Comparative study of geophysical and soil–gas investigations at the Hartoušov (Czech Republic) natural CO2 degassing site

Our study at this natural analog site contributes to the evaluation of methods within a hierarchical monitoring concept suited for the control of CO₂ degassing. It supports the development of an effective monitoring concept for geological CO₂ storage sites—carbon capture and storage as one of the pillars of the European climate change efforts. This study presents results of comprehensive investigations along a 500-m long profile within the Hartou?ov (Czech Republic) natural CO₂ degassing site and gives structural information about the subsurface and interaction processes in relation to parameters measured. Measurements of CO₂ concentrations and investigation of the subsurface using electrical resistivity tomography and self-potential methods provide information about subsurface properties. For their successful application it is necessary to take seasonal variations (e.g., soil moisture, temperature, meteorological conditions) into consideration due to their influence on these parameters. Locations of high CO₂ concentration in shallow depths are related to positive self-potential anomalies, low soil moistures and high resistivity distributions, as well as high δ13C values and increased radon concentrations. CO₂ ascends from deep geological sources via preferential pathways and accumulates in coarser sediments. Repetition of measurements (which includes the effects of seasonal variations) revealed similar trends and allows us to identify a clear, prominent zone of anomalous values. Coarser unconsolidated sedimentary layers are beneficial for the accumulation of CO₂ gas. The distribution of such shallow geological structures needs to be considered as a significant environmental risk potential whenever sudden degassing of large gas volumes occurs.     

Assessing the extent of induced leakage to an urban aquifer using environmental tracers: an example from Bishkek, capital of Kyrgyzstan, Central Asia

A groundwater residence time study of the deep fluvioglacial aquifer supplying Bishkek, capital of Kyrgyzstan, has found evidence of deep infiltration of recent recharge both in the main periurban wellfield and below the city. Commonly-employed hydrochemical markers detected urban influence in the city-centre to depths of 65–100 m, but gave no indication of the important role of induced river/canal bed leakage, either upgradient in the periurban wellfield or within the city. This was revealed by O and H stable isotope measurements, which showed that local rainfall/snowfall play little part in the aquifer water balance. More remarkably, the universal detection of CFCs and SF₆, including in boreholes with 140–220 m deep upper screens, demonstrated that induced leakage of water just a few decades old had penetrated much deeper into the aquifer system than other hydrochemical markers indicated. A two-dimensional flow model set up to test whether such deep pumping-induced leakage could occur below the periurban wellfield confirmed its feasibility. The results imply vertical infiltration rates of 5–10 m/year and demonstrate that in this not-uncommon intergranular aquifer setting, deep boreholes with deep screen settings do not necessarily abstract old water. Hence, there are major implications for urban groundwater management and protection in such settings.

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Resumen Un estudio sobre el tiempo de residencia del agua subterránea, en un acuífero fluvioglacial profundo que abastece a Bishkek, capital de Kyrgyzstan, ha encontrado evidencias de infiltración profunda a partir de recarga reciente, tanto en el campo de pozos de las afueras de la ciudad, como también por debajo de la ciudad. Los indicadores hidroquímicos comúnmente usados, detectaron influencia urbana en el centro de la ciudad hasta profundidades de 65–100 m, pero no dieron indicación del papel importante del goteo inducido en el lecho del canal/río, tanto aguas arriba en el campo de pozos de los suburbios, como también dentro de la ciudad. Esto se reveló mediante mediciones de isótopos estables de O y H, las cuales mostraron que las precipitaciones/nevadas de tipo local, tienen una pequeña contribución en el balance de agua del acuífero. De manera más notoria, la detección universal de CFCs y SF6, incluidos en las rejillas superiores de pozos profundos con 140–220 m de profundidad, demostraron que un goteo inducido de agua, de solo unas pocas décadas de antigüedad, ha penetrado mucho más profundo dentro del sistema acuífero, de lo que los otros marcadores hidroquímicos indicaban. Un modelo bidimensional de flujo, realizado para probar si el goteo inducido—bombeo profundo podía suceder debajo del campo de pozos suburbano, confirmó su factibilidad. Los resultados implican tasas de infiltración vertical de 5 a 10 m/año, y demuestran que los pozos profundos con tramos de rejilla también profundos, no necesariamente extraen aguas antiguas, en estos ambientes acuíferos con porosidad intergranular. Por lo tanto, hay implicaciones importantes para la gestión y protección en zonas urbanas, y para esos ambientes de las aguas subterráneas.

