Effect of rainfall uncertainty on the performance of physically based rainfall–runoff models

This paper analyses the effect of rain data uncertainty on the performance of two hydrological models with different spatial structures: a semidistributed and a fully distributed model. The study is performed on a small catchment of 19.6 km² located in the north‐west of Spain, where the arrival of low pressure fronts from the Atlantic Ocean causes highly variable rainfall events. The rainfall fields in this catchment during a series of storm events are estimated using rainfall point measurements. The uncertainty of the estimated fields is quantified using a conditional simulation technique. Discharge and rain data, including the uncertainty of the estimated rainfall fields, are then used to calibrate and validate both hydrological models following the generalized likelihood uncertainty estimation (GLUE) methodology. In the storm events analysed, the two models show similar performance. In all cases, results show that the calibrated distribution of the input parameters narrows when the rain uncertainty is included in the analysis. Otherwise, when rain uncertainty is not considered, the calibration of the input parameters must account for all uncertainty in the rainfall–runoff transformation process. Also, in both models, the uncertainty of the predicted discharges increase in similar magnitude when the uncertainty of rainfall input increase.     

Results from a new model of river basin evolution

This paper briefly describes a model of the erosional development of catchments and their channel networks. The model differentiates between the dominant transport processes in hillslope and channels. The development of channels and hillslopes occurs in an integrated manner as a function of physically observable mechanisms. The growth of a river basin is qualitatively described. The model concepts are used to study the basin during periods of growth (transient periods), as well as during dynamic equilibrium. This leads to hypotheses about the relationship between slopes, relief, tectonic uplift, erodability, runoff, and catchment area. It is shown that the model leads to very reasonable and desirable behaviour of hillslopes during retreat and degradation.     

Depth of closure: New calculation method based on sediment data

Obtaining depth of closure (DoC) in an accurate manner is a fundamental issue for coastal engineering, since good results for coastal structures and beach nourishment depend mainly on DoC. Currently, there are two methods for obtaining the DoC, mathematical formulations and profile surveys. However, these methods can incur important errors if one does not take into account the characteristics and morphology of the area, or if one does not have a sufficiently long time series. In this work the DoC is obtained from the break in the trend of the sediment with the depth, that is, in general with the increase of the depth a decrease in the size of the sediment takes place. However, at one point this tendency changes and the size increases, and then decreases again. When comparing the point where the minimum sediment size occurs before the increase, it is observed that the error incurred is small compared to other methods. If the Standard Deviation of Depth Change (SDDC) method is considered as the most accurate method, the error incurred by the proposed method is less than 7%. In addition, it can be seen that the dispersion of the sediment method always occurs outside the zone of bar movement. Whereas in the methods of profiles survey (using 2 cm precision profiles), sometimes the DoC is obtained within the active zone of bar movement. In addition, where the relative minimum of the median sediment size is found, and the sizes of 0.063 and 0.125 mm predominate in the composition of the sample. Therefore, this new method allows the precise location of the DoC to be obtained in a fast and simple way. Furthermore, this method has the advantage that it is not affected by the modifications that may be experienced by both the study area and the cross-shore beach profile.     

An ecohydrological approach to predicting regional woody species distribution patterns in dryland ecosystems

This paper presents a quantitative ecohydrological framework for predicting regional distribution patterns of woody species in dryland ecosystems. The framework is based on an existing stochastic model for the daily mass balance of water that represents the interactions between soils, climate, and vegetation. Individual species selection is based on an optimality trade-off hypothesis, which states that dryland vegetation patterns are constrained by maximization of water use and simultaneous minimization of water stress. The relative importance of water use and stress avoidance to the overall fitness of three Acacia species is determined from the heterogeneous basin, the Upper Ewaso Ng’iro river basin, of the central Kenya highlands. The model results indicate that overall fitness is more strongly influenced by water use than stress avoidance but that consideration of both stress avoidance and water use is critical to predicting basin-scale patterns of species distribution. We identify a linear trend in the frequency and intensity of storms with the same annual total using a basin-wide gauge precipitation dataset. After calibration, we apply the basin average linear trends in time for average rain per storm and storm arrival rates. The model results indicate the upslope migration of two species, Acacia tortilis and Acacia xanthophloea to areas with higher total rainfall. Lastly, we explore the modeled changes of species cover in the basin influenced by changes in rainfall total holding growing season rainfall variability constant and changes in growing season rainfall variability holding total rainfall constant. We find that changes in dryland species distribution patterns and relative abundance may be as sensitive to growing season rainfall variability as they are to changes in total rainfall amounts.     

