Observations and numerical modelling of Lake Ontario breezes

Abstract

Analysis of two years of land‐based data shows that the Lake Ontario breeze develops on 30% of the days during summer. It typically develops in mid‐morning and persists until the late evening when it is replaced by a well developed land‐breeze regime. Simulations of 4 cases with the Colorado State University mesoscale model show good agreement with observations and suggest that local lake breezes are strongly influenced by adjacent water bodies (e.g. Lake Erie), the elongated shape of the lake, and the large‐scale wind direction. With gradient flows across the long axis of the lake, a broad band of along‐lake flow develops during the afternoon (easterly winds during southerly gradient flows and westerly winds during northerly gradient flows). Furthermore, during west‐to‐northwesterly gradient flow a nocturnal cyclonic eddy is predicted at the western end of the lake. These results imply that wind‐field models applied in the vicinity of Lake Ontario should incorporate the entire lake in their modelling domain.     

The economics of inaction on climate change: a sensitivity analysis

Abstract

Economic models of climate change often take the problem seriously, but paradoxically conclude that the optimal policy is to do almost nothing about it. We explore this paradox as seen in the widely used DICE model. Three aspects of that model, involving the discount rate, the assumed benefits of moderate warming, and the treatment of the latest climate science, are sufficient to explain the timidity of the model's optimal policy recommendation. With modifications to those three points, DICE shows that the optimal policy is a much higher and rapidly rising marginal carbon price; and that higher carbon price has a greater effect on physical measures of climate impacts. Our modifications exhibit nonlinear interactions; at least at low discount rates, there is synergy between individual changes to the model. At low discount rates, the inherent uncertainty about future damages looms larger in the analysis, rendering long-run economic modelling less useful. Our analysis highlights the sensitivity of the model to three debatable assumptions; it does not, and could not, lead to a more reliably ‘optimal’ cost of carbon. Cost-effectiveness analysis, focusing on the generally shorter-term cost side of the problem, reduces the economic paradoxes of the long run, and may make a greater contribution than economic optimization modelling.     

A tree-ring reconstruction of East Anglian (UK) hydroclimate variability over the last millennium

We present an annually resolved reconstruction of spring-summer precipitation variability in East Anglia, UK (52–53°N, 0–2°E) for the period AD 900–2009. A continuous regional network of 723 living (AD 1590–2009) and historical (AD 781–1790) oak (Quercus sp.) ring-width series has been constructed and shown to display significant sensitivity to precipitation variability during the March-July season. The existence of a coherent common growth signal is demonstrated in oaks growing across East Anglia, containing evidence of near-decadal aperiodic variability in precipitation throughout the last millennium. Positive correlations are established between oak growth and precipitation variability across a large region of northwest Europe, although climate-growth relationships appear time transgressive with correlations significantly weakening during the early twentieth century. Examination of the relationship between oak growth, precipitation, and the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), reveals no evidence that the NAO plays any significant role in the control of precipitation or tree growth in this region. Using Regional Curve Standardisation to preserve evidence of low-frequency growth variability in the East Anglian oak chronology, we produce a millennial length reconstruction that is capable of explaining 32–35% of annual-to-decadal regional-scale precipitation variance during 1901–2009. The full length reconstruction indicates statistically significant anomalous dry conditions during AD 900–1100 and circa-1800. An apparent prolonged wetter phase is estimated for the twelfth and thirteen centuries, whilst precipitation fluctuates between wetter and drier phases at near centennial timescales throughout the fourteenth to seventeenth centuries. Above average precipitation reconstructed for the twenty-first century is comparable with that reproduced for the 1600s. The main estimated wet and dry phases reconstructed here appear largely coherent with an independent tree-ring reconstruction for southern-central England.     

Evolution of Stratocumulus Over Land: Comparison of Ground and Aircraft Observations with Numerical Weather Prediction Simulations

