Green’s function of the linearized Saint-Venant equations in laminar and turbulent flows

In the present paper, an analytical expression of the Green’s function of linearized Saint-Venant equations (LSVEs) for shallow water waves is provided and applied to analyse the propagation of a perturbation superposed to a uniform flow. Independently of the kinematic character of the base flow, i.e., subcritical or supercritical uniform flow, the effects of a non-uniform vertical velocity profile and a non-constant resistance coefficient are accounted for. The use of the Darcy-Weisbach friction law allows a unified treatment of both laminar and turbulent conditions. The influence on the wave evolution of the wall roughness and the fluid viscosity are finally discussed, showing that in turbulent regime the assumption of constant friction coefficient may lead to an underestimation of both amplification and damping factors on the wave fronts, especially at low Reynolds numbers. This conclusion has to be accounted for, particularly in describing hyper-concentrated suspensions or other kinds of Newtonian mixtures, for which the high values of the kinematic viscosity may lead to relatively low Reynolds numbers.     

Inelastic displacement ratio of near‐source pulse‐like ground motions

Near‐source pulse‐like records resulting from rupture's directivity have been found to depart from so‐called ordinary ground motions in terms of both elastic and inelastic structural seismic demands. In fact, response spectra may be strong if compared with what is expected from common ground motion prediction equations. Moreover, because not all spectral ordinates are affected uniformly, a peculiar spectral shape, with an especially amplified region depending on the pulse period, may follow. Consequently, inelastic seismic demand may show trends different to records not identified as pulse‐like (i.e., ordinary). This latter aspect is addressed in the study reported in this short communication, where a relatively large dataset of identified impulsive near‐source records is used to derive an analytical‐form relationship for the inelastic displacement ratio. It is found that, similar to what was proposed in literature for soft soil sites, a double‐opposite‐bumps form is required to match the empirical data as a function of the structural period over the pulse period ratio. The relationship builds consistently on previous studies on the topic, yet displays different shape with respect to the most common equations for static structural assessment procedures. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Analytical modelling of near‐source pulse‐like seismic demand for multi‐linear backbone oscillators

Nonlinear static procedures, which relate the seismic demand of a structure to that of an equivalent single‐degree‐of‐freedom oscillator, are well‐established tools in the performance‐based earthquake engineering paradigm. Initially, such procedures made recourse to inelastic spectra derived for simple elastic–plastic bilinear oscillators, but the request for demand estimates that delve deeper into the inelastic range, motivated investigating the seismic demand of oscillators with more complex backbone curves. Meanwhile, near‐source (NS) pulse‐like ground motions have been receiving increased attention, because they can induce a distinctive type of inelastic demand. Pulse‐like NS ground motions are usually the result of rupture directivity, where seismic waves generated at different points along the rupture front arrive at a site at the same time, leading to a double‐sided velocity pulse, which delivers most of the seismic energy. Recent research has led to a methodology for incorporating this NS effect in the implementation of nonlinear static procedures. Both of the previously mentioned lines of research motivate the present study on the ductility demands imposed by pulse‐like NS ground motions on oscillators that feature pinching hysteretic behaviour with trilinear backbone curves. Incremental dynamic analysis is used considering 130 pulse‐like‐identified ground motions. Median, 16% and 84% fractile incremental dynamic analysis curves are calculated and fitted by an analytical model. Least‐squares estimates are obtained for the model parameters, which importantly include pulse period T_p. The resulting equations effectively constitute an R ? μ ? T ? T_p relation for pulse‐like NS motions. Potential applications of this result towards estimation of NS seismic demand are also briefly discussed. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Near‐source seismic demand and pulse‐like records: A discussion for L'Aquila earthquake