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Résumé Lanalyse du temps de résidence des eaux souterraines dans un aquifère fluvial profond, dorigine glaciaire, qui alimente en eau Bishek, la capitale de Kyrgyzstan a mis en évidence une recharge récente tant dans le captage en eau que sous la ville même. Les traceurs chimiques ont indiqué linfluence urbaine dans le centre de la ville, à une profondeur de 65–100 m, mais ils nont pas mis en évidence le rôle important de lalimentation induite par la couche du fleuve, tant en amont, dans le captage que en aval, dans la ville. Ces effets ont été relevés par des isotopes stables, comme O et h qui ont montré linfluence récente des précipitations dans le bilan hydrique de laquifère. De plus, la détection universelle de CFC et de SF6, y compris dans les forages ayant une profondeur de 140–220 m, montre que lalimentation en eau induite de plusieurs décennies a pénétré à des profondeurs plus grandes que celles indiqués par des traceurs chimiques. Les possibilités dune drainance verticale induite par les pompages dans le puits profonds du captage ont été vérifiées par un modèle bidimensionnel découlement. Les résultats de la modélisation ont conduit à une infiltration verticale de 5–10 m/an et ont démontré aussi que leau extraite par des puits profonds dans un aquifère granulaire nest pas nécessairement dage ancienne. Il sagit donc des implications majeures concernant la gestion et la protection des captages urbaines en eaux souterraines

     

Validation of present-day regional climate simulations over Europe: LAM simulations with observed boundary conditions

 Nested limited-area modelling is one method of down-scaling general circulation model (GCM) climate change simulations. To give credibility to this method the nested limited-area model (LAM) must be shown to simulate local present-day climate conditions fairly accurately. Here seven different European limited-area models driven by observed boundary conditions (operational weather forecast analyses) are validated against observations, and inter-compared for summer and winter months. Relatively large biases are found. In summer large positive surface air temperature biases are found over southeast Europe. The main reason is deficiencies in the surface hydrological schemes causing an unrealistic drying of the soil. In at least one of the models, most likely several of them, an additional factor is an overestimation of incoming solar radiation. Apart from excessive precipitation in mountainous areas in some models they generally show a negative bias due to the drying and decreased advection from the Atlantic. In winter most models have a positive precipitation bias which seems to be caused by an enhancement of advection from the Atlantic and enhanced cyclone activity. Surface air temperature biases are negative probably due to an underestimation of the incoming longwave radiation. Received: 11 December 1996 / Accepted: 17 March 1997     

Idealised Numerical Experiments of Alpine Flow Regimes and Southside Precipitation Events

Summary  Heavy precipitation events to the south of the Alps are usually associated with a southerly pre-frontal low-level jet advecting moisture toward the southern slopes of the Alps. Here we use idealised numerical simulations to assess the nature of the associated flow regimes and the mechanisms leading to vertical lifting and precipitation. The idealisations comprise: a simplified arc-shaped barrier-like orographic obstacle of Alpine scale; neglection of the tropopause; a stationary two-dimensional upstream flow configuration that includes a frontal structure and a low-level jet; hydrostatic dynamics with free-slip lower boundary conditions; and a simplified set of parameterizations to address dry, moist absolutely stable, and moist conditionally unstable upstream flow configurations. Within the dry dynamics, typical settings lead to Alpine-scale flow splitting with pronounced left/right asymmetries with respect to the incident southerly flow. Strong vertical lifting occurs over the western portion of the upstream slopes, within the stream of air that tries to circum go the elongated obstacle on the western flank. Thus, despite belonging to the “flow-around” regime, these flow configurations can exhibit vertical lifting over the whole height of the obstacle. The responsible asymmetry is primarily induced by the Coriolis effect in the presence of an elongated mountain, but it can further be intensified by the impinging low-level jet and the arc-shape of the Alpine topography. With a conditionally unstable moist upstream profile, the flow is able to surmount the obstacle without pronounced horizontal deflections. Maximum precipitation rates of are obtained. When moist convection is suppressed by using a moist absolutely stable upstream profile, the flow is again substantially deflected and shows the typical characteristics of the dry flow regime discussed above, with somewhat reduced precipitation rates as compared to the convective case. Overall there is evidence that the asymmetry introduced by the Coriolis effect, a pronounced low-level jet, and a moist upstream profile, all facilitate vertical lifting and thereby provide a suitable environment for heavy condensation and precipitation. Received March 22, 1999/Revised August 18, 1999     

Robust estimates of climate-induced hydrological change in a temperate mountainous region

A sustainable water resources management depends on sound information about the impacts of climate change. This information is, however, not easily derived because natural runoff variability interferes with the climate change signal. This study presents a procedure that leads to robust estimates of magnitude and Time Of Emergence (TOE) of climate-induced hydrological change that also account for the natural variability contained in the time series. Firstly, natural variability of 189 mesoscale catchments in Switzerland is sampled for 10 ENSEMBLES scenarios for the control (1984–2005) and two scenario periods (near future: 2025–2046, far future: 2074–2095) applying a bootstrap procedure. Then, the sampling distributions of mean monthly runoff are tested for significant differences with the Wilcoxon-Mann–Whitney test and for effect size with Cliff’s delta d. Finally, the TOE of a climate change induced hydrological change is determined when at least eight out of the ten hydrological projections significantly differ from natural variability. The results show that the TOE occurs in the near future period except for high-elevated catchments in late summer. The significant hydrological projections in the near future correspond, however, to only minor runoff changes. In the far future, hydrological change is statistically significant and runoff changes are substantial. Temperature change is the most important factor determining hydrological change in this mountainous region. Therefore, hydrological change depends strongly on a catchment’s mean elevation. Considering that the hydrological changes are predicted to be robust in the near future highlights the importance of accounting for these changes in water resources planning.     

