment of La and Ce relative to Nb, Ta, and Th) are inferred to result from crustal contamination, a conclusion consistent with their negative _Nd signatures. The younger suite is spatially associated with anorthosites (from which we were unable to acquire a protolith age), suggesting that collectively it forms part of anorthosite–mangerite–charnockite–granite (AMCG) suites. The tholeiitic nature of the mafic rocks along with the within-plate character of the felsic rocks suggests that they were intruded during extension related to either farfield backarc rifting, rifting above a slab window, or anorogenic intercontinental rifting. Potentially correlative AMCG suites are widespread in Mexico, the Grenville Province of eastern Canada and northeastern USA, and the Andean massifs of Colombia, however, Pb isotopic data most closely resemble those in South America. These data are consistent with published hypotheses that suggest Oaxaquia represents an exotic terrane derived from Amazonia.     

Microwave emission from a sunspot

From the gyroresonance brightness temperature spectrum of a sunspot, one can determine the magnetic field strength by using the property that microwave brightness is limited above a frequency given by an integer-multiple of the gyrofrequency. In this paper, we use this idea to find the radial distribution of magnetic field at the coronal base of a sunspot in the active region, NOAA 4741. The gyroresonance brightness temperature spectra of this sunspot are obtained from multi-frequency interferometric observations made at the Owens Valley Radio Observatory at 24 frequencies in the range of 4.0–12.4 GHz with spatial resolution 2.2″–6.8″. The main results of present study are summarized as follows: first, by comparison of the coronal magnetic flux deduced from our microwave observation with the photospheric magnetic flux measured by KPNO magnetograms, we show that theo-mode emission must arise predominantly from the second harmonic of the gyrofrequency, while thex-mode arises from the third harmonic. Second, the radial distribution of magnetic fieldsB(r) at the coronal base of this spot (say, 2000–4000 km above the photosphere) can be adequately fitted by $$B(r) = 1420(1 \pm 0.080)\exp \left[ { - \left( {\frac{r}{{11.05''(1 \pm 0.014)}}} \right)^2 } \right]G,$$ wherer is the radial distance from the spot center at coronal base. Third, it is found that coronal magnetic fields originate mostly from the photospheric umbral region. Fourth, although the derived vertical variation of magnetic fields can be approximated roughly by a dipole model with dipole moment 1.6 × 10³⁰ erg G^?1 buried at 11000 km below the photosphere, the radial field distribution at coronal heights is found to be more confined than predicted by the dipole model.