Isoseismals of the strongest Friuli aftershocks of September 1976

Summary Isoseismal maps of the three strongest Friuli aftershocks of September 1976 were compiled using the contributions from European countries within the shaken area. The characteristic features of the macroseismic fields are discussed.     

The annual cycle and the predictability of the tropical coupled ocean-atmosphere system

Summary Using large-scale circulation statistics from the Pacific Ocean basin, predictability of the coupled ocean-atmosphere system on interannual time scales is found both to be limited in extent and to possess a strong annual cycle. Irrespective of when lagged correlations are commenced, correlations decrease rapidly through the boreal spring, indicating an inherent predictability limitation for large scale coupled oceanicatmospheric processes such as El Niño. Long term prediction experiments using numerical coupled-models show that the models are excellent facsimiles of the real system. They, too, encounter the predictability barrier and exhibit a substantial decrease in observation-prediction correlation across the boreal spring. Thus, a predictive system based solely on the interactive physics of the Pacific Basin appears limited to a maximum of less than one year and a minimum of only one or two months.Two hypotheses are made to explain the existence of the predictability barrier. First, it is argued that the tropical coupled system is at its frailest state during the boreal spring and that the signal-to-noise ratio is weakest. In such a system, maximum random error growth may occur as the atmosphere and the ocean become temporally detached and wander onto different climate trajectories. A series of 144 preliminary Monte Carlo experiments were conducted with a coupled ocean-atmosphere model to test the hypothesis. Irrespective of when the experiments were commenced, error growth was maximized at the same time of the year. The second hypothesis suggests that the near-equatorial circulation is perturbed at the time of its weakest state by external influences such as the monsoon and that the climate wanderings are nudged deterministically. There is observational and theoretical evidence to support the hypothesis. Observations suggest that anomalous monsoons impart basin-wide coherent alterations of the wind stress field in the Pacific Ocean. Experiments with a coupled ocean-atmosphere model show that the period of an ENSO event is altered substantially by an anomalous monsoon. Given that there appear to be precursors to anomalous monsoons, it is suggested that there may be ways to avoid the predictability barrier and thus extend prediction of the entire system.Finally, noting that the two hypotheses are not mutually exclusive, they are combined to form a unified theory. As the asymmetric monsoonal and the symmetric near-equatorial heating are in approximate quadrature, it is argued that the monsoons influence the Walker circulation during the boreal spring. However, during the boreal fall and early winter the near-equatorial heating variability dominates the winter monsoon.With 18 Figures     

Comparison of atmospheric aerosol backscattering and air mass back trajectories

Summary Atmospheric backscattering from aerosol particulates has been measured over the Atlantic at 10.6 μm wavelength with an airborne, coherent heterodyne, lidar, and corresponding air mass back trajectories have been calculated. These back trajectories (usually extended up to 10 days prior to the backscatter measurement) have shown very diverse origins for the air parcels at different altitudes. In many cases it has been possible to attribute the observed levels of scattering to these origins over oceanic, arctic, continental, industrial etc. regions. This is illustrated by 6 flight records: out of Ascension Island in the South Atlantic; over the Azores in the mid North Atlantic; over the UK and the North Sea; and in the Arctic along 71° North. In each of these regions the profiles of backscatter versus altitude show highly variable features; remarkably different origins for air masses at different altitudes are evident from the corresponding back trajectory analyses. It is thus possible for the first time to present probable explanations for the different levels of scattering observed at different altitudes. Received July 14, 2000 Revised May 14, 2001     

Depositional architecture and sequence stratigraphy of the Karoo basin floor to shelf edge succession, Laingsburg depocentre, South Africa

The Laingsburg depocentre of the SW Karoo Basin, South Africa preserves a well-exposed 1200 m thick succession of upper Permian strata that record the early filling of a basin during an icehouse climate. Uniformly fine-grained sandstones were derived from far-field granitic sources, possibly in Patagonia, although the coeval staging and delivery systems are not preserved. Early condensed shallow marine deposits are overlain by distal basin plain siltstone-prone turbidites and volcanic ashes. An order of magnitude increase in siliciclastic input to the basin plain is represented by up to 270 m of siltstone with thin sandstone turbidites (Vischkuil Formation). The upper Vischkuil Formation comprises three depositional sequences, each bounded by a regionally developed zone of soft sediment deformation and associated 20-45 m thick debrite that represent the initiation of a major sand delivery system. The overlying 300 m thick sandy basin-floor fan system (Unit A) is divisible into three composite sequences arranged in a progradational-aggradational-retrogradational stacking pattern, followed by up to 40 m of basin-wide hemipelagic claystone. This claystone contains Interfan A/B, a distributive lobe system that lies 10 m beneath Unit B, a sandstone-dominated succession that averages 150 m thickness and is interpreted to represent a toe of slope channelized lobe system. Unit B and the A/B interfan together comprise 4 depositional sequences in a composite sequence with an overall basinward-stepping stacking pattern, overlain by 30 m of hemipelagic claystone. The overlying 400 m thick submarine slope succession (Fort Brown Formation) is characterized by 10-120 m thick sand-prone to heterolithic packages separated by 30-70 m thick claystone units. On the largest scale the slope stratigraphy is defined by two major cycles interpreted as composite sequence sets. The lower cycle comprises lithostratigraphic Units B/C, C and D while the upper cycle includes lithostratigraphic Units D/E, E and F. In each case a sandy basal composite sequence is represented by an intraslope lobe (Units B/C and D/E respectively). The second composite sequence in each cycle (Units C and E respectively) is characterized by slope channel-levee systems with distributive lobes 20-30 km down dip. The uppermost composite sequence in each cycle (Units D and F respectively) are characterised by deeply entrenched slope valley systems. Most composite sequences comprise three sequences separated by thin (<5 m thick) claystones. Architectural style is similar at individual sequence scale for comparable positions within each composite sequence set and each composite sequence. The main control on stratigraphic development is interpreted as late icehouse glacio-eustasy but along-strike changes associated with changing shelf edge delivery systems and variable bathymetry due to differential substrate compaction complicate the resultant stratigraphy.     

Four-dimensional data assimilation method based on SVD: Theoretical aspect

Summary A new method of four-dimensional data assimilation based on Singular Value Decomposition (SVD) is proposed. In it, a set of atmospheric states is obtained by integrating a numerical weather prediction model and simulated observations are taken and calculated from the model variables. Then the SVD technique is used to create the base vectors from this coupled data set. Finally, the analysis is obtained by projecting actual observation data into a space spanned by the base vectors. Using this approach, the four-dimensional data assimilation becomes a simple linear inverse problem the linearization of the nonlinear forward model is avoided, and the developments of the adjoint and background error covariance matrix are no longer needed. Since the SVD technique is used here, the method is simply called 4DSVD.     

Spatial and temporal variability and drivers of net ecosystem metabolism in western Gulf of Mexico estuaries

Net ecosystem metabolism (NEM) is becoming a commonly used ecological indicator of estuarine ecosystem metabolic rates. Estuarine ecosystem processes are spatially and temporally variable, but the corresponding variability in NEM has not been properly assessed. Spatial and temporal variability in NEM was assessed in four western Gulf of Mexico shallow water estuaries. NEM was calculated from high-frequency dissolved oxygen measurements. Interbay, intrabay, and water column spatial scales were assessed for NEM, gross primary production (GPP), and respiration (R) rate variability. Seasonal, monthly, and daily temporal scales in NEM, GPP, and R were also assessed. Environmental conditions were then compared to NEM to determine which factors were correlated with each temporal and spatial scale. There was significant NEM spatial variability on interbay, intrabay, and water column spatial scales. Significant spatial variability was ephemeral, so it was difficult to ascertain which environmental conditions were most influential at each spatial scale. Significant temporal variability in NEM on seasonal, monthly, and daily scales was found and it was correlated to temperature, salinity, and freshwater inflow, respectively. NEM correlated strongly with dissolved oxygen, temperature, and salinity, but the relationships where different in each bay. The dynamics of NEM on daily scales indicate that freshwater inflow events may be the main driver of NEM in the semiarid estuaries studied. The variable nature of NEM found here is further evidence that it is not valid to use single station monitoring deployments for assessment of whole estuarine ecosystem metabolic rates in large ecosystems. The relationship between NEM and temperature, salinity, and freshwater inflow events could drive predictive models assessing the potential influence of projected climate change and watershed development scenarios on estuarine metabolic rates.     

Architecture of coastal and alluvial deposits in an extensional basin: the Carboniferous Joggins Formation of eastern Canada

