Remote estimation of surficial seafloor properties through the application Angular Range Analysis to multibeam sonar data

The variation of the backscatter strength with the angle of incidence is an intrinsic property of the seafloor, which can be used in methods for acoustic seafloor characterization. Although multibeam sonars acquire backscatter over a wide range of incidence angles, the angular information is normally neglected during standard backscatter processing and mosaicking. An approach called Angular Range Analysis has been developed to preserve the backscatter angular information, and use it for remote estimation of seafloor properties. Angular Range Analysis starts with the beam-by-beam time-series of acoustic backscatter provided by the multibeam sonar and then corrects the backscatter for seafloor slope, beam pattern, time varying and angle varying gains, and area of insonification. Subsequently a series of parameters are calculated from the stacking of consecutive time series over a spatial scale that approximates half of the swath width. Based on these calculated parameters and the inversion of an acoustic backscatter model, we estimate the acoustic impedance and the roughness of the insonified area on the seafloor. In the process of this inversion, the behavior of the model parameters is constrained by established inter-property relationships. The approach has been tested using a 300 kHz Simrad EM3000 multibeam sonar in Little Bay, NH. Impedance estimates are compared to in situ measurements of sound speed. The comparison shows a very good correlation, indicating the potential of this approach for robust seafloor characterization.     

Hawking radiation of Kerr-de Sitter black holes using Hamilton-Jacobi method

Hawking radiation of Kerr-de Sitter black hole is investigated using Hamilton-Jacobi method. When the well-behaved Painleve coordinate system and Eddington coordinate are used, we get the correct result of Bekenstein-Hawking entropy before and after radiation but a direct computation will lead to a wrong result via Hamilton-Jacobi method. Our results show that the tunneling probability is related to the change of Bekenstein-Hawking entropy and the derived emission spectrum deviates from the pure thermal but it is consistent with underlying unitary theory.     

Source parameters for the M<Subscript>w</Subscript> = 6.6, 03 February 2002, Çay Earthquake (Turkey) and aftershocks from GPS,Southwestern Turkey

The 03 February 2002 Çay Earthquake (M_w ～6.7) occurred on the fault segment between Eber and Ak?ehir Lakes followed by a large aftershock (M_w ～5.6) near the western end of the fault and two sequential aftershocks. We computed the coseismic surface displacements from static GPS measurements to determine the fault geometry parameters and uniform slip components. The coseismic displacements were obtained through combining the regional pre-earthquake and post-earthquake GPS data. Fault geometry and slips were acquired through the inversion of GPS data modeling the events as elastic dislocations in a half-space and assuming all four events took place on the same fault plane. Results suggest that one-segment fault of ～33 km length and dipping ～43° northward suffices to model the dislocation, assuming uniform slip distribution with 0.51 m dip slip, 0.26 m left-lateral slip extending to a depth down to ～11.5 km which is consistent with seismological evidence. The results also verify the normal faulting in the eastern flank of Isparta Angle which has long been assumed as a thrusting structure. While the available data cannot identify the four individual events on the same day, an attempted distributed slip model differentiates dip slip and left-lateral slips near the hypocenter with maximum values of ～1 and 0.6 m, respectively.     

Shift-share Analysis on International Tourism Competitiveness - A Case of Jiangsu Province

Shift-share analysis has been confirmed a useful approach in the study of regional economics and many kinds of extended shift-share models have been advanced and put into practice in economic studies, but few have hitherto been introduced and applied to the tourism research in China. Moreover understanding the spatially competitive relationship is of paramount importance for marketers, developers, and planners involved in tourism strategy development. Based on international tourism receipts from 1995 to 2004, this study aims at probing into the spatial competitiveness of interna- tional tourism in Jiangsu Province in comparison with its neighbors by applying a spatially extended shift-share model and a modified dynamic shift-share model. The empirical results illustrate that exceptional years may exist in the ap- plication of dynamic shift-share models. To solve this issue, modifications to dynamic shift-share model are put forward. The analytical results are not only presented but also explained by the comparison of background conditions of tourism development between Jiangsu and its key competitors. The conclusions can be drawn that the growth of international tourism receipts in Jiangsu mainly attributes to the national component and the competitive component and Zhejiang is the most important rival to Jiangsu during the period of 1995-2004. In order to upgrade the tourism competitiveness, it is indispensable for Jiangsu to take proper positioning, promoting and marketing strategies and to cooperate and integrate with its main rivals.     