Rupture directivity effects in ground motion are known since many years to both seismologists and earthquake engineers, i.e. in sites that are in a particular geometrical configuration with respect to the rupture, the velocity fault‐normal signals may show a large pulse which occurs at the beginning of the record and contains the most of energy. The results are waveforms different from ordinary ground motions recorded in the far field or in geometrical conditions not favorable with respect to directivity. Current attenuation laws are not able to capture such effect well, if at all, and current probabilistic seismic hazard analysis is not able to predict the resulting peculiar spectral shape. Moreover, it is believed that structures with dynamic behavior in a range of periods related to the pulse period may be subjected to underestimated seismic demand. In the paper this is investigated and increments in both elastic and inelastic seismic actions are quantified using a large dataset of records, from the next generation attenuation project (NGA), in which a fraction is comprised of velocity pulses identified in other studies. These analyses employ recently developed tools and procedures to assess directivity effects and to quantify the associated threat in terms of seismic action on structures. Subsequently, the same tools are used in one of the first attempts to identify near‐source effects in the data recorded during a normal faulting earthquake, the mainshock of the recent Abruzzo (central Italy) sequence, leading to conclude that pulse‐like effects are likely to have occurred in the event, that is (1) observation of pulse‐like records in some near‐source stations is in fair agreement with existing predictive models, (2) the increment in seismic demand shown by pulse‐like ground motion components complies with the results of the analysis of the NGA data, and (3) seismic demand in non‐impulsive recordings is generally similar to what expected for ordinary records. The results may be useful as a benchmark for inclusion of near‐source effect in design values of seismic action and structural risk analysis. Copyright © 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

The displacement coefficient method in near‐source conditions

The use of nonlinear static procedures for performance‐based seismic design (PBSD) and assessment is a well‐established practice, which has found its way into modern codes for quite some time. On the other hand, near‐source (NS) ground motions are receiving increasing attention, because they can carry seismic demand systematically different and larger than that of the so‐called ordinary records. This is due to phenomena such as rupture forward directivity (FD), which can lead to distinct pulses appearing in the velocity time‐history of the ground motion. The framework necessary for taking FD into account in probabilistic seismic hazard analysis (PSHA) has recently been established. The objective of the present study is to discuss the extension of nonlinear static procedures, specifically the displacement coefficient method (DCM), with respect to the inelastic demand associated with FD. In this context, a methodology is presented for the implementation of the DCM toward estimating NS seismic demand, by making use of the results of NS‐PSHA and a semi‐empirical equation for NS‐FD inelastic displacement ratio. An illustrative application of the DCM, with explicit inclusion of NS‐pulse‐like effects, is given for a set of typical plane R/C frames designed under Eurocode provisions. Different scenarios are considered in the application and nonlinear dynamic analysis results are obtained and discussed with respect to the static procedure estimates. Conclusions drawn from the results may help to assess the importance of incorporating NS effects in PBSD. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Elastic period of sub-standard reinforced concrete moment resisting frame buildings

The fundamental period has a primary role in seismic design and assessment as it is the main feature of the structure that allows one to determine the elastic demand and, indirectly, the required inelastic performance in static procedures. In fact, the definition of easy to manage relationships for the assessment of the elastic period has been the subject of a significant deal of both experimental and numerical/analytical studies, some of which have been acknowledged by codes and guidelines worldwide. Moreover, this kind of information is useful for territorial-scale seismic loss assessment methodologies. In the majority of cases, the assessment of the period is considered as function of the structural system classification and number of storeys or height. Reinforced concrete structures, comprising most of the building stock in Italy and in seismic prone areas in Europe and in the Mediterranean region, were built after the Second World War and are designed with obsolete seismic codes, if not for gravity loads only. Therefore, a class of buildings featuring the same height and/or number of storeys may show a significant variability of the structural system. This, along with the contribution of the stair module, may affect the elastic periods in the two main directions of a three-dimensional building. In the study presented these issues are investigated with reference to a population of existing RC structures designed acknowledging the practice at the time of supposed construction (e.g., simulated design) and with reference to the relative enforced code. The elastic period is evaluated for both main directions of the buildings of the considered sample, and regression analysis is employed to capture the dependency of the elastic dynamic properties of the structures as a function of mass and stiffness.     