Abstract The Joggins Formation was deposited in the Cumberland Basin, which experienced rapid mid‐Carboniferous subsidence on bounding faults. A 600 m measured section of coastal and alluvial plain strata comprises cycles tens to hundreds of metres thick. The cycles commence with coal and fossiliferous limestone/siltstone intervals, interpreted as widespread flooding events. These intervals are overlain by coarsening‐upward successions capped by planar‐based sandstone mounds, up to 100 m in width that represent the progradation of small, river‐generated delta lobes into a standing body of open water developed during transgression. The overlying strata contain sand‐rich heterolithic packages, 1–8 m thick, that are associated with channel bodies 2–3 m thick and 10–50 m wide. Drifted plant debris, Calamites groves and erect lycopsid trees are preserved within these predominantly green‐grey heterolithic sediments, which were deposited on a coastal wetland or deltaic plain traversed by channel systems. The cycles conclude with red siltstones, containing calcareous nodules, that are interbedded with thin sandstones and associated with both single‐storey channel bodies (1–1·5 m thick and 2–3 m wide) and larger, multistorey channels (3–6 m thick) with incised margins. Numerous channel bodies at the same level suggest that multiple‐channel, anastomosed river systems were developed on a well‐drained floodplain. Many minor flooding surfaces divide the strata into parasequences with dominantly progradational and aggradational stacking patterns. Multistorey channel bodies are relatively thin, fine grained and modestly incised, and palaeosols are immature and cumulative. The abundance and prominence of flooding surfaces suggests that base‐level rise was enhanced, whereas the lack of evidence for abrupt basinward stepping of facies belts, coupled with the absence of strong fluvial incision and mature palaeosols, suggests that base‐level fall was suppressed. These architectural features are considered to reflect a tectonic architectural signature, in accordance with the high‐subsidence basinal setting. Evidence for restricted marine influence and variation in floral assemblages suggests modulation by eustatic and climatic effects, although their relative importance is uncertain.     

The oxidation states of cobalt and selected metals in Pacific ferromanganese nodules

A study of the oxidation states of metals in selected Pacific ferromanganese nodules by x-ray photoelectron spectroscopy (XPS) indicates the presence of Co(III), Pb(II), Pb(IV), Fe(III) and Ti(IV). These findings are based on measurements of core electron binding energies and an evaluation of the core electron shake-up satellite features.     

A PCSWMM/GIS-based water balance model for the Reesor Creek watershed

This paper presents the results of a study of a watershed experiencing the pressures of land-use change resulting from urban development. The study was undertaken to facilitate an understanding of the water balance of the watershed by developing and implementing watershed procedures that are to be addressed in a watershed plan. There were three components to the research: firstly, observation of the effects of spatially distributed rainfall measurements and their effect on modelling were assessed. Secondly, the model was then calibrated by observing how differing techniques can discretize both the landscape (e.g. land-use and soil type) and incoming precipitation. Finally, a modelling methodology was developed to integrate a Geographic Information System and a hydrologic model (e.g. Storm Water Management Model) in a water balance analysis on a watershed basis. Results show that, under certain conditions, kriging spatially distributed rainfall values can help predict rainfall at ungauged (virtual) sites. Discretization of a watershed was found to affect the differences between measured and generated runoff volumes; however, this can be refined with calibration. It was seen that a strong correlation between measured and predicted rainfall values did not always guarantee a strong relationship between measured and generated runoff Recommendations include the use of a longer time series of rainfall, streamflow and predicted rainfall to observe temporal variations, and the need to assess the differences in modelled rainfall values generated by various surface interpolation methods (e.g. Inverse Distance Weighting and other kriging options) currently available in GIS packages.     

Fifty-thousand-year vegetation and climate history of Noel Kempff Mercado National Park, Bolivian Amazon

Pollen and charcoal records from two large, shallow lakes reveal that throughout most of the past 50,000 yr Noel Kempff Mercado National Park, in northeastern lowland Bolivia (southwestern Amazon Basin), was predominantly covered by savannas and seasonally dry semideciduous forests. Lowered atmospheric CO₂ concentrations, in combination with a longer dry season, caused expansion of dry forests and savannas during the last glacial period, especially at the last glacial maximum. These ecosystems persisted until the mid-Holocene, although they underwent significant species reassortment. Forest communities containing a mixture of evergreen and semideciduous species began to expand between 6000 and 3000 ¹⁴C yr B.P. Humid evergreen rain forests expanded to cover most of the area within the past 2000 ¹⁴C yr B.P., coincident with a reduction in fire frequencies. Comparisons between modern pollen spectra and vegetation reveal that the Moraceae-dominated rain forest pollen spectra likely have a regional source area at least 2-3 km beyond the lake shore, whereas the grass- and sedge-dominated savanna pollen spectra likely have a predominantly local source area. The Holocene vegetation changes are consistent with independent paleoprecipitation records from the Bolivian Altiplano and paleovegetation records from other parts of southwestern Amazonia. The progressive expansion in rain forests through the Holocene can be largely attributed to enhanced convective activity over Amazonia, due to greater seasonality of insolation in the Southern Hemisphere tropics driven by the precession cycle according to the Milankovitch Astronomical Theory.