The contrasted evolution of high and low flows and precipitation indices in the Duero basin (Spain)

Abstract

Trends in high and low flows are valuable indicators of hydrological change because they highlight changes in various parts of the frequency distribution of streamflow series. This enables improved assessment of water availability in regions with high seasonal and inter-annual variability. There has been a substantial reduction in water resources in the Duero basin (Iberian Peninsula, Spain) and other areas of the Mediterranean region during the last 50 years, and this is likely to continue because of climate change. In this study, we investigated the evolution and trends in high and low flows in the Spanish part of the Duero basin, and in equivalent or closely-related precipitation indices for the period 1961–2005. The results showed a general trend of decrease in the frequency and magnitude of high flows throughout most of the basin. Moreover, the number of days with low flows significantly increased over this period. No clear relationship was evident between the evolution of high/low flows and changes in the distribution frequencies of the precipitation series. In contrast to what was expected, the number of days with heavy precipitation and the mean annual precipitation did not show significant trends across the basin, and the number of days without rainfall decreased slightly. The divergence between precipitation and runoff evolution was more accentuated in spring and summer. In the absence of trends in precipitation, it is possible that reforestation processes in the region, and increasing temperatures in recent decades, could be related to the decreasing frequency of high flows and the increasing frequency of low flows.

Editor Z.W. Kundzewicz; Associate editor S. Grimaldi

Citation Morán-Tejeda, E., López-Moreno, J.I., Vicente-Serrano, S.M., Lorenzo-Lacruz, J. and Ceballos-Barbancho, A., 2012. The contrasted evolution of high and low flows and precipitation indices in the Duero basin (Spain). Hydrological Sciences Journal, 57 (4), 591–611.     

Reconstruction of a flash flood with large wood transport and its influence on hazard patterns in an ungauged mountain basin

The reconstruction of past flash floods in ungauged basins leads to a high level of uncertainty, which increases if other processes are involved such as the transport of large wood material. An important flash flood occurred in 1997 in Venero Claro (Central Spain), causing significant economic losses. The wood material clogged bridge sections, raising the water level upstream. The aim of this study was to reconstruct this event, analysing the influence of woody debris transport on the flood hazard pattern. Because the reach in question was affected by backwater effects due to bridge clogging, using only high water mark or palaeostage indicators may overestimate discharges, and so other methods are required to estimate peak flows. Therefore, the peak discharge was estimated (123 ± 18 m³ s^–1) using indirect methods, but one‐dimensional hydraulic simulation was also used to validate these indirect estimates through an iterative process (127 ± 33 m³ s^–1) and reconstruct the bridge obstruction to obtain the blockage ratio during the 1997 event (~48%) and the bridge clogging curves. Rainfall–Runoff modelling with stochastic simulation of different rainfall field configurations also helped to confirm that a peak discharge greater than 150 m³ s^–1 is very unlikely to occur and that the estimated discharge range is consistent with the estimated rainfall amount (233 ± 27 mm). It was observed that the backwater effect due to the obstruction (water level ~7 m) made the 1997 flood (~35‐year return period) equivalent to the 50‐year flood. This allowed the equivalent return period to be defined as the recurrence interval of an event of specified magnitude, which, where large woody debris is present, is equivalent in water depth and extent of flooded area to a more extreme event of greater magnitude. These results highlight the need to include obstruction phenomena in flood hazard analysis. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Comparative study of sampling methods and in situ and laboratory analysis for shallow-water submarine hydrothermal systems

