Applicability of time-to-failure analysis to accelerated strain before earthquakes and volcanic eruptions

We examine quantitatively the ranges of applicability of the equation Ω= A+B [1− t/t _f ] ^m for predicting 'system-sized' failure times t _f in the Earth. In applications Ω is a proxy measure for strain or crack length, and A , B and the index m are model parameters determined by curve fitting. We consider constitutive rules derived from (a) Charles' law for subcritical crack growth; (b) Voight's equation; and (c) a simple percolation model, and show in each case that this equation holds only when m < 0. When m > 0, the general solution takes the form Ω = A + B [1 + t / T  ] ^m , where T   is a positive time constant, and no failure time can be defined. Reported values for volcanic precursors based on rate data are found to be within the range of applicability of time-to-failure analysis ( m < 0). The same applies to seismic moment release before earthquakes, at the expense of poor retrospective predictability of the time of the a posteriori -defined main shock. In contrast, reported values based on increasing cumulative Benioff strain occur in the region where a system-sized failure time cannot be defined ( m > 0; commonly m ≈ 0.3). We conclude on physical grounds that cumulative seismic moment is preferred as the most direct measure of seismic strain. If cumulative Benioff strain is to be retained on empirical grounds, then it is important that these data either be re-examined with the independent constraint m < 0, or that for the case 0 < m + 1 < 1, a specific correction for the time-integration of cumulative data be applied, of the form ΣΩ = At + B '{1 − [1 − t/t _f ] ^m+1 }.     

Large Leonid Meteoroids And The Historical Activity Of Comet 55p/Tempel–Tuttle

We interpret the historical activity of comet 55P/Tempel–Tuttle in terms of the observed characteristics of present-day short period comets. In this respect, it is now realized that such comets are liable to undergo significant outburst and mantle loss events at intervals separated by of order a few hundred years. On this basis one might well expect comet 55P/Tempel–Tuttle to have undergone several outbursts since its earliest sighing in 1366. The limited absolute magnitude data available for 55P/Tempel–Tuttle is not inconsistent with the suggestion that the comet underwent outbursts during its 1699 and 1865 perihelion returns. If the outbursts of comet 55P/Tempel–Tuttle are interpreted in terms of mantle loss events then the bright, electrophonic sound producing fireballs reported during the great Leonid meteor storm of 1833 may have been due to the Earth sampling mantle material ejected during the outburst of 1699. This revised version was published online in July 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date.     

Multiproxy evidence of an early Holocene (8.2 kyr) climate oscillation in central Nova Scotia,Canada

An early Holocene lake sediment record from central Nova Scotia contains a minerogenic oscillation that is closely correlative with the 8.2 kyr event (ca. 8200 cal. yr BP), an event that has not been reported elsewhere in Atlantic Canada. A variety of biological and sedimentological indicators have been examined to characterise autochthonous and allochthonous changes that occurred during this time. The minerogenic upper oscillation (UO, ca. 8400 cal. yr BP) is marked by an increase in the chrysophyte:diatom ratio. Following the oscillation, the diatom community reflects a shift to more productive, less acidic conditions. The pollen record shows no major response to this short‐lived event. Lithostratigraphic analyses indicates that the UO is characterised by an increase in clastic content, magnetic susceptibility and mean sediment grain size, all indicators of changing environmental conditions, most likely the result of regional cooling. The Taylor Lake record adds to a growing body of evidence for a widespread, hemispheric climate oscillation at 8.2 kyr. Copyright © 2002 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Distribution of DDT and other persistent organic contaminants in Canyons and on the continental shelf off the central California coast

Sediment samples were collected to delineate the distribution of contaminants along the central California coast. Sampling included a variety of Canyons and shelf/slope areas to evaluate contaminant transport patterns and potential delivery to Canyons and the continental slope to a depth of 1200 m. Sediments were collected and analyzed for organic contaminants using standard techniques of the NOAA National Status and Trends Program (NS&T). DDT is distributed on the shelf within a zone of fine-grained sediments between Half Moon and Monterey Bays. DDT was found at higher concentrations in Ascension, A?o Nuevo, and Monterey/Soquel Canyons than in Pioneer and Carmel Canyons, the Gulf of the Farallones, or the continental slope. The Monterey Bay watershed appears to be the primary source of DDT. In contrast, PAHs and PCBs on the shelf appear to be derived primarily from San Francisco Bay. DDT appears to be delivered to the deep ocean via the Canyons more than from cross-shelf sediment transport. Sediment budget estimates for the continental shelf north of Monterey Bay need further refinement and more data to account for the movement of material from Monterey Bay onto the shelf.     