Forecasting of low cloud continues to challenge numerical weather prediction. With this in mind, surface and airborne observations were made over East Anglia, UK, during March 2011 to investigate stratus and stratocumulus advecting from the sea over land. Four surface sites were deployed at various distances inland aligned approximately along the flow. In situ data include cloud-droplet measurements from an aircraft operating off the coast and a tethered balloon 100 km inland. Comparisons of thermodynamic and cloud properties are made with Met Office operational model simulations at horizontal resolutions of 4 and 1.5 km. The clouds contained droplet concentrations up to 600 cm \(^{-3}\) within polluted outflow off Europe. These measurements were compared to three different model schemes for predicting droplet concentration: two of them perform well at low to moderate concentrations but asymptote to 375 cm \(^{-3}\) . Microwave radiometers at the ground sites retrieved liquid water paths that reduced with distance inland and were generally below 200 g m \(^{-2}\) . The modelled water path performs well upstream but more erratically far inland. Comparisons of thermodynamic profiles are made within both Lagrangian and Eulerian frameworks and show the model predicted changes in equivalent potential temperature generally within 1 K, with occasional errors of 2 K or more. The modelled cloud-top temperatures were in good agreement with the observations down to \(-\) 7  \(^{\circ }\) C, but the magnitude of the temperature inversion, although good at times, was too small by on average 1.6 K. The different simulations produced different cloud-top water contents due to a combination of resolution and scientific upgrades to the model, but they generally underestimate the amount of cloud water. Major changes, such as the mesoscale temporary cloud breaks on 2 March 2011 and the complete clearance on 4 March, were seemingly predicted by the model for the correct reasons.     

SiB3对不同下垫面的模拟试验与验证

首先介绍简单生物圈模式版本3(Simple Biosphere Model 3,SiB3)相比SiB2的改进之处以及相应的参数化方案。为了检验SiB3模式能否模拟不同下垫面的地气之间水分和能量交换,本文在全球选择3个代表高、中、低纬度的典型实验站点(青藏高原安多站点、亚马逊流域的Km34站点和美国中西部的WLEF站点),利用SiB3进行模拟分析和实验验证。研究结果表明,SiB3能够较好地模拟出不同下垫面的地表感热通量、潜热通量和净辐射通量随时间的变化率以及变化趋势,模式模拟值和测量值的相关系数达到080左右。但与实测相比,SiB3模拟的感热通量值仍偏高。在安多站点,模式模拟的地表土壤水分比较干燥,且模拟的地表温度较测量值偏高。     

North Atlantic sea surface temperatures and their relation to the North Atlantic Oscillation during the last 230?years

August Sea Surface Temperatures (aSSTs) based on fossil diatom assemblages are generated with 2?year average resolution from a 230-year-long sediment core (Rapid 21-12B), from the Reykjanes Ridge in the subpolar North Atlantic. The results indicate a warming trend of ~0.5°C of the surface waters at the Reykjanes Ridge for the last 230?years. Superimposed on this warming trend there is a multidecadal to decadal aSST variability of up to 1°C. The interval from the 1770s to the 1830s represents the coldest period, whereas ~1860?C1880 represents the warmest period during the last 230?years. The last 25?years is characterized by a warming trend showing strong decadal aSST variability with several warm years, but also the coldest years since the 1820s. The time of these cold years in the mid-1970s, -1980s and -1990s correspond with the documented great salinity anomalies (GSA) in the North Atlantic suggesting increased fluxes of cold, low-salinity waters from the Arctic during the last decades. The aSST record and the August North Atlantic Oscillation (aNAO) index show similar multidecadal-scale variability indicating a close coupling between the oceanic and atmospheric patterns. The aSST record shows a negative correlation with the aNAO indicating cold aSST during the positive aNAO trend and vice versa. Results suggest that the wind driven variation in volume fluxes of the North Atlantic surface waters could be the major mechanism behind the observed relationship.     

Near UV absorption spectra and photolysis products of difunctional organic nitrates: Possible importance as NO x reservoirs

Difunctional organic nitrates are important products of the atmospheric reaction of NO₃ radicals with unsaturated hydrocarbons about which relatively little is known. In a continuation of the investigation of the atmospheric chemistry of such compounds, the UV absorption spectra of the following organic dinitrates and keto nitrates have been quantitively measured in the gas phase at 298±2 K and atmospheric pressure: 1,2-propandiol dinitrate, CH₃CH(ONO₂)CH₂(ONO₂); 1,2-butandiol dinitrate, CH₃CH₂CH(ONO₂)CH₂(ONO₂); 2,3-butandiol dinitrate, CH₃CH(ONO₂)CH(ONO₂)CH₃;cis 1,4-dinitrooxy-2-butene, CH₂(ONO₂)CH=CHCH₂(ONO₂); 3,4-dinitrooxy-1-butene, CH₂(ONO₂CH(ONO₂)CH=CH₂; -nitrooxy acetone, CH₃COCH₂(ONO₂); 1-nitrooxy-2-butanone, CH₃CH₂COCH₂(ONO₂); 3-nitrooxy-2-butanone, CH₃CH(ONO₂)COCH₃.Although the UV spectra of the nitrates are all very similar in shape those of the keto nitrates are red-shifted compared to the dinitrates and in the spectral range of atmospheric interest (>290 nm) their absorption cross-sections are approximately a factor of 5 higher. The cross-sections of the dinitrates are a factor of 2 higher than those reported in the literature for the corresponding alkyl mononitrates.The UV absorption cross-sections of the difunctional nitrates were used in combination with solar actinic flux data to estimate photolysis frequencies and consequently atmospheric lifetimes for these compounds. The results indicate that for the saturated difunctional nitrates studied in this work photolysis will generally be somewhat some important than reaction with OH radicals as an atmospheric removal process. However, for unsaturated nitrates loss due to reaction with OH will dominate over photolysis as an atmospheric sink.Preliminary FT-IR analyses of the photolysis products of -nitrooxy acetone, 3-nitrooxy-2-butanone and 2,3-butandiol dinitrate using both mercury and fluorescent lamps indicate that NO₂ is released in the primary step. The further reactions of the radicals thus produced result in the formation of CO, aldehydes and PAN. The possible significance of the results for difunctional organic nitrate as reservoirs for reactive odd nitrogen NO _y in the atmosphere, especially during the night, is briefly discussed.     