Process, Forcing, and Signal Analysis of Global Mean TemperatureVariations by Means of a Three-Box Energy Balance Model

An analytic solution of an energy balance model (EBM) is presented which can beused as a recursive filter for time series analysis. It is shown that the EBM can reproduce the solution of a coupled atmosphere-ocean general circulation model (AOGCM) experiment. Contrary to the AOGCM, the EBM easily allows for variations in climate sensitivity to satisfy the full range of uncertainty concerned with this parameter. The recursive filter is applied to two natural and two anthropogenic forcing mechanisms which are expressed in terms of heating rate anomaly time series: volcanism, solar activity, greenhouse gases (GHG), and anthropogenic tropospheric aerosols. Thus, we obtain modelled global mean temperature variations as a response to the different forcings and with respect to the uncertainty in the forcing approximations and climate sensitivity. In addition, it is shown that the observed (ENSO-corrected) global mean temperature time series within the period from 1866 to 1997 can be explained by the external forcings which have been considered and an additional white noise forcing. In this way we are able to separate different signals and compare them. As a result, global anthropogenic climate change due to GHG forcing can be detected at a high level of significance without considering spatial patterns of climate change but including natural forcing, which is usually not done. Furthermore, it is shown that solar forcing alone does not lead to significantclimate change, whereas solar and volcanic forcing together lead to a significant natural climate change signal. Anthropogenic climate change due to GHG forcing may partly be masked by anthropogenic aerosol cooling.     

Mollusc and brachiopod skeletal hard parts: Intricate archives of their marine environment

The biogenic carbonate hard parts of fossil bivalves, cephalopods and brachiopods are among the most widely exploited marine archives of Phanerozoic environmental and climate dynamics research. The advent of novel analytical tools has led many workers to explore non‐traditional geochemical and petrographic proxies, and work performed in neighbouring disciplines sheds light on the complex biomineralization strategies applied by these organisms. These considerations form a strong motivation to review the potential and problems related to the compilation and interpretation of proxy data from bivalve, cephalopod and brachiopod hard parts from the viewpoint of the sedimentologist and palaeoceanographer. Specific focus is on the complex biomineralization pathways of a given dissolved ion or food particle from its aquatic environment via the digestion and biomineralization apparatus in molluscs and brachiopods and its incorporation into a biomineral. Given that molluscs and brachiopods do not secrete their hard parts from seawater but rather from their mantle and periostracum, this paper evaluates differences and similarities of seawater versus that of body fluids. Cephalopods, bivalves and brachiopods exert a strong biological control on biomineralization that, to some degree, may buffer their shell geochemistry against secular changes in seawater chemistry. Disordered (amorphous) calcium carbonate precursor phases, later transformed to crystalline biominerals, may be significant in carbonate archive research due to expected geochemical offset relative to the direct precipitation of stable phases. A reasonable level of understanding of the related mechanisms is thus crucial for those who use these skeletal hard parts as archives of the palaeo‐environment. The impact of what is commonly referred to as ‘biological factors’ on the geochemistry of mollusc and brachiopod hard parts is explored for conventional isotope systems such as carbon, oxygen, strontium and traditionally used element to calcium ratios. In particular, the often used δ¹³C_carb or the Mg/Ca and Sr/Ca elemental proxies are fraught with problems. An interesting new research field represents the analysis, calibration and application of non‐traditional proxies to mollusc and brachiopod hard parts. Examples include the carbonate clumped isotope (Δ₄₇) approach and the analysis of the isotopes of Ca, Mg, N, Li, S or element to Ca ratios such as Li/Ca or B/Ca and rare earth elements. Based on considerations discussed here, a series of “do's and don'ts” in mollusc and brachiopod archive research are proposed and suggestions for future work are presented. In essence, the suggestions proposed here include experimental work (also field experiments) making use of recent archive organisms or, where possible, a reasonable recent analogue in the case of extinct groups. Moreover, the detailed understanding of the architecture of mollusc and brachiopod hard parts and their ultra‐structures must guide sampling strategies for geochemical analyses. Where feasible, a detailed understanding of the diagenetic pathways and the application of multi‐proxy and multi‐archive approaches should form the foundation of fossil carbonate archive research. The uncritical compilation of large data sets from various carbonate‐shelled organisms collected at different locations is not encouraged.