Future impact of anthropogenic sulfate aerosol on North Atlantic climate

We examine the simulated future change of the North Atlantic winter climate influenced by anthropogenic greenhouses gases and sulfate aerosol. Two simulations performed with the climate model ECHAM4/OPYC3 are investigated: a simulation forced by greenhouse gases and a simulation forced by greenhouse gases and sulfate aerosol. Only the direct aerosol effect on the clear-sky radiative fluxes is considered. The sulfate aerosol has a significant impact on temperature, radiative quantities, precipitation and atmospheric dynamics. Generally, we find a similar, but weaker future climate response if sulfate aerosol is considered additionally. Due to the induced negative top-of-the-atmosphere radiative forcing, the future warming is attenuated. We find no significant future trends in North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) index in both simulations. However, the aerosol seems to have a balancing effect on the occurence of extreme NAO events. The simulated correlation patterns of the NAO index with temperature and precipitation, respectively, agree well with observations up to the present. The extent of the regions influenced by the NAO tends to be reduced under strong greenhouse gas forcing. If sulfate is included and the warming is smaller, this tendency is reversed. Also, the future decrease in baroclinicity is smaller due to the aerosols’ cooling effect and the poleward shift in track density is partly offset. Our findings imply that in simulations where aerosol cooling is neglected, the magnitude of the future warming over the North Atlantic region is overestimated, and correlation patterns differ from those based on the future simulation including aerosols.     

Mantle derived crystal-poor rhyolitic ignimbrites: Eruptive mechanism from geochemical and geochronological data of the Piedra Parada caldera,Southern Argentina

Trace elements, isotopic modeling and U-Th-Pb SHRIMP zircon age constraints are used to reconstruct the eruption history and magmatic processes of the Piedra Parada Caldera. In the early Eocene, the crystal-poor Barda Colorada ignimbrite(BCI), having 15% micro-porphyritic crystals with respect to magmatic components, erupted a volume estimated in more than 300 km~3. The Piedra Parada caldera is located in the Patagonian Andes foreland, at the southern end of the calderas field of the Pilcaniyeu Volcanic Belt(PVB). This belt is related to an extensional tectonic setting as a result of the collision of the Farallon-Aluk ridge with South America, which enabled the development of a transform ocean/continental plate margin followed by the detachment of the Aluk plate and the opening of a slab window. The BCI extra-caldera Plateau is a 100 m thick deposit, having a lower unit with high silica(Si O_2 76 wt.%),potassium poor rhyolitic composition(trondhjemitic like magma), and an upper unit with normal to high potassium rhyolitic composition(granitic like magma). A trace elements modeling of the BCI units shows that the BCI lower and upper units did not evolve from fractionation or immiscibility in the shallow magma reservoir. The BCI also have a primitive isotopic signature(initial87 Sr/86 Sr =0.7031-0.7049 and ε_(Nd)= +3.4 to +3.65). Thus, tectonic, compositional and isotopic constraints suggest the fast ascent of high silica magmas to a shallow reservoir, and point to an upper mantle origin for these rhyolitic magmas in a transitional(Orogenic-Anorogenic) tectono-magmatic setting. U-Th-Pb SHRIMP zircon crystallization ages of the Syn-caldera stage BCI units(56 -51.5 Ma) show a protracted life of 5 Ma for this caldera reservoir. The age of 52.9 ± 0.3 Ma is considered the best fit for the possible maximum age for the caldera collapse. The Late-caldera magmatism has trachyandesitic and rhyolitic compositions.The trace element modeling suggests that these rhyolites evolve from the trachyandesites and do not evolve from the BCI residual magma. The trachyandesites have U-Th-Pb SHRIMP zircon crystallization ages of 52 ± 1 Ma, suggesting that the caldera eruption was triggered by the arrival of the trachyandesitic magma.     

A test of independence for stratigraphic sequences with respect to embedded Markov chains

Identification of cyclic sequences gives valuable insight into depositional associations of stratigraphic facies. An embedded Markov chain is a reasonable general model for facies transitions. But a model with independent random occurrences of facies is not an appropriate null hypothesis to be tested to show the presence of cycles because of definitional restriction in transition observations to only those between different facies. This is a common stratigraphic situation and the problem has been raised recently by several authors. We present here a test statistic for null hypothesis derived from the concept of partial independence and inherent to the model of embedded Markov processes.     

Analyses of the Relationship Between Mucous Aggregates and Phytoplankton Communities in the Gulf of Trieste (Northern Adriatic Sea) by Multivariate Techniques

Abstract. Multivariate techniques (cluster analysis and Principal Component Analysis) applied on phytoplankton data collected in June, July, August, and September 1990, 1991, 1992, and 1993 in the Gulf of Trieste (Northern Adriatic Sea) highlighted a clear temporal pattern from 1990 to 1993. In the summer of 1991, phytoplankton communities showed a dramatic increase in the dinoflagellatddiatom ratio. In particular, during June and July 1991 only few specimens of diatoms ( Cylindrorhecu closreriurn. Probosciu alata, Nirzschio longissimu , and Nitzschiu spp.) were collected; this confirmed the diatom scarcity in the phytoplankton communities before and during the appearance of large mucous aggregates (mucilage) in July 1991 in the Gulf of Trieste. The differences observed between the structure of the phytoplankton communities inside the aggregates and in the ambient waters suggested two hypotheses: 1) the aggregates were not produced in the gulf, but were carried ints the gulf by the eastern bordering current; 2) the aggregates were produced by a few, scarce species with a high exudate production that are capable of quickly reaching a high reproductive rate within the aggregates.     

