Economic,institutional and technological uncertainties of emissions trading—a system dynamics modeling approach

System dynamics models are employed for analyzing the impact of different uncertainties on carbon emission trading–both on national and business levels. Economic, institutional and technological uncertainties significantly influence any country's benefits from emission permit trading. If a country participates in trading on the international market then the possible price range becomes the source of additional uncertainty. In the case of business investment decisions for implementing resource‐saving technology, our system dynamics model shows that the first‐mover investor will get significantly fewer advantages than his followers, which leads to delay in primary investment to the sector.     

Influence of the Solar Global Magnetic-Field Structure Evolution on CMEs

We consider the influence of the solar global magnetic-field structure (GMFS) cycle evolution on the occurrence rate and parameters of coronal mass ejections (CMEs) in Solar Cycles 23?–?24. It has been shown that, over solar cycles, CMEs are not distributed randomly, but they are regulated by evolutionary changes in the GMFS. It is proposed that the generation of magnetic Rossby waves in the solar tachocline results in the GMFS cycle changes. Each Rossby wave period favors a particular GMFS. It is proposed that the changes in wave periods result in GMFS reorganization and consequently in CME location, occurrence rate, and parameter changes. The CME rate and parameters depend on the sharpness of the GMFS changes, the strength of the global magnetic field, and the phase of a cycle.     

Method of negative saturations for flow with variable number of phases in porous media: extension to three-phase multi-component case

Various EOR methods lead to the appearance of specific macroscopic surfaces called interfaces of phase transition (IPT) such that the number of phases on two sides of an IPT is different, and fluids separated by an IPT are in non-equilibrium. Therefore, the flow equations are also different on two sides of an IPT and cannot be deduced from each other by a continuous degeneration, which imposes difficulties in numerical modelling. To describe such systems, we developed a new conceptual mathematical method based on the replacement of the real single-phase fluid by an imaginary multi-phase multi-component continuum having fictitious properties. As the result, the fluid over all zones becomes multi-phase and can be described by uniform multi-phase hydro- and thermodynamic equations, which allows applying the direct numerical simulation. The equivalence principle determines the physical properties of the fictitious multi-phase fluid, as well as the structure of the uniform multi-phase equations. It also proves that the saturation of each phase becomes an extended function negative or higher than unity in non-equilibrium zones, which becomes the efficient method of tracking the interfaces, the number of phases at any point, and their degree of disequilibrium. The method was developed in [1, 2] for the two-phase case. In the present paper, the new version of the method is developed for the three-phase case with gravity, diffusion, and capillarity. We have obtained the new equivalent uniform multi-phase equations which contain additional non-classical terms responsible for the diffusion and gravity across an IPT. The comparison with classical method is presented. The presentation is illustrated by several examples of simulation by means of the code developed by the research group; their concern: EOR by miscible methods and CO ₂ bubble raising in aquifer.     

The latest geodynamics in Asia: Synthesis of data on volcanic evolution,lithosphere motion,and mantle velocities in the Baikal-Mongolian region

From a synthesis of data on volcanic evolution,movement of the lithosphere,and mantle velocities in the Baikal-Mongolian region,we propose a comprehensive model for deep dynamics of Asia that assumes an important role of the Gobi,Baikal,and North Transbaikal transition-layer melting anomalies.This layer was distorted by lower-mantle fluxes at the beginning of the latest geodynamic stage(i.e.in the early late Cretaceous) due to avalanches of slab material that were stagnated beneath the closed fragments of the Solonker,Ural-Mongolian paleoceans and Mongol-Okhotsk Gulf of Paleo-Pacific.At the latest geodynamic stage,Asia was involved in east-southeast movement,and the Pacific plate moved in the opposite direction with subduction under Asia.The weakened upper mantle region of the Gobi melting anomaly provided a counterflow connected with rollback in the Japan Sea area.These dynamics resulted in the formation of the Honshu-Korea flexure of the Pacific slab.A similar weakened upper mantle region of the North Transbaikal melting anomaly was associated with the formation of the Hokkaido-Amur flexure of the Pacific slab,formed due to progressive pull-down of the slab material into the transition layer in the direction of the Pacific plate and Asia convergence.The early—middle Miocene structural reorganization of the mantle processes in Asia resulted in the development of upper mantle low-velocity domains associated with the development of rifts and orogens.We propose that extension at the Baikal Rift was caused by deviator flowing mantle material,initiated under the moving lithosphere in the Baikal melting anomaly.Contraction at the Hangay orogen was created by facilitation of the tectonic stress transfer from the Indo-Asian interaction zone due to the low-viscosity mantle in the Gobi melting anomaly.     

REGIONAL CLIMATE CHANGE SCENARIOS UNDER GLOBAL WARMING IN KAZAKHSTAN

The aim of this paper is to report on the development of regional climate change scenarios for Kazakhstan as the result of increasing of CO₂ concentration in the global atmosphere. These scenarios are used in the assessment of climate change impacts on the agricultural, forest and water resources of Kazakhstan. Climate change scenarios for Kazakhstan to assess both long-term (2× CO₂ in 2075) and short-term (2000, 2010 and 2030) impacts were prepared. The climate conditions under increasing CO₂ concentration were estimated from three General Circulation Models (GCM) outputs: the model of the Canadian Climate Center Model (CCCM), the model of the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (GFDL) and the 1% transient version of the GFDL model (GFDL-T). The near-term climate scenarios were obtained using the probabilistic forecast model (PFM) to the year 2010 and the results of GFDL-T for years 2000 and 2030. A baseline scenario representing the current climate conditions based on observations from 1951 to 1980 was developed. The assessment of climate change in Kazakhstan based on the analysis of 100-years observations is given too. As a result of comparisons of the current climate (based on observed climate) the 1× CO₂ output from GCMs showed that the GFDL model best matches the observed climate. The GFDL model suggests that the minimum increase in temperature is expected in winter, when most of the territory is expected to have temperatures 2.3–4.5 °C higher. The maximum (4.3 to 8.2 °C) is expected to be in spring. CCCM scenario estimates an extreme worming above 11 °C in spring months. GFDL-T outputs provide an intermediate scenario.     

Mineralogy, geochemistry and stratigraphy of the Maslovsky Pt–Cu–Ni sulfide deposit, Noril’sk Region, Russia

We report new data on the stratigraphy, mineralogy and geochemistry of the rocks and ores of the Maslovsky Pt–Cu–Ni sulfide deposit which is thought to be the southwestern extension of the Noril’sk 1 intrusion. Variations in the Ta/Nb ratio of the gabbro-dolerites hosting the sulfide mineralization and the compositions of their pyroxene and olivine indicate that these rocks were produced by two discrete magmatic pulses, which gave rise to the Northern and Southern Maslovsky intrusions that together host the Maslovsky deposit. The Northern intrusion is located inside the Tungusska sandstones and basalt of the Ivakinsky Formation. The Southern intrusion cuts through all of the lower units of the Siberian Trap tuff-lavas, including the Lower Nadezhdinsky Formation; demonstrating that the ore-bearing intrusions of the Noril’sk Complex post-date that unit. Rocks in both intrusions have low TiO₂ and elevated MgO contents (average mean TiO₂ <1 and MgO?=?12?wt.%) that are more primitive than the lavas of the Upper Formations of the Siberian Traps which suggests that the ore-bearing intrusions result from a separate magmatic event. Unusually high concentrations of both HREE (Dy+Yb+Er+Lu) and Y (up to 1.2 and 2.1?ppm, respectively) occur in olivines (Fo_79.5 and 0.25% NiO) from picritic and taxitic gabbro-dolerites with disseminated sulfide mineralization. Thus accumulation of HREE, Y and Ni in the melts is correlated with the mineral potential of the intrusions. The TiO₂ concentration in pyroxene has a strong negative correlation with the Mg# of both host mineral and Mg# of host rock. Sulfides from the Northern Maslovsky intrusion are predominantly chalcopyrite–pyrrhotite–pentlandite with subordinate and minor amounts of cubanite, bornite and millerite and a diverse assemblage of rare precious metal minerals including native metals (Au, Ag and Pd), Sn–Pd–Pt–Bi–Pb compounds and Fe–Pt alloys. Sulfides from the Southern Maslovsky intrusion have δ ³⁴S?=?5–6‰ up to 10.8‰ in two samples whereas the country rock basalt have δ ³⁴S?=?3–4‰, implying there was no in situ assimilation of surrounding rocks by magmas.     

Types of Pyrophyllite Deposits in Foldbelts

Abstract. Pyrophyllite deposits can be divided into five types on the basis of geology and genesis. The first two types are associated with hydrothermally altered rocks in felsic and intermediate volcanogenic suites. They are characterized by their metasomatites and their subsequent mineralogic transformations under varying volcanic conditions. The third type includes deposits and occurrences of metamorphic-metasomatic genesis, which is caused by transformations of terrigenous-sedimentary interbeds in felsic volcanics under greenschist facies conditions. The fourth type is associated with low and mid-temperature stages of hydrothermal vein formation at the limits of volcanogenic and metamorphic strata. The fifth type comprises pyrophyllite occurrences in weathering crusts on metamorphic strata and metasomatite.
The formation conditions and distribution of raw pyrophyllite deposits were influenced by the geodynamic situations and geochemical conditions, such as character of tectonic dislocations, volcanism and chemical composition of hydrothermal solutions.