Patterns and trends in the perception of seismic risk. Case study: Bucharest Municipality/Romania

This research looks at the very nature of perception of seismic risk, an issue that is not only academically important, but also it can save lives and reduce injury and community costs. The background idea is that citizens in big cities, vulnerable to seismic hazard are living with latent and permanent concerns about a possible earthquake. We were interested in revealing significant aspects of Bucharest citizens’ orientations and tendencies in relation to the possible seismic event. Bucharest, the capital of Romania, is exposed to the greatest seismic hazard compared with other European capitals. The dimensions of study were: the anticipations of seism occurrence, the behavior during the event, evaluations of consequences, support factors, and individual vulnerability. This article is an example of the low cost approach on a sample of 190 citizens, understood as an exercise in attempting to relate population characteristics to various aspects of risk perception. The methodology used was based on a field investigation, where the research agents’ applied one questionnaire containing free/post codified/fan answers concerning: demographic variables, the buildings’ features, and perceptions about the possible earthquake event. The findings of this study showed that the hazard perception significantly associates with aspects concerning the subjects’ orientation toward institutional factors/human relations/negativism, and toward financial/material/moral support in case of disaster etc. It is hoped that this issue will serve to inspire further investigations into this very important and socially sensitive field, due to the fact that hazard analysis and mitigation would be more effective when it takes into account the human dimension of disasters.     

The health state of the Romanian population during the transition period

The paper attempts to make an assessment of the health state of the Romanian population during the transition period; the evolution of the health indicators, analyzed in the European context, shows the precarious health state of the Romanian population, in comparison both to Western countries and to the countries which are crossing a transition phase themselves. The values of the health indicators by region also show inequalities of health, the north-western and south-eastern areas of the country having to face serious problems. The reduction of living standard, the low quality health services, together with other factors associated with lifestyle seem to be responsible for the deterioration of the health state of the Romanian population. The introduction of adequate health and social policies in the following period could bring about an improvement of the situation. This revised version was published online in August 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date.     

The end of the Great Khersonian Drying of Eurasia: Magnetostratigraphic dating of the Maeotian transgression in the Eastern Paratethys

Central Eurasia underwent significant palaeoclimatic and palaeogeographic transformations during the middle to late Miocene. The open marine ecosystems of the Langhian and Serravallian seas progressively collapsed and were replaced in the Tortonian by large endorheic lakes. These lakes experienced major fluctuations in water level, directly reflecting the palaeoclimatic conditions of the region. An extreme lowstand of the Eastern Paratethys lake (?300 m) during the regional Khersonian stage reveals a period of intensely dry conditions in Central Eurasia causing a fragmentation of the Paratethys region. This period of “Great Drying” ended by a climate change towards more humid conditions at the base of the Maeotian stage, resulting in a large transgressive event that reconnected most of the Paratethyan basins. The absence of a robust time frame for the Khersonian–Maeotian interval hampers a direct correlation with the global records and complicates a thorough understanding of the underlying mechanisms. Here we present a new chronostratigraphic framework for the Khersonian and Maeotian deposits of the Dacian Basin of Romania, based on integrated magneto‐biostratigraphic studies on long and continuous sedimentary successions. We show the dry climate conditions in the Khersonian start at 8.6–8.4 Ma. The Khersonian/Maeotian transition is dated at 7.65–7.5 Ma, several million years younger than previous estimates. The Maeotian transgression occurs later (7.5–7.4 Ma) in more marginal and shallower basins, in agreement with the time transgressive character of the flooding. In addition, we date a sudden water level drop of the Eastern Paratethys lake, the Intra‐Maeotian Event (IME), at 6.9 Ma, and hypothesize that this corresponds to a reconnection phase with the Aegean basin of the Mediterranean. Finally, we discuss the potential mechanisms explaining the particularities of the Maeotian transgression and conclude that the low salinity and the seemingly “marine influxes” most likely correspond to episodes of intrabasinal mixing in a gradual and pulsating transgressive setting.     

Weights of evidence method for landslide susceptibility mapping. Prahova Subcarpathians,Romania

The goal of this paper is to assess the landslide susceptibility of a hilly area in the Subcarpathian sector of the Prahova Valley, using the weight of evidence statistical method. This method aims to reduce the multitude of landslide-related conditions to a pattern of a few discrete predictive variables. The method is based on the decision of which state is more likely to occur grounded on the presence or absence of a predictive variable and the occurrence of an event (e.g., landslide) within a pixel. Based on the chi-square test and the Pearson correlation applied on the data, the selected conditionally independent variables in this study were as follows: slope gradient, slope aspect, and land use. Weights calculated individually for the three themes were added to produce a probability estimate of the area. The predictive power of the map was tested on the basis of a split sample of landslides that were not used in the modeling process. The fact that a great percent of the declivitous surfaces are susceptible to landslides shows the dominant manner of the evolution of the Subcarpathian slopes, the acceleration or deceleration of the process being influenced by the land use.     

Multi-criteria vulnerability analysis to earthquake hazard of Bucharest, Romania

The expansive infrastructure, along with the high population density, makes cities highly vulnerable to the severe impacts of natural hazards. In the context of an explosive increase in value of the damage caused by natural disasters, the need for evaluating and visualizing the vulnerability of urban areas becomes a necessity in helping practitioners and stakeholders in their decision-making processes. The paper presented is a piece of exploratory research. The overall aim is to develop a spatial vulnerability approach to address earthquake risk, using a semi-quantitative model. The model uses the analytical framework of a spatial GIS-based multi-criteria analysis. For this approach, we have chosen Bucharest, the capital city of Romania, based on its high vulnerability to earthquakes due to a rapid urban growth and the advanced state of decay of the buildings (most of the building stock were built between 1940 and 1977). The spatial result reveals a circular pattern, pinpointing as hot spots the Bucharest historic centre (located on a meadow and river terrace, and with aged building stock) and peripheral areas (isolated from the emergency centers and defined by precarious social and economic conditions). In a sustainable development perspective, the example of Bucharest shows how spatial patterns shape the ??vulnerability profile?? of the city, based on which decision makers could develop proper prediction and mitigation strategies and enhance the resilience of cities against the risks resulting from the earthquake hazard.     

Diagnosis of landslide risk for individual buildings: insights from Prahova Subcarpathians,Romania

The aim of this study is to quantify the landslide risk for individual buildings using spatial data in a GIS environment. A landslide-prone area from Prahova Rivers’ Subcarpathian Valley was chosen because of its associated landslide hazards and its impact upon human settlements and activities. The bivariate landslide susceptibility index (LSI) was applied to calculate the spatial probability of landslides occurrence. The Landslide Susceptibility Index map was produced by numerically adding the weighted thematic maps for slope gradient and aspect, water table, soil texture, lithology, built environment and land use. Validation curves were obtained using the random-split strategy for two combinations of variables: (a) all seven variables and (b) three variables which showed highest individual success rates with respect to landslides occurrences (slope gradient, water table and land use). The principal pre-disposing factors were found to be slope steepness and groundwater table. Vulnerability was established as the degree of loss to individual buildings resulting from a potential damaging landslide with a given return period in an area. Risk was calculated by multiplying the spatial probability of landslides by the vulnerability for each building and summing up the losses for the selected return period.