Subsonic aircraft and ozone trends

Growth in subsonic air traffic over the past 20 years has been dramatic, with an annual increase of }6.1% over the decade between 1978 and 1988. Furthermore, aircraft activities in the year 2000 are predicted to be double those of 1990, with a shift towards more high-flying, longhaul subsonics. Aircraft exhaust gases increase the amount of nitrogen oxides (NO _x ) in the upper troposphere/lower stratosphere through injection at cruise altitudes. Given that NO _x is instrumental in tropospheric ozone production and stratospheric ozone destruction, it is important to determine the influence of subsonic aircraft NO _x emissions on levels of atmospheric ozone. This paper describes calculations designed to investigate the impact that subsonic aircraft may already have had on the atmosphere during the 1980s, run in a 2-D chemical-radiative-transport model. The results indicate a significant increase in upper tropospheric ozone over the decade arising from aircraft emissions. However, when comparing model results with observational data, certain discrepancies appear. Lower stratospheric ozone loss over the 1980s does not appear to be greatly altered by the inclusion of aircraft emissions in the model. However, given the trend in greater numbers of long-haul subsonic aircraft, this factor must be considered in any further calculations.     

Modelling daily temperature extremes: recent climate and future changes over Europe

Probability distributions of daily maximum and minimum temperatures in a suite of ten RCMs are investigated for (1) biases compared to observations in the present day climate and (2) climate change signals compared to the simulated present day climate. The simulated inter-model differences and climate changes are also compared to the observed natural variability as reflected in some very long instrumental records. All models have been forced with driving conditions from the same global model and run for both a control period and a future scenario period following the A2 emission scenario from IPCC. We find that the bias in the fifth percentile of daily minimum temperatures in winter and at the 95th percentile of daily maximum temperature during summer is smaller than 3 (±5°C) when averaged over most (all) European sub-regions. The simulated changes in extreme temperatures both in summer and winter are larger than changes in the median for large areas. Differences between models are larger for the extremes than for mean temperatures. A comparison with historical data shows that the spread in model predicted changes in extreme temperatures is larger than the natural variability during the last centuries.     

Global land mapping of satellite-observed CO2 total columns using spatio-temporal geostatistics

ABSTRACT

This study presents an approach for generating a global land mapping dataset of the satellite measurements of CO₂ total column (XCO₂) using spatio-temporal geostatistics, which makes full use of the joint spatial and temporal dependencies between observations. The mapping approach considers the latitude-zonal seasonal cycles and spatio-temporal correlation structure of XCO₂, and obtains global land maps of XCO₂, with a spatial grid resolution of 1° latitude by 1° longitude and temporal resolution of 3 days. We evaluate the accuracy and uncertainty of the mapping dataset in the following three ways: (1) in cross-validation, the mapping approach results in a high correlation coefficient of 0.94 between the predictions and observations, (2) in comparison with ground truth provided by the Total Carbon Column Observing Network (TCCON), the predicted XCO₂ time series and those from TCCON sites are in good agreement, with an overall bias of 0.01?ppm and a standard deviation of the difference of 1.22?ppm and (3) in comparison with model simulations, the spatio-temporal variability of XCO₂ between the mapping dataset and simulations from the CT2013 and GEOS-Chem are generally consistent. The generated mapping XCO₂ data in this study provides a new global geospatial dataset in global understanding of greenhouse gases dynamics and global warming.     

Changes in timber haul emissions in the context of shifting forest management and infrastructure

The issues surrounding 'Reduced Emissions from Deforestation and Forest Degradation' (REDD) have become a major component of continuing negotiations under the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC). This paper aims to address two key requirements of any potential REDD mechanism: first, the generation of measurable, reportable and verifiable (MRV) REDD credits; and secondly, the sustainable and efficient provision of emission reductions under a robust financing regime. To ensure the supply of MRV credits, we advocate the establishment of an 'International Emission Reference Scenario Coordination Centre' (IERSCC). The IERSCC would act as a global clearing house for harmonized data to be used in implementing reference level methodologies. It would be tasked with the collection, reporting and subsequent processing of earth observation, deforestation- and degradation driver information in a globally consistent manner. The IERSCC would also assist, coordinate and supervise the computation of national reference scenarios according to rules negotiated under the UNFCCC. To overcome the threats of "market flooding" on the one hand and insufficient economic incentives for REDD on the other hand, we suggest an 'International Investment Reserve' (IIR) as REDD financing framework. In order to distribute the resources of the IIR we propose adopting an auctioning mechanism. Auctioning not only reveals the true emission reduction costs, but might also allow for incentivizing the protection of biodiversity and socio-economic values. The introduced concepts will be vital to ensure robustness, environmental integrity and economic efficiency of the future REDD mechanism.     

1988 COMPILATION OF ELEMENTAL CONCENTRATION DATA FOR USGS AGV-1, GSP-1 AND G-2

Concentration data on up to 90 individual constituents in USGS AGV-1, GSP-1, and G-2 have been collected from 1270 journal articles and technical reports. These data are summarized in consensus (mean) values with uncertainties expressed as +/- one standard deviation. Mean values are also calculated as a function of analytical procedure and all raw data are given in the tables. Recommended values are proposed based upon data criteria used by NIST (National Institute of Standards and Technology, formerly the National Bureau of Standards or NBS).     