Operational earthquake loss forecasting: a retrospective analysis of some recent Italian seismic sequences

Operational earthquake forecasting (OEF) relies on real-time monitoring of seismic activity in an area of interest to provide constant (e.g., daily) updates of the expected number of events exceeding a certain magnitude threshold in a given time window (e.g., 1 week). It has been demonstrated that the rates from OEF can be used to estimate expected values of the seismic losses in the same time interval OEF refers to. This is a procedure recently defined as operational earthquake loss forecasting (OELF), which may be the basis for rational short-term seismic risk assessment and management. In Italy, an experimental OELF system, named MANTIS-K, is currently under testing. It is based on weekly rates of earthquakes exceeding magnitude (M) 4, which are updated once a day or right after the occurrence in the country of an M 3.5+ earthquake. It also relies on large-scale structural vulnerability and exposure data, which serve to the system to provide continuously the weekly expected number of: (1) collapsed buildings, (2) displaced residents, and (3) casualties. While the probabilistic basis of MANTIS-K was described in previous work, in this study OELF is critically discussed with respect to three recent Italian seismic sequences. The aim is threefold: (1) illustrating all the features of the OELF system in place; (2) providing insights to evaluate whether if it would have been a useful additional tool for short-term management; (3) recognizing common features, if any, among the losses computed for different sequences.     

Seismic damage accumulation in multiple mainshock–aftershock sequences

Earthquakes are generally clustered, both in time and space. Conventionally, each cluster is made of foreshocks, the mainshock, and aftershocks. Seismic damage can possibly accumulate because of the effects of multiple earthquakes in one cluster and/or because the structure is unrepaired between different clusters. Typically, the performance-based earthquake engineering (PBEE) framework neglects seismic damage accumulation. This is because (i) probabilistic seismic hazard analysis (PSHA) only refers to mainshocks and (ii) classical fragility curves represent the failure probability in one event, of given intensity, only. However, for life cycle assessment, it can be necessary to account for the build-up of seismic losses because of damage in multiple events. It has been already demonstrated that a Markovian model (i.e., a Markov chain), accounting for damage accumulation in multiple mainshocks, can be calibrated by maintaining PSHA from the classical PBEE framework and replacing structural fragility with a set of state-dependent fragility curves. In fact, the Markov chain also works when damage accumulates in multiple aftershocks from a single mainshock of known magnitude and location, if aftershock PSHA replaces classical PSHA. Herein, this model is extended further, developing a Markovian model that accounts, at the same time, for damage accumulation: (i) within any mainshock–aftershock seismic sequence and (ii) among multiple sequences. The model is illustrated through applications to a series of six-story reinforced concrete moment-resisting frame buildings designed for three sites with different seismic hazard levels in Italy. The time-variant reliability assessment results are compared with the classical PBEE approach and the accumulation model that only considers mainshocks, so as to address the relevance of aftershocks for life cycle assessment.     

Peak-over-threshold: Quantifying ground motion beyond design

In performance-based seismic design, as adopted by several building codes worldwide, the structural performance is verified against ground motions that have predetermined exceedance return periods at the site of interest. Such a return period is evaluated by means of probabilistic seismic hazard analysis (PSHA), and the corresponding ground motion is often represented by the uniform hazard spectrum (UHS). The structural performance for ground motions larger than those considered in this design approach is, typically, not explicitly controlled under the assumption that they are sufficiently rare. On one hand, this does not achieve uniform safety at sites characterized by different design ground motions corresponding to the same return period; on the other hand, exceedances of the design spectra are systematically observed over large areas, for example in Italy. The latter issue is because of the nature of UHS, the exceedance of which is likely-to-almost-certain when the construction site is in the epicentral area of moderate-to-high magnitude earthquakes (ie, the design spectrum may be not conservative at these locations), especially if PSHA is based on seismic source zones. The former is partially because of the systematic difference of ground motions for return periods larger than the design one at the different sites. Quantification of the expected ground motion given the exceedance of the design ground motions (ie, the recently introduced as the expected peak-over-threshold or POT) can be of help in quantitatively assessing these issues. In the study, a procedure to compute the POT distribution is derived first; second, POT spectra are introduced and used to help understanding why and how seismic structural reliability of code-conforming structures decreases as the seismic hazard of the site increases; third, expected and 95^th percentile POT maps are shown for Italy to discuss how much high hazard sites are exposed to much larger peak-over-threshold with respect to mid-hazard and low-hazard sites; finally the POT is discussed with respect to the slope of the hazard curve (in log-log scale) at the threshold, a known proxy for ground motion beyond design. All data presented in the maps are made available for the interested reader as a supplemental archive.