Towards a dedicated impact portal to bridge the gap between the impact and climate communities : Lessons from use cases

Future climate evolution is of primary importance for the societal, economical, political orientations and decision-making. It explains the increasing use of climate projections as input for quantitative impact studies, assessing vulnerability and defining adaptation strategies in different sectors. Here we analyse 17 national and representative use cases so as to identify the diversity of the demand for climate information depending on user profiles as well as the best practices, methods and tools that are needed to answer the different requests. A particular emphasis is put on the workflow that allows to translate climate data into suitable impact data, the way to deal with the different sources of uncertainty and to provide a suited product to users. We identified three complementary tools to close the gap between climate scientists and user needs: an efficient interface between users and providers; an optimized methodology to handle user requests and a portal to facilitate access to data and elaborated products. We detail in the paper how these three tools can limit the intervention of experts, educate users, and lead to the production of useful information. This work provides the basis on which the ENES (European Network for Earth System Modelling) Portal Interface for the Climate Impact Communities is built.     

Comparative study of statistical methods to identify a predictor for discharge at Orsova in the Lower Danube Basin

ABSTRACT

The aims of this study are to investigate the influence of large-scale atmospheric circulation quantified by indices such as the North Atlantic Oscillation index (NAOI), the Greenland-Balkan Oscillation index (GBOI) and blocking-type indices on the Lower Danube discharge. We separately analysed each season for the 1948–2000 period. In addition to the statistical linear procedure, we applied methods to quantify nonlinear connections between variables, as mutual information between predictors and predictand, using Shannon’s information entropy theory. The nonlinear correlation information between climate indices and discharge is higher than that obtained from the linear measure, providing more insight into real connections. Also, the non-stationarity of the link between variables is highlighted by spectral coherence based on wavelet analysis. For the physical interpretation, we analyse composite maps over the Atlantic-European region. The most significant influence on the discharge of the Lower Danube Basin is given by the GBOI and blocking-type atmospheric circulation over Europe.     

Assessing the potential for CO2 adsorption in a subbituminous coal,Huntly Coalfield,New Zealand,using small angle scattering techniques

Small angle scattering techniques (SAXS and SANS) have been used to investigate the microstructural properties of the subbituminous coals (R_max 0.42–0.45%) from the Huntly Coalfield, New Zealand. Samples were collected from the two thick (> 5 m) coal seams in the coalfield and have been analysed for methane and carbon dioxide sorption capacity, petrography, pore size distribution, specific surface area and porosity.Specific surface area (SSA) available for carbon dioxide adsorption, extrapolated to a probe size of 4 Å, ranged from 1.25 × 10⁶ cm^? 1 to 4.26 × 10⁶ cm^? 1 with total porosity varying from 16% to 25%. Porosity was found to be predominantly composed of microporosity, which contributed the majority of the available SSA. Although considerable variation was seen between samples, the results fit well with published rank trends.Gas holding capacity at the reservoir pressure (approximately 4 MPa) ranged from 2.63 to 4.18 m³/t for methane on a dry, ash-free basis (daf) and from 22.00 to 23.72 m³/t daf for carbon dioxide. The resulting ratio of CO₂:CH₄ ranged from 5.7 to 8.6, with an average of 6.7:1.Holding capacities for both methane and carbon dioxide on a dry ash free basis (daf) were found to be correlated with sample microporosity. However, holding capacities for the two gases on an as analysed (aa) basis (that is including mineral matter and moisture), showed no such correlation. Carbon dioxide (aa) does show a negative correlation with both specific surface area and microporosity. As the coals have low inorganic matter content, the reversal is thought to be related to moisture which is likely concentrated in the pore size range 12.5–125 Å. Methane holding capacity, both daf and aa, correlates with macroporosity, thus suggesting that the holding capacity of micropores is diminished by the presence of moisture in the pores.     

Uncertainty of gas saturation estimates in a subbituminous coal seam

To assess the commercial viability of a coalbed methane prospect two of the key geological parameters measured are gas content (desorbed gas) and gas holding capacity (adsorption capacity). These two measures, together with reservoir pressure, give an estimate of the gas saturation of the reservoir. Typically gas saturation has been assessed by collecting one adsorption isotherm sample and assuming it is representative of the whole seam reservoir conditions. This study addresses that assumption.To understand the level of variation, and thus the inherent uncertainty in saturation, one core (Jasper-1) from the Huntly coalfield in New Zealand was analysed in detail. Ten samples (representing the whole coal seam) were placed into gas desorption canisters and desorbed for ten days and then analysed for adsorption capacity. Desorption analyses for total measured gas content (average in-situ basis) ranged from 2.32 to 2.89 m³/t (standard deviation (sd) = 0.18) and gas adsorptive capacity at 4 MPa (average in-situ basis) from 2.11 to 3.51 m³/t (sd = 0.38) resulting in saturations ranging from 66% to 120% (sd = 15).Determination of how many samples are required to make a realistic assessment of average reservoir properties requires a consideration of: (i) the level of accuracy desired, (ii) the limit of accuracy possible, which is governed by the magnitude of experimental error, and (iii) the innate variability of the seam. It was found that a minimum of five samples each for adsorption and desorption were required in order to significantly decrease the uncertainty in gas saturation estimates for a subbituminous coal.     

Impact of spatial correlation of ground motions on seismic damage for residential buildings in Bucharest,Romania

Natural Hazards - This paper focuses on the investigation of seismic risk for residential buildings situated in Bucharest, the capital city of Romania. With a population of nearly 2 million...