The effect of habitat and environmental history on otolith chemistry of barramundi Lates calcarifer in estuarine populations of a regulated tropical river

We examine the microchemistry of otoliths of cohorts of a fished population of the large catadromous fish, barramundi Lates calcarifer from the estuary of a large tropical river. Barramundi from the estuary of the large, heavily regulated Fitzroy River, north-eastern Australia were analysed by making transects of ⁸⁷Sr/⁸⁶Sr isotope and trace metal/Ca ratios from the core to the outer edge. Firstly, we examined the Sr/Ca, Ba/Ca, Mg/Ca and Mn/Ca and ⁸⁷Sr/⁸⁶Sr isotope ratios in otoliths of barramundi tagged in either freshwater or estuarine habitats that were caught by the commercial fishery in the estuary. We used ⁸⁷Sr/⁸⁶Sr isotope ratios to identify periods of freshwater residency and assess whether trace metal/Ca ratios varied between habitats. Only Sr/Ca consistently varied between known periods of estuarine or freshwater residency. The relationships between trace metal/Ca and river flow, salinity, temperature were examined in fish tagged and recaptured in the estuary. We found weak and inconsistent patterns in relationships between these variables in the majority of fish. These results suggest that both individual movement history within the estuary and the scale of environmental monitoring were reducing our ability to detect any patterns. Finally, we examined fish in the estuary from two dominant age cohorts (4 and 7 year old) before and after a large flood in 2003 to ascertain if the flood had enabled fish from freshwater habitats to migrate to the estuary. There was no difference in the proportion of fish in the estuary that had accessed freshwater after the flood. Instead, we found that larger individuals with of each age cohort were more likely to have spent a period in freshwater. This highlights the need to maintain freshwater flows in rivers. About half the fish examined had accessed freshwater habitats before capture. Of these, all had spent at least their first two months in marine salinity waters before entering freshwater and some did not enter freshwater until four years of age. This contrasts with the results of several previous studies in other parts of the range that found that access to freshwater swamps by larval barramundi was important for enhanced population productivity and recruitment.     

Seasonal variations of the near surfacelayer parameters over the Antarctic ice sheet in Princess Elizabeth Land,East Antarctica

Analysis of sensible heat flux(Qh),latent heat flux(Qe),Richardson number(Ri),bulk transport coefficient(Cd) and katabatic winds are presented by using the meteorological data in the near surface layer from an automatic weather station(AWS) in Princess Elizabeth Land,East Antarctica ice sheet and the data of corresponding period at Zhongshan station in 2002.It shows that annual mean air temperature at LGB69 is-25.6°C,which is 16.4°C lower than that at Zhongshan,where the elevation is lower and located on the coast.The temperature lapse rate is about 1.0°C/110 m for the initial from coast to inland.The turbulence heat flux at LGB69 displays obvious seasonal variations with the average sensible heat flux-17.9 W/m2 and latent heat flux-0.9 W/m2.The intensity(Qh Qe) of coolling source is-18.8 W/m2 meaning the snow surface layer obtains heat from atmosphere.The near surface atmosphere is near-neutral stratified with bulk transport coefficients(Cd) around 2.8×10-3,and it is near constant when the wind speed higher than 8 m/s.The speed and the frequency of easterly Katabatic winds at LGB69 were higher than that at Zhongshan Station.     

Effect of tropospheric temperature change on the zonal mean circulation and SH winter extratropical cyclones

This study aims to understand the mechanisms which cause an overall reduction of SH extratropical cyclone activity with a slight increase in the high latitudes in a warmer climate simulated in general circulation models (GCMs) with increasing CO₂. For this purpose, we conducted idealized model experiments by forcing warm temperature anomalies to the areas where climate change models exhibit local maximum warming—the tropics in the upper troposphere and the polar regions in the lower troposphere—simultaneously and separately. The Melbourne University atmospheric GCM (R21) coupled with prescribed SST was utilized for the experiments. Our results demonstrate that the reduction of SH extratropical cyclone frequency and depth in the midlatitudes but the slight increase in the high latitudes suggested in climate change models result essentially from the tropical upper tropospheric warming. With this tropical warming, the enhanced static stability which decreases baroclinicity in the low and midlatitudes turns out to be a major contributor to the decrease of cyclone activity equatorward of 45°S whereas the increased meridional temperature gradient in the high latitudes seems an important mechanism for the increase of cyclone activity over 50°–60°S.     

The impact of inhomogenous background errors on a global wave data assimilation system

One of the main limitations in current wave data assimilation systems is the lack of an accurate representation of the structure of the background errors. In this work, models for the observational error variance, background error variance and background error correlations are developed based on the results of previous studies. These are tested in a global wave data assimilation system and the resulting wave forecasts are verified against independent observations from buoys. Forecasts of significant wave height show substantial improvement over the Australian Bureau of Meteorology's current operational wave forecasting system. However, forecasts of peak period are not similarly improved. The regional impacts of the new assimilation scheme are found to vary on a seasonal basis. Overall, it is shown that the inclusion of a latitudinally dependent background error, and improved specification of the background and observational error variances can reduce the root-mean-square error of 24-hour forecast Significant Wave Height by almost 10%.