Quantifying climatic change through the last glacial–interglacial transition based on lake isotope palaeohydrology from central Turkey

Questions remain as to the nature of climatic change through the last glacial–interglacial transition in the eastern Mediterranean region, particularly the relative contribution of evaporation and precipitation to regional water balance. Here changes in oxygen isotope values through this time period from Eski Acıgöl, a crater lake in central Turkey, are investigated using hydrological and isotope mass balance models. These allow changes in evaporation and precipitation to be quantified and their relative importance evaluated. We show that it is the volumetric flux rate of water passing through the lake system and not the precipitation-to-evaporation ratio per se which controlled the stable isotope record in Eski Acıgöl. Early Holocene precipitation is shown to be much greater than that during both the latter part of the last glaciation and the present day. We test these calculated values against other records in the same region, firstly with other lake records in Anatolia, the Konya basin and Lake Van, and secondly with isotope-inferred palaeo-precipitation data from Soreq cave in Israel. This reveals a contrast between pre- and post-LGM precipitation values in Turkey (wetter and drier, respectively) and also suggests that during the last glacial–interglacial transition there was a more marked precipitation gradient than at present between northern/interior and southern/coastal parts of the eastern Mediterranean region.     

Paleoecological and archaeological implications of a late Pleistocene/Early holocene record of vegetation and climate from the pacific coastal plain of panama

A phytolith record from Monte Oscuro, a crater lake located 10 m above sea level on the Pacific coastal plain of Panama, shows that during the Late Pleistocene the lake bed was dry and savanna-like vegetation expanded at the expense of tropical deciduous forest, the modern potential vegetation. A significant reduction of precipitation below current levels was almost certainly required to effect the changes observed. Core sediment characteristics indicate that permanent inundation of the Monte Oscuro basin with water occurred at about 10,500 ¹⁴C yr B.P. Pollen and phytolith records show that deciduous tropical forest expanded into the lake’s watershed during the early Holocene. Significant burning of the vegetation and increases of weedy plants at ca. 7500 to 7000 ¹⁴C yr B.P. indicate disturbance, which most likely resulted from early human occupation of the seasonal tropical forest near Monte Oscuro and the development of slash-and-burn methods of cultivation.     

Effects of precipitation pulses on water and carbon dioxide fluxes in two semiarid ecosystems: measurement and modeling

Modeling of soil?Cwater, ?Cheat and ?Ccarbon (C) fluxes provides an important tool for predicting mass and energy transfers based on a hydraulic-, thermal- and C-mass balance approach. Model predictions were evaluated using measured data from two water-limited study sites, one pasture and one supporting an alfalfa crop, to indentify differences between these ecosystems. Soil water content, temperature, and evapotranspiration (ET) data were used to validate soil water dynamics components of a process-based numerical model. Soil surface CO₂ efflux estimates (i.e., fluxes from soil respiration) were also made to estimate soil CO₂ emissions. The results show that the Hydrus-1D numerical model can be parameterized to simulate the soil hydrodynamics and CO₂ fluxes measured at both locations. Rainfall and irrigation events triggering increases in plant root and microbial respiration rates were simulated to recreate observed pulsed CO₂ fluxes. There were distinct differences in ET and soil CO₂ effluxes between the ecosystems and watering events significantly modified the fluxes. Differences in potential evapotranspiration and soil texture could help explain these discrepancies. The results demonstrate that numerical modeling can be a useful tool for estimating soil surface fluxes in calibrated ecosystems when micrometeorological methods may not be suitable.     

Anomalous isotopic compositions of Sr,Ar and O in the Mesozoic diabase dikes of Liberia,West Africa

The Mesozoic diabase dikes of Liberia are tholeiites whose ⁸⁷Sr/⁸⁶Sr and ⁸⁷Rb/⁸⁶Sr ratios scatter widely on the Rb-Sr isochron diagram. The problem is attributed to differences in the initial ⁸⁷Sr/⁸⁶Sr ratios of these rocks which range from 0.70311 to 0.70792, assuming a uniform age of 186 Ma for the dikes and using (⁸⁷Rb)=1.42 × 10^–11y^–1. The range of values is similar to that observed in the Mesozoic basalt flows and dikes of other Gondwana continents.New whole-rock K-Ar dates confirm previous conclusions that the diabase dikes in the Liberian and Pan-African age provinces of Liberia absorbed extraneous ⁴⁰Ar after intrusion. Only the dikes in the Paynesville Sandstone have K-Ar dates that range from 117 Ma to 201 Ma and may not contain extraneous ⁴⁰Ar. However, dikes from all three age provinces of Liberia have elevated initial ⁸⁷Sr/⁸⁶Sr ratios. These results indicate that contamination with radiogenic ⁸⁷Sr occurred primarily before intrusion of the magma whereas the addition of extraneous ⁴⁰Ar occurred after emplacement and reflects the age and mineral composition of the country rock.The ¹⁸O values of the Liberian diabase range from +5.6/% to +9.10/% and correlate positively with initial ⁸⁷Sr/⁸⁶Sr ratios. The data can be modeled by fractional crystallization and simultaneous assimilation of crustal rocks by the magma. However, samples containing amphibole and biotite replacing pyroxene deviate from the Sr-O isotope trajectories of the model and appear to have been depleted in ¹⁸O and enriched in ⁸⁷Sr by interactions with groundwater at high temperature.Laboratory for Isotope Geology and Geochemistry Contribution No. 76