A primary aim for sampling of submarine hydrothermal vents is to minimize inclusion of ambient seawater. Here, we compare the results of three different sampling methods (air displacement, two-valve bottle, and syringes) for shallow submarine systems. Mixing of hydrothermal fluid with seawater is unavoidable; however, calculations based on linear mixing models allow estimation of the hydrothermal fluid end-member composition. The results show that sampling with a two-valve bottle and syringes are the best options because they allow collection of samples with a large proportion of hydrothermal fluid. Additionally, we compare the results of in situ and laboratory analyses of the fluid samples, and demonstrate that determination of chemical composition in situ is the best option for some components, as re-equilibration affects some component concentrations (i.e. bicarbonate). Conversely, silica determination in situ usually underestimates the concentration in the fluid, as it does not account for polymeric silica. Other components can be measured either in the field or in the laboratory.     

Life history of the bathyal octopus Pteroctopus tetracirrhus (Mollusca,Cephalopoda) in the Mediterranean Sea

The life cycle of the deep-sea octopus Pteroctopus tetracirrhus was studied from monthly samples obtained throughout the year in different areas of the western Mediterranean (mainly around the Balearic Islands and along the coast of the Iberian Peninsula). A total of 373 individuals (205 females, 168 males) were analyzed; females ranged from 4.5 to 14.0 cm mantle length (ML) and males from 4.5 to 11.5 cm ML. There were few small-sized octopuses (<7 cm ML) in the samples, which might indicate that these individuals inhabit rocky grounds that are not accessible to trawlers or waters deeper than the maximum depth sampled (800 m). The species occurred more frequently around the Balearic Islands than along the Iberian Peninsula as they appeared in 20% and 7%, respectively, of the hauls in these areas. The octopus inhabits the lower continental shelf and upper slope in both areas, primarily between 200 and 500 m depth. Modal lengths were followed from autumn, when recruits were caught by trawlers, to summer, when reproduction took place. Females grew from 8 to 10 cm ML from winter to spring, but this modal size did not increase further in summer; males grew from 7 to 9 cm ML from winter to spring. The total disappearance of large individuals after summer suggests a life cycle lasting a single year. The evolution of the monthly mean sizes showed that the growth was best described by log-linear functions in both sexes. The length at first maturity was clearly higher in females (12 cm ML) than in males (8 cm ML). A total of 30 different prey items, belonging to four major taxonomic groups (crustaceans, osteichthyes, cephalopods and gastropods), were identified in the stomach contents. The diet of the octopus was based on crustaceans and teleosts, which accounted for 75% and 23% of the prey items, respectively. Cephalopods and gastropods were accessory prey as they only represented 1.6% and 0.7%, respectively, of the total. The octopus showed a marked preference for the benthic fish Symphurus nigrescens and the endobenthic crustacean Alpheus glaber. The bathymetric distribution of P. tetracirrhus coincides with those of these two main prey, which suggests that the distribution of the octopus might be strongly linked to its trophic resources.     

Influence of size on the constitutive equations of concrete or rock dowels

The numerical fracture analysis of non‐homogeneous rock or concrete dowels subjected to shear and compression is described in detail. The method of analysis allows the consideration of scale and rate effects due to material non‐homogeneity and fracture. The proposed approach is verified by comparing numerical predictions with experimental results reported in the literature for a series of small rock samples, since experimental evidence for large bodies is not yet available (2007). Results generated by Monte Carlo simulation using the so‐called discrete element method to model the dowels suggest that a simple three parameters law can be used to predict the relationship between tangential stress at the base and lateral distortion. It is observed that the larger the size of the cubes, the smaller both the peak tangential stress and the rupture distortion. Size effects are also evaluated in samples with vertical restraint. The influence of loading rate is likewise numerically assessed for two sample sizes. The effect is compatible with experimental evidence available for concrete using small samples. Copyright © 2008 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.