Modelling Korean extreme rainfall using a Kappa distribution and maximum likelihood estimate

Summary Attempts to use the 4-parameter Kappa distribution (K4D) with the maximum likelihood estimates (MLE) on the summer extreme daily rainfall data at 61 gauging stations over South Korea have been made to obtain reliable quantile estimates for several return periods. A numerical algorithm for searching MLE of K4D by minimizing the negative log-likelihood function with penalty method has been described. The isopluvial maps of estimated design values corresponding to selected return periods have been presented. The highest return values are centered at sites in the south-western part of the Korean peninsula. The distribution of return values for annual maxima of 2-day precipitation (AMP2) is more similar to the climatological features of annual total precipitation of Korea than that of annual maxima of daily precipitation (AMP1). Our results of return values delineate well the horizontal patterns of the heavy precipitation over the Korean peninsula. Received January 15, 2001 Revised October 8, 2001     

Seasonal Variability of Carbon Dioxide in the Rivers and Lagoons of Ivory Coast (West Africa)

We report partial pressure of CO₂ (pCO₂) and ancillary data in three rivers (Bia, Tanoé, and Comoé) and five lagoons (Tendo, Aby, Ebrié, Potou, and Grand-Lahou) in Ivory Coast (West Africa), during four cruises covering the main climatic seasons. The three rivers were oversaturated in CO₂ with respect to atmospheric equilibrium, and the seasonal variability of pCO₂ was due to dilution during the flooding period. Surface waters of the Potou, Ebrié, and Grand-Lahou lagoons were oversaturated in CO₂ during all seasons. These lagoons behaved similarly to the oligohaline regions of macrotidal estuaries that are CO₂ sources to the atmosphere due to net ecosystem heterotrophy and inputs of riverine CO₂ rich waters. The Aby and Tendo lagoons were undersaturated in CO₂ with respect to the atmosphere because of their permanent haline stratification (unlike the other lagoons) that seemed to lead to higher phytoplankton production and export of organic carbon below the pycnocline.     

The origin of the Pedra Furada sandstone tubular structures (South of Lisbon, Portugal)

The Pedra Furada is a 12 m wide, 18 m high outcrop feature showing hundreds of ferruginised sandy tubes and looking in part like a giant organ. In this paper the origin of the tubes is explained on the basis of geochemical, petrographic and microscopic (optical and electronic) analytical data. The tubes are considered to represent vertical escape channels for overpressured water, exhibiting inward decreasing grain size due to water velocity gradients inside the escape channels. The ferruginisation is due to iron oxides associated with colloidal/clayey fine sediments and to goethite formed from solution. The overpressure of water may be due to seismically fluidised beds below the Pedra Furada outcrop or to artesian water ascent. In both cases, fault rupturing may have played a major role in the focussing of the ascending flow.     

Pre-eruptive and syn-eruptive conditions in the Black Butte, California dacite: Insight into crystallization kinetics in a silicic magma system

A series of experiments and petrographic analyses have been run to determine the pre-eruption phase equilibria and ascent dynamics of dacitic lavas composing Black Butte, a dome complex on the flank of Mount Shasta, California. Major and trace element analyses indicate that the Black Butte magma shared a common parent with contemporaneously erupted magmas at the Shasta summit. The Black Butte lava phenocryst phase assemblage (20 v.%) consists of amphibole, plagioclase (core An_77.5), and Fe–Ti oxides in a fine-grained (< 0.5 mm) groundmass of plagioclase, pyroxene, Fe–Ti oxides, amphibole, and cristobalite. The phenocryst assemblage and crystal compositions are reproduced experimentally between 890 °C and 910 °C, ≥ 300 MPa, X_H2O = 1, and oxygen fugacity = NNO + 1. This study has quantified the extent of three crystallization processes occurring in the Black Butte dacite that can be used to discern ascent processes. Magma ascent rate was quantified using the widths of amphibole breakdown rims in natural samples, using an experimental calibration of rim development in a similar magma at relevant conditions. The majority of rims are 34 ± 10 μm thick, suggesting a time-integrated magma ascent rate of 0.004–0.006 m/s among all four dome lobes. This is comparable to values for effusive samples from the 1980 Mount St. Helens eruption and slightly faster than those estimated at Montserrat. A gap between the compositions of plagioclase phenocryst cores and microlites suggests that while phenocryst growth was continuous throughout ascent, microlite formation did not occur until significantly into ascent. The duration of crystallization is estimated using the magma reservoir depth and ascent rate, as determined from phase equilibria and amphibole rim widths, respectively. Textural analysis of the natural plagioclase crystals yields maximum growth rates of plagioclase phenocryst rims and groundmass microlites of 8.7 × 10^− 8 and 2.5 × 10^− 8 mm/s, respectively. These rates are comparable to values determined from time-sequenced samples of dacite erupted effusively from Mount St. Helens during 1980 and indicate that syneruptive crystallization processes were important during the Black Butte eruptive cycle.     

Stratigraphische Untersuchungen an Sedimentkernen des ibero-marokkanischen Kontinentalrandes

Zusammenfassung Biostratigraphie und Ergebnisse der Grobkornanalyse an Sedimenten vom marokkanischen und portugiesischen Kontinentalhang werden an zwei Kernen erläutert. Folgende Parameter scheinen sich besonders zur Korrelation zu eignen: Anteil des terrigenen Materiales an der Sandfraktion, Pteropodengehalt, Korngrößenverteilung des terrigenen Detritus, relative Temperaturangaben nach planktonischen Foraminiferen, Windungssinn von dreiGloborotalia- Arten. Beide Kerne erreichen Sedimente der letzten Kaltzeit, was dadurch unterstrichen wird, daß eistransportiertes, terrigenes Material und Hinweise auf Temperaturminima nach planktonischen Foraminiferen zusammenfallen.

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Biostratigraphy and the results of the sand grain analysis on Moroccan and Portuguese continental slope sediments are discussed. The investigation is based on samples taken from two cores. The following parameters seem to be well suited for correlation: The percentage of the terrigenous material of the sand-fraction, the pteropod content, grainsize distribution of the terrigeneous material, temperature curves based on planktonic foraminifera and coiling ratios of threeGloborotalia species.In both cores sediments from the last glacial period are reached. This is demonstrated by a very good correlation between the ice-transported terrigenous material and the temperature minima as determined by planktonic foraminifera.

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Résumé Notre présente étude concerne la biostratigraphie et l'analyse sédimentologique de deux carottes prélevées sur la pente continentale maroco-portugaise. Des corrélations ont été déduites de l'évolution des paramètres suivants: Pourcentage du matériel terrigène et des ptéropodes de la fraction sableuse, répartition granulométrique du matériel terrigène, variation faunique des foraminifères planctoniques, sens de l'enroulement de trois espèces deGloborotalia.Ces deux sondages pénètrent dans les sédiments de la dernière période glaciaire. La présence de matériel terrigène transporté par les glaces et les indications de température fournies par les foraminifères planctoniques s'harmonisent et confirment l'affirmation précédente.

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. : , Pterododen, , , Globorotalia. . .

     

Seasonal prediction skill of ECMWF System 4 and NCEP CFSv2 retrospective forecast for the Northern Hemisphere Winter

The seasonal prediction skill for the Northern Hemisphere winter is assessed using retrospective predictions (1982–2010) from the ECMWF System 4 (Sys4) and National Center for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) CFS version 2 (CFSv2) coupled atmosphere–ocean seasonal climate prediction systems. Sys4 shows a cold bias in the equatorial Pacific but a warm bias is found in the North Pacific and part of the North Atlantic. The CFSv2 has strong warm bias from the cold tongue region of the eastern Pacific to the equatorial central Pacific and cold bias in broad areas over the North Pacific and the North Atlantic. A cold bias in the Southern Hemisphere is common in both reforecasts. In addition, excessive precipitation is found in the equatorial Pacific, the equatorial Indian Ocean and the western Pacific in Sys4, and in the South Pacific, the southern Indian Ocean and the western Pacific in CFSv2. A dry bias is found for both modeling systems over South America and northern Australia. The mean prediction skill of 2 meter temperature (2mT) and precipitation anomalies are greater over the tropics than the extra-tropics and also greater over ocean than land. The prediction skill of tropical 2mT and precipitation is greater in strong El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) winters than in weak ENSO winters. Both models predict the year-to-year ENSO variation quite accurately, although sea surface temperature trend bias in CFSv2 over the tropical Pacific results in lower prediction skill for the CFSv2 relative to the Sys4. Both models capture the main ENSO teleconnection pattern of strong anomalies over the tropics, the North Pacific and the North America. However, both models have difficulty in forecasting the year-to-year winter temperature variability over the US and northern Europe.     