Possible precursory accelerated Benioff strain in the region of Sistan Suture Zone of Eastern Iran

We investigated whether accelerated seismic strain release precedes large earthquakes occurring in and around the Sistan Suture Zone, Eastern Iran. Online catalogs of teleseismic events occurring post-1960 within the region 27.0°–37.0°N, 55.0°–65.0°E, report five M _w > 7.0 earthquakes, namely, 1968 Dasht-e-Bayaz, 1978 Tabas, 1979 Khuli-Buniabad, 1981 Sirch and 1997 Zirkuh-e-Q’aenat events. We defined four earthquake test episodes, 1968–1978, 1978–1981, 1979–1981, and 1981–1997, with all catalogued intermediate events having magnitudes within 2.0 units that of the final large event. Using the 1968 event as the starting point, we investigated possible increased moderate earthquake activity patterns prior to the large events of 1978, 1981 and 1997 by examining if the cumulative Benioff strain released from such preceding events followed a power law time-to-failure. Our investigation seem to suggest that the 1978, 1981 and 1997 events (i) followed a period of accelerated moderate earthquake activity and (ii) the radius of their optimal critical region, R, scaled with their magnitude, M, according to the scaling law log R ∝ 0.36 M. Our suggestions conform to those proposed by similar investigations in varied seismotectonic regimes.     

Origin of organic sulphur compounds and sulphur-containing high molecular weight substances in sediments and immature crude oils

The distribution patterns of Organic Sulphur Compounds (OSC), occurring in certain sediments and immature crude oils, were compared with those of the corresponding hydrocarbons. Because of the complexity of the OSC mixtures, they were desulphurized to hydrocarbons (n-alkanes, isoprenoid alkanes, steranes, triterpanes and branched alkanes). The hydrocarbons produced by desulphurization of the OSC exhibited distribution patterns different from those of the hydrocarbons originally present. Therefore reaction of elemental sulphur with these hydrocarbons at elevated temperatures must be considered as an unlikely origin for these OSC. Sulphur incorporation reactions on an intramolecular basis with suitable functionalized precursors at the early stages of diagenesis are probably the major origin for these OSc. Desulphurization of high molecular weight fractions also produced hydrocarbons, dominated by n-alkanes up to C₄₀. Therefore it is assumed that these substances contain n-alkanes, 2,5-dialkyl-thiophenes and -thiolanes linked to each other by sulphur briddges. These findings stronly suggest that sulphur-containing high molecular weight substances are formed by the same sulphur incorporation reactions as OSC, but in an intermolecular fashion.     

Diatoms and sockeye salmon (Oncorhynchus nerka) population dynamics: Reconstructions of salmon-derived nutrients over the past 2,200 years in two lakes from Kodiak Island, Alaska

The return of hundreds to millions of adult sockeye salmon (Oncorhynchus nerka), which have returned from the ocean to their natal nursery lake environment to spawn, can result in significant nutrient loading. By analyzing sedimentary diatom assemblages from nursery lakes, we demonstrated that a salmon-derived nutrient signal could be traced over time and be used to infer past sockeye salmon population dynamics. We conducted a 2,200 year paleolimnological study of two Alaskan sockeye salmon nursery lakes, Karluk and Frazer lakes. The two lakes are very similar, except that sockeye salmon were only introduced into Frazer Lake in 1951 (first spawners returned in 1956). In both lakes we found a strong correspondence between diatom assemblages and the number of adult salmon spawners recorded in the historical data (40 and 70 years for Frazer and Karluk lakes, respectively). Given this robust relationship, we then used our analyses of diatoms from Karluk Lake over the past 2,200 years to gain insight into salmon-derived nutrient loading changes (which are directly related to the number of sockeye salmon spawners). The diatom record from Karluk Lake recorded dramatic species changes on both decadal and century timescales, and was strongly correlated with an independent indicator of sockeye salmon abundances, ¹⁵N. Together, these data suggest pronounced variability in sockeye salmon abundances at Karluk Lake over the past 2,200 years. The direct impacts of regional environmental variability were not likely responsible for the patterns apparent in Karluk Lake, as the diatom and ¹⁵N profiles from Frazer Lake were relatively stable prior to the introduction of sockeye salmon. Application of total phosphorus transfer functions to the Karluk and Frazer lakes' diatom records revealed that sockeye salmon carcasses substantially increased the trophic status in these lakes, which has important implications for the health of juvenile salmon that rear in nursery lakes. Overall, this paper illustrates the potential use of diatoms in reconstructing past sockeye salmon population dynamics, which in turn can lead to a greater understanding of the mechanisms influencing abundances of sockeye salmon.