山西省早白垩纪碳酸岩元素同位素和锆石U-Pb定年研究

碳酸岩广泛出露在华北克拉通的山西省。此文中,针对研究区的碳酸岩墙,我们给出新的地球化学、Sr-Nd同位素和锆石U-Pb年龄。LA-ICP-MS锆石定年结果显示,该岩墙的侵位年龄为132.9Ma,全岩K-Ar年龄为131.3~132.6 Ma。碳酸岩墙具有非常一致的主量元素组成,富集轻稀土元素和大离子亲石元素(Ba、U、Pb、Sr),以及亏损K和高场强元素(Ta、P和Ti)。另外,该岩墙具有相对一致的(87Sr/86Sr)i(0.7079~0.7083)和负的εNd(t)(-16.7~-15.2)。以上地球化学特征表明,该岩墙为大陆地壳和此大陆岩石圈地幔混合时期,受明显地壳混染的下岩石圈地幔的部分熔融作用。     

Well-log correlation using a back-propagation neural network

We present a back-propagation neural network with an input layer in the form of a tapped delay line wich can be trained effectively on one or several well logs to recognize a particular geological marker. Subsequently, the neural network proposes locations of this marker on other wells in the field. Another neural network, similar in architecture to the first one, performs the same task for secondary markers using, in addition to the well logs, a depth reference function to the first marker. This method is shown to have better performance and better discrimination than standard cross-correlation techniques. It lends itself well for an interactive implementation on a workstation.     

Isotopic age determinations on granitic rocks from Tasmania

Potassium‐argon and rubidium‐strontium isotopic age measurements show that emplacement of granitic rocks in Tasmania occurred during the Late Devonian and Early Carboniferous and in pre‐Devonian times, possibly in the Cambrian. In addition, a Precambrian granite, dated at about 750 m.y., has been recognized on the west coast of King Island.

The granitic bodies of pre‐Devonian age include the Murchison River Granite, the Dove River Granite and its correlatives, and the adamellite on the southwest coast of Tasmania at Elliott Bay. These rocks were deformed during the Devonian Tabberabberan Orogeny with the result that leakage of radiogenic daughter products has occurred from minerals. Hence the indicated ages are younger than the true ages. Possibly these granitic rocks were emplaced during the Jukesian Movement of the Tyennan Orogeny, in the Late Cambrian, although a Precambrian age cannot be excluded for some of the bodies.

As recognized by earlier workers the most important period of emplacement of granitic rocks in Tasmania was in the Middle Palaeozoic. The measured dates for this group of rocks range from 375 to 335 m.y., and indicate that intrusion occurred over an extended period from the Late Devonian to the Early or possibly Middle Carboniferous. There are distinct concentrations of measured ages at about 370 and 340 m.y. The granitic bodies of northeast Tasmania mainly yield the older age, whereas those of northwest Tasmania give the younger age. As the granites are post‐tectonic bodies the older age of about 375 m.y. provides a younger limit to the time of completion of the main folding in the Tabberabberan Orogeny, and this is consistent with the stratigraphic evidence.

The evidence suggests that generation of granitic magma was initiated during the main folding associated with the Tabberabberan Orogeny, but that emplacement of the granites into the upper crust continued over a long period subsequently to the main folding phase. Alternatively, the younger granitic bodies, dated at about 340 m.y., may indicate that these rocks are related to the Early Carboniferous Kanimblan Orogeny recognized in Victoria and New South Wales; however, there is no field evidence to support such a proposition.