The Natural Hazards Theme of the International Year of Planet Earth

The United Nations has declared 2008 to be the International Year of Planet Earth. It is being organised under the auspices of the International Union of Geological Sciences and UNESCO. Planning for the International Year of Planet Earth has consisted of establishing 10 major science themes including Hazards. The Hazards Theme is centred around the following key questions: (1) How have humans altered the geosphere, the biosphere and the landscape, thereby creating long-term changes detrimental to life and the environment and triggering certain hazards, while increasing societal vulnerability to geophysical (geological and hydrometeorological) hazards? (2) What technologies and methodologies are required to assess the vulnerability of people and places to hazards and how might these be used at a variety of spatial scales? (3) How do geophysical hazards compare relative to each other regarding current capabilities for monitoring, prediction and mitigation and what can be done in the short-term to improve these capabilities (4) What barriers exist to the utilisation of risk and vulnerability information by governments (and other entities) for risk and vulnerability reduction policies and planning (including mitigation) from each of the geophysical hazards? Following the 26 December 2004 Indian Ocean Tsunami and the UN World Conference on Disaster Reduction held in Kobe, Japan in January 2005, the International Council for Science (ICSU) decided to establish a major research programme and initiative on Natural and Human Induced Environmental Hazards and Disasters that will co-operate with the Hazards theme of the International Year and continue through to 2011.     

Interannual variability of summer monsoon rainfall over Myanmar

Observed summer (May–October) rainfall in Myanmar for the period 1981–2010 was used to investigate the interannual variability of summer monsoon rainfall over Myanmar. Empirical orthogonal function, the sequential Mann-Kendall test, power spectrum analysis, and singular value decomposition (SVD) were deployed in the study. Results from spectral analysis showed that the variability of rainfall over Myanmar exhibits a 2- to 6-year cycle. An abrupt change in rainfall over the country was noted in 1992. There was a notable increasing rainfall trend from 1989. After the sudden change, the mean rainfall increased by 36.1 mm, compared with the mean rainfall before the sudden change, and was associated with a rise in temperature of about 0.2 °C. An increase in heavy rainfall days was observed from the early 1990s to 2010. IOD and ENSO play an important role in the interannual variability of the summer rainfall over Myanmar. The covariability between rainfall over Myanmar and Indian Ocean SST generally suggests that a positive IOD mode is associated with suppressed rainfall in the central and northern parts of Myanmar. During a negative IOD mode, nearly the whole Myanmar experiences enhanced rainfall, which is associated with devastating socioeconomic impacts. The covariability between the rainfall over Myanmar and the sea surface temperature in the Pacific Ocean in the first and second SVD modes was dominated by warming in the east and central Pacific—an El Niño-like pattern—resulting in dry conditions in central Myanmar.     

