Climate predictability experiments with a general circulation model

The atmospheric response to the evolution of the global sea surface temperatures from 1979 to 1992 is studied using the Max-Planck-Institut 19 level atmospheric general circulation model, ECHAM3 at T 42 resolution. Five separate 14-year integrations are performed and results are presented for each individual realization and for the ensemble-averaged response. The results are compared to a 30-year control integration using a climate monthly mean state of the sea surface temperatures and to analysis data. It is found that the ECHAM3 model, by and large, does reproduce the observed response pattern to El Nino and La Niña. During the El Nino events, the subtropical jet streams in both hemispheres are intensified and displaced equatorward, and there is a tendency towards weak upper easterlies over the equator. The Southern Oscillation is a very stable feature of the integrations and is accurately reproduced in all experiments. The inter-annual variability at middle- and high-latitudes, on the other hand, is strongly dominated by chaotic dynamics, and the tropical SST forcing only modulates the atmospheric circulation. The potential predictability of the model is investigated for six different regions. Signal to noise ratio is large in most parts of the tropical belt, of medium strength in the western hemisphere and generally small over the European area. The ENSO signal is most pronounced during the boreal spring. A particularly strong signal in the precipitation field in the extratropics during spring can be found over the southern United States. Western Canada is normally warmer during the warm ENSO phase, while northern Europe is warmer than normal during the ENSO cold phase. The reason is advection of warm air due to a more intense Pacific low than normal during the warm ENSO phase and a more intense Icelandic low than normal during the cold ENSO phase, respectively.     

European winter precipitation extremes and large-scale circulation: a coupled model and its scenarios

Summary The physical coupling between the occurrence of winter heavy precipitation in Europe and the surface large-scale circulation is studied by isolating their coupled modes with a singular value decomposition technique. The leading mode is a clear manifestation of the North Atlantic Oscillation forcing. The second mode reflects the influence of a centre-of-action in the pressure field westward of the British Isles. The Hadley Centre Coupled Model (3^rd generation) is skilful in reproducing these two modes and an eastward extension of the North Atlantic Oscillation towards the Mediterranean Basin is projected under two future climatic scenarios. This extension yields an increase in the North Atlantic Oscillation forcing over the occurrence of heavy precipitation in several regions of Southern Europe, which is corroborated by the changes in the coupling of the daily precipitation. A combination of the first six coupled modes of the daily precipitation revealed that its amounts in some parts of Western Europe and the Mediterranean are effectively governed by the large-scale circulation. The model is still reasonably skilful in reproducing this large-scale coupling. The projected modifications, both in the strength and in the patterns of the coupled modes, explain important fractions of the projected changes in variance, which ultimately have implications in the occurrence of heavy precipitation in several European areas. Therefore, the ability of a model in reproducing the large-scale forcing over the daily precipitation is important for the reliability of its projections of the occurrence of heavy precipitation in Europe.     

First Results of Measurements with a Newly-Designed Phased-Array Sodar with RASS

Summary At a special measuring site for boundary-layer studies as well as land-surface processes the Meteorological Observatory Lindenberg of the German Weather Service (DWD) has recently put into operation a newly-desi gned phased-array SODAR/RASS, which has been developed by METEK on behalf of the DWD. This system provides the vertical profiles of the three-di mensional wind vector in the boundary layer on an operational basis and is furthermore suitable for getting information on the profile of virtual temperature up to about 400 m in height based on the addition of RASS components. The following paper describes both the technique of this SODAR/RASS and the various modes of operation as well as the different options in managing the system. First evaluations on the data availability concerning the maximum height coverage will give an impression on the system’s capabilities. Finally, the accuracy of the derived profiles of winds and temperature will be investigated by means of comparisons of the SODAR/RASS data with measurements of a six-sonde tethered-balloon system as well as meteorological data of a 99 m tower in the vicinity of the system. Received November 27, 1998 Revised April 9, 1999     

酒泉绿洲夏季大气边界层加热(冷却)特征初探

利用“绿洲系统能量与水分循环过程观测与数值研究”的观测资料和酒泉站的地面和探空气象资料,计算了酒泉绿洲夏季大气边界层的加热（冷却）率,分析了酒泉绿洲近地面层和行星边界层的大气加热（冷却）率逐日变化,研究了不同典型天气下大气加热（冷却）率的变化特征。结果表明,酒泉绿洲近地面层和行星边界层内,大气加热（冷却）率具有明显的逐日变化特征;近地面层和行星边界层及整个大气层白天的大气加热率和夜晚的大气冷却率基本相当,大气能量基本守恒;日照时数、云量和特殊天气过程（如冷空气活动、沙尘天气和降水等）对大气加热（冷却）率有很大影响。     

西藏山地淋溶土系列与大骨节病分布的关系

通过西藏大骨节病县与非病县棕壤与暗棕壤各土属、土种的分布面积的对比分析对西藏耕型棕壤和暗棕壤分布与西藏大骨节病区分布的关系进行研究.结果表明,西藏大骨节病的分布与棕壤、暗棕壤为主的耕型淋溶土壤的分布有一定的联系,但土壤母质和发育程度不同,对大骨节病的分布影响不同.对于残坡积土壤,病区趋于分布在泥质土壤环境,而麻砂质土壤基本是大骨节病的非病区.同样的母质环境,大骨节病区趋于分布在土壤厚度较小,发育程度较低的地区;就洪积土壤来说,其与大骨节病分布的关系似乎与土壤质地有一定的联系,底部砾石含量高的土壤多集中在大骨节病地区.总体而言,山地棕壤、暗棕壤环境是西藏大骨节病区的主要土壤类型之一,西藏未开发的自然棕壤和暗棕壤环境将是大骨节病潜在危险区,因此系统研究西藏典型大骨节病区的土壤分异对探讨未来西藏大骨节病的分布与流行有重要意义.     

MARS:A TUTORIAL

This tutorial paper presents a simplified view of one of the more recently published multivariatecalibration methods particularly suited to dealing with non-linear data sets.The method is referred toas MARS and stands for multivariate adaptive regression splines.Simple examples are provided toexplain the workings of the method.