The 2013 Ibiza Calibration Campaign of Jason-2 and SARAL Altimeters

This study presents the results of the 2013 Ibiza (Western Mediterranean) calibration campaign of Jason-2 and SARAL altimeters. It took place from 14 to 16 September 2013 and comprised two phases: the calibration of the GNSS (Global Navigation Satellite System) buoys to estimate the antenna height of each of them and the absolute calibration to estimate the altimeter bias (i.e., the difference of sea level measured by radar altimetry and GNSS). The first one was achieved in the Ibiza harbor at a close vicinity of the Ibiza tide gauge and the second one was performed at ～ 40 km at the northwest of Ibiza Island at a crossover point of Jason-2 and SARAL nominal groundtracks. Five buoys were used to delineate the crossover region and their measurements interpolated at the exact location of each overflight. The overflights occurred two consecutive days: 15 and 16 September 2013 for Jason-2 and SARAL, respectively. The GNSS data were processed using precise point positioning technique. The biases found are of (?0.1 ± 0.9) and (?3.1 ± 1.5) cm for Jason-2 and SARAL, respectively.     

Roll Vortices and Boundary-Layer Development during a Cold Air Outbreak

The development of the boundary layer during a cold air outbreak in the FramStrait is documented by aircraft measurements. The convection was organisedinto roll vortices with aspect ratios increasing from 2.9 near the ice edgeto more than 6 at 100 km further downstream. This increase coincides with anincrease of the latent heat release in the cloud layer. The stability parameter-zi/L varies from about zero at the ice edge to 30 at a distance of 200 kmdownstream over open water where the satellite picture still shows cloudstreets. The increase is mainly due to the deepening of the boundary layer.The turbulent vertical sensible and latent heat fluxes near the surface amountto 400 W m^-2 within a 300 km off-ice zone. 25% of the upward heat fluxin the subcloud layer is carried out by organised roll motions. Experimentswith a 2-dimensional non-hydrostatic model show a similar roll aspect ratio inthe first 50 km, but further downstream where condensational heating is moreimportant the modelled roll wavelengths are distinctly smaller than the observedones.     

Active control of MDOF structures with supplemental electrorheological fluid dampers

A method for design of an active control system for multistorey structures using Electrorheological (ER) dampers is presented. Incorporated at various levels of a structural frame, ER dampers are used to improve the response of the structure during earthquakes. Optimal control theory was used to design the ER devices. The aim of the design is to find the most suitable combination of the minimum required forces produced by the ER dampers to obtain the optimal structural response. The mechanical response of ER fluid dampers is regulated by an electric field, depending on the displacements and velocities of the frame. Numerical analysis of an ER damped seven-storey structure is represented as an example. Significant improvement of the structural response was obtained using optimal active controlled ER dampers compared to passive controlled and uncontrolled structures. Copyright © 1999 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Geophysical and geochemical observations on actively seeping hydrocarbon gases on the south-eastern Yellow Sea continental shelf

In the southeastern Yellow Sea, active seepage of hydrocarbon gases has been observed by high-resolution (3.5 kHz) seismic profiling both in 1987 and 2001, occurring through a large number of plumes from the topmost pre-Holocene sedimentary layer. It is strong enough to compensate for current speed, extending vertically up to the sea surface. The gas seepage often appears to be explosive to form craters and diapirs, although pockmarks are rare due to the redistribution of mobile palimpsest sands. In core-top seawater and sediments, the gases are characterized by high amounts of C₂, homogenous ¹³C₁ values and a large difference (19.7 on average) between ¹³C₁ (–55.2 to –53.6 PDB) and ¹³C₂ (–36.8 to –32.5 PDB) values. The gases are considered to be generated with a smaller amount of C₁ at the early thermal cracking stage of labile source materials, after which the C₂ gas is enriched in ¹³C by diffusion or biological alternation at the generation or accumulation site. The homogenous ¹³C₁ values may be one of the geochemical characteristics of gases acquired at depth which are less altered in the case of rapid diffusive gas migration to the seafloor.