Land subsidence caused by groundwater exploitation in Suzhou City,China

Suzhou City, located at the lower reaches of the Yangtze River in southeastern Jiangsu Province, is one of the few cities in China which suffer from severe ground settlement. A research project was carried out to investigate this problem. Geological and hydrogeological studies show that there is a multi-layered aquifer system with three distinct, soft mud layers of marine and lagoonal origins. An examination of historical records of groundwater extraction, water levels, and ground settlement shows that the ground subsidence is associated with the continuously increasing groundwater extraction in the deep, confined aquifer. It is believed that the consolidation of the soft mud layers, especially the third layer which is thick and close to the main pumped aquifer, contributes to the ground settlement. A three-dimensional finite difference numerical model representing the multi-layered aquifer system was developed to study the ground settlement in response to groundwater extraction. By calibrating the model with both the measured groundwater level and ground settlement, the aquifer parameters were estimated. The model outputs fit reasonably well with the observed results, which indicates that the numerical model can reproduce the dynamic processes of both groundwater flow and soil consolidation. The hydraulic conductivity of the third mud layer near the center of the ground settlement has been reduced by over 30% in the last 14 years. The gradual deterioration in the hydraulic conductivity of the mud may have significant adverse effect on the sustainable groundwater resource of the deep confined aquifer, since the recharge from the shallow aquifers through the mud layer is the only source of water to the deep aquifer. An analysis of the spatial distributions of groundwater drawdown and ground settlement shows that the area with maximum drawdown is not necessarily the area with maximum ground settlement due to the occurrence of the soft mud layer. A simple reallocation in pumping rates on the basis of the spatial distribution of the thick mud layer could significantly reduce the ground settlement. Electronic Publication     

First-order regional seismotectonic model for South Africa

A first-order seismotectonic model was created for South Africa. This was done using four logical steps: geoscientific data collection, characterisation, assimilation and zonation. Through the definition of subunits of concentrations of earthquake foci and large neotectonic and structural domains, seismotectonic structures, systems and domains were created. Relatively larger controls of seismicity exist between the Great Escarpment and the coast. In the south, this region is characterised by large aeromagnetic anomalies and large EW trending faults. In the west, it is characterised by the NW–SE trending Wegener stress anomaly, radial-trending dykes and earthquake clusters. In the east, it is characterised by a large neotectonic domain where several large historical earthquakes occurred. In the centre of South Africa, several clusters of earthquake activity are found, often related to mining activity. Further north, seismicity is related to both mining activity and neotectonic deformation. This work contributes to the development of a seismotectonic model for South Africa by (1) bringing together, digitally, several data sets in a common GIS platform (geology, geophysics, stress, seismicity, neotectonics, topography, crustal and mantle structure and anisotropy), (2) understanding the significance of data sets for seismotectonic zonation and limitations thereof and (3) obtaining a reasonable regional model for use in seismic hazard assessments.     

Optimal seismic retrofit model for steel moment resisting frames with brittle connections

Based on performance-based seismic engineering, this paper proposes an optimal seismic retrofit model for steel moment resisting frames (SMRFs) to generate a retrofit scheme at minimal cost. To satisfy the acceptance criteria for the Basic Safety Objective (BSO) specified in FEMA 356, the minimum number of upgraded connections and their locations in an SMRF with brittle connections are determined by evolutionary computation. The performance of the proposed optimal retrofitting model is evaluated on the basis of the energy dissipation capacities, peak roof drift ratios, and maximum interstory drift ratios of structures before and after retrofitting. In addition, a retrofit efficiency index, which is defined as the ratio of the increment in seismic performance to the required retrofitting cost, is proposed to examine the efficiencies of the retrofit schemes derived from the model. The optimal seismic retrofit model is applied to the SAC benchmark examples for threestory and nine-story SMRFs with brittle connections. Using the retrofit efficiency index proposed in this study, the optimal retrofit schemes obtained from the model are found to be efficient for both examples in terms of energy dissipation capacity, roof drift ratio, and maximum inter-story drift ratio.     

CATASTROPHIC ECO-ENVIRONMENTAL CHANGE IN THE SONGNEN PLAIN, NORTHEASTERN CHINA SINCE 1900S

Although the Songnen Plain in the northeastern China was developed relatively late in the temperate zone of the world, its eco-environment has changed greatly. This paper analyzes the changes of land cover and the rates and trends ofdesertification during the past 100 years in the Songnen Plain. According to the macroscopic analysis, we find that the eco-environment in the plain has reached to the threshold of catastrophic change since the 1950s. The Thorn Needle Catastrophic Model was used to determine and validate this conclusion. Human activities, including large-scale construction projects, such as huge dams and dikes, and excessive grazing were the primary factors contributing to regional eco-environmental catastrophe. And irrational reclamation of the wilderness also affected the eco-environmental change. The results reveal the complex human-land interactions.