Prediction of slope stability using multiple linear regression (MLR) and artificial neural network (ANN)

The stability problem of natural slopes, filled slopes, and cut slopes are commonly encountered in Civil Engineering Projects. Predicting the slope stability is an everyday task for geotechnical engineers. In this paper, a study has been done to predict the factor of safety (FOS) of the slopes using multiple linear regression (MLR) and artificial neural network (ANN). A total of 200 cases with different geometric and shear strength parameters were analyzed by using the well-known slope stability methods like Fellenius method, Bishop’s method, Janbu method, and Morgenstern and Price method. The FOS values obtained by these slope stability methods were used to develop the prediction models using MLR and ANN. Further, a few case studies have been done along the Jorabat-Shillong Expressway (NH-40) in India, using the finite element method (FEM). The output values of FEM were compared with the developed prediction models to find the best prediction model and the results were discussed.     

REGIONAL CLIMATE CHANGE SCENARIOS UNDER GLOBAL WARMING IN KAZAKHSTAN

The aim of this paper is to report on the development of regional climate change scenarios for Kazakhstan as the result of increasing of CO₂ concentration in the global atmosphere. These scenarios are used in the assessment of climate change impacts on the agricultural, forest and water resources of Kazakhstan. Climate change scenarios for Kazakhstan to assess both long-term (2× CO₂ in 2075) and short-term (2000, 2010 and 2030) impacts were prepared. The climate conditions under increasing CO₂ concentration were estimated from three General Circulation Models (GCM) outputs: the model of the Canadian Climate Center Model (CCCM), the model of the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (GFDL) and the 1% transient version of the GFDL model (GFDL-T). The near-term climate scenarios were obtained using the probabilistic forecast model (PFM) to the year 2010 and the results of GFDL-T for years 2000 and 2030. A baseline scenario representing the current climate conditions based on observations from 1951 to 1980 was developed. The assessment of climate change in Kazakhstan based on the analysis of 100-years observations is given too. As a result of comparisons of the current climate (based on observed climate) the 1× CO₂ output from GCMs showed that the GFDL model best matches the observed climate. The GFDL model suggests that the minimum increase in temperature is expected in winter, when most of the territory is expected to have temperatures 2.3–4.5 °C higher. The maximum (4.3 to 8.2 °C) is expected to be in spring. CCCM scenario estimates an extreme worming above 11 °C in spring months. GFDL-T outputs provide an intermediate scenario.     

Numerical simulation by a stretched-coordinate Ocean General Circulation Model: A preliminary results

Summary ?A three-dimensional Ocean General Circulation Model has been developed in stretched coordinate from scratch. The same model has been used to perform some numerical experiments to simulate the basic circulation pattern and the model variability to atmospheric forcing. For numerical simulations 72 × 25 grid points in the horizontal directions and nine (10, 30, 75, 250, 500, 1000, 1500, 2000 and 3000 m) vertical levels are considered. The lateral boundaries are set at 60° N and 60° S. The basic focus of the paper is on the demonstration of the performance of the model and its assessment by employing appropriate forcing from the outputs of an atmospheric general circulation model. Hence, the model was forced with the forcing (wind and thermodynamic) derived from the ECMWF runs from the AMIP archives. The preliminary results show the realistic simulation of basic pattern of different fields. The model simulations show that the model is able to reproduce some of the general features of the ocean, such as surface currents, surface temperature and salinity, mass transport and meridional heat transport. It is also to be noted that the model is capable to capture the El-Ni?o and La-Ni?a type events. Received April 3, 2002; revised June 6, 2002; accepted July 24, 2002 Published online: February 20, 2003     

Mineralogy, geochemistry and stratigraphy of the Maslovsky Pt–Cu–Ni sulfide deposit, Noril’sk Region, Russia

We report new data on the stratigraphy, mineralogy and geochemistry of the rocks and ores of the Maslovsky Pt–Cu–Ni sulfide deposit which is thought to be the southwestern extension of the Noril’sk 1 intrusion. Variations in the Ta/Nb ratio of the gabbro-dolerites hosting the sulfide mineralization and the compositions of their pyroxene and olivine indicate that these rocks were produced by two discrete magmatic pulses, which gave rise to the Northern and Southern Maslovsky intrusions that together host the Maslovsky deposit. The Northern intrusion is located inside the Tungusska sandstones and basalt of the Ivakinsky Formation. The Southern intrusion cuts through all of the lower units of the Siberian Trap tuff-lavas, including the Lower Nadezhdinsky Formation; demonstrating that the ore-bearing intrusions of the Noril’sk Complex post-date that unit. Rocks in both intrusions have low TiO₂ and elevated MgO contents (average mean TiO₂ <1 and MgO?=?12?wt.%) that are more primitive than the lavas of the Upper Formations of the Siberian Traps which suggests that the ore-bearing intrusions result from a separate magmatic event. Unusually high concentrations of both HREE (Dy+Yb+Er+Lu) and Y (up to 1.2 and 2.1?ppm, respectively) occur in olivines (Fo_79.5 and 0.25% NiO) from picritic and taxitic gabbro-dolerites with disseminated sulfide mineralization. Thus accumulation of HREE, Y and Ni in the melts is correlated with the mineral potential of the intrusions. The TiO₂ concentration in pyroxene has a strong negative correlation with the Mg# of both host mineral and Mg# of host rock. Sulfides from the Northern Maslovsky intrusion are predominantly chalcopyrite–pyrrhotite–pentlandite with subordinate and minor amounts of cubanite, bornite and millerite and a diverse assemblage of rare precious metal minerals including native metals (Au, Ag and Pd), Sn–Pd–Pt–Bi–Pb compounds and Fe–Pt alloys. Sulfides from the Southern Maslovsky intrusion have δ ³⁴S?=?5–6‰ up to 10.8‰ in two samples whereas the country rock basalt have δ ³⁴S?=?3–4‰, implying there was no in situ assimilation of surrounding rocks by magmas.     

Types of Pyrophyllite Deposits in Foldbelts

Abstract. Pyrophyllite deposits can be divided into five types on the basis of geology and genesis. The first two types are associated with hydrothermally altered rocks in felsic and intermediate volcanogenic suites. They are characterized by their metasomatites and their subsequent mineralogic transformations under varying volcanic conditions. The third type includes deposits and occurrences of metamorphic-metasomatic genesis, which is caused by transformations of terrigenous-sedimentary interbeds in felsic volcanics under greenschist facies conditions. The fourth type is associated with low and mid-temperature stages of hydrothermal vein formation at the limits of volcanogenic and metamorphic strata. The fifth type comprises pyrophyllite occurrences in weathering crusts on metamorphic strata and metasomatite.
The formation conditions and distribution of raw pyrophyllite deposits were influenced by the geodynamic situations and geochemical conditions, such as character of tectonic dislocations, volcanism and chemical composition of hydrothermal solutions.