The role of prior model calibration on predictions with ensemble Kalman filter

This paper, based on a real world case study (Limmat aquifer, Switzerland), compares inverse groundwater flow models calibrated with specified numbers of monitoring head locations. These models are updated in real time with the ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF) and the prediction improvement is assessed in relation to the amount of monitoring locations used for calibration and updating. The prediction errors of the models calibrated in transient state are smaller if the amount of monitoring locations used for the calibration is larger. For highly dynamic groundwater flow systems a transient calibration is recommended as a model calibrated in steady state can lead to worse results than a noncalibrated model with a well-chosen uniform conductivity. The model predictions can be improved further with the assimilation of new measurement data from on-line sensors with the EnKF. Within all the studied models the reduction of 1-day hydraulic head prediction error (in terms of mean absolute error [MAE]) with EnKF lies between 31% (assimilation of head data from 5 locations) and 72% (assimilation of head data from 85 locations). The largest prediction improvements are expected for models that were calibrated with only a limited amount of historical information. It is worthwhile to update the model even with few monitoring locations as it seems that the error reduction with EnKF decreases exponentially with the amount of monitoring locations used. These results prove the feasibility of data assimilation with EnKF also for a real world case and show that improved predictions of groundwater levels can be obtained.     

SporadicE ionization associated with meteor events

Two meteor events which were sighted in the Gujarat skies of India, were accompained by the visibility of sporadicE ionization on the ionograms recorded at Ahmedabad (Geog. Lat. 23·2°N, long. 72·30°E). The first event was the Dhajala fireball which flashed into the geoatmosphere along an E-N to W-S trail at about 20·40 h IST on 28 January 1976; the closest distance of the ground projection of meteor trail from Ahmedabad was 50km. The other event was a possible meteor group sighted over Ahmedabad on 28 May 1978, at about 21·10 h IST. This work describes the nature of the sporadicE ionization observed on Ahmedabad ionograms during the two events. Features of theEs echo during the Dhajala event which indicate that it could be of meteoric origin are discussed. Meteor theory is used to relate the observed ionization with the physical dimensions of the Dhajala meteorite as obtained by other workers.     

To what extent can atmospheric deposition influence the natural background of metals in ground waters? A case study in the Czech Republic

In harmony with requirements of Water Framework Directive the natural backgrounds of selected metals were established on the territory of Czech Republic. This paper is intended to provide characteristics and results of testing methods focused on quantification of the impacts of anthropogenic activities based on data of regional monitoring and their separation from acid atmospheric deposition including an appropriate discussion regarding the natural backgrounds of relevant metals. The results indicate that even in regions extremely affected by acid atmospheric deposition as is the territory of the Czech Republic this acid deposition will not have direct impact on the quality of ground waters on a regional scale. Consequently, the proved changes in quality of ground waters seem to have been caused by secondary processes, specifically by mobilization of metals in a rock environment due to increased acidity.     

Power spectrum of geomagneticK p-index detected at Misallat magnetic station

TheK _p-indices measured at Misallat station [ø = 29°45 N; = 30°54 E] during the period 1958–1989, have been compared with the data of two geomagnetic stations; one of them has similar longitude as Misallat and the second has almost similar latitude. The spectra of daily and hourly data of the three stations are compared together to define the latitude and longitude-effects on the detected periodicities. Daily periodicities ofK _p-index activities at the values 32.7, 21.2, 12.9, 11.6 and 9.2 days have been obtained to be common in the spectra of the three stations. The existence of 5-days periodicity in these stations has also been detected.     

X-ray transient sources

The galactic distribution and physical nature of X-ray transient sources is investigated. Two types of transients are considered. The observational data on 41 X-ray transient sources are given, and the average parameters of hard and soft X-ray transients are estimated.     

Observation of Precipitating Systems over Complex Orography with Meteorological Doppler Radars: A Feasibility Study

Summary  This paper concerns the use of airborne or ground-based Doppler radars to observe precipitating systems over complex orography. As nearly all of the previous experiments involving Doppler radars were conducted over flat surfaces over the continents or the oceans, new techniques are needed firstly to separate ground clutter from meteorological signal and, in the case of airborne Doppler observations, to deduce navigational errors. Secondly, it is necessary to take the atmospheric circulation induced by orography into account in the three-dimensional wind field analysis. Variational techniques are presented to solve these problems. The proposed methods are tested with simulated ground-based and airborne Doppler radar observations for analytic flows over analytic terrains and for numerically simulated wind and reflectivity fields for the Brig event (22 September 1993) of heavy precipitation over the southern flank of the Alps (Cosma and Richard, 1998), and with actual airborne Doppler data relative to weak snow showers over the Rocky Mountains on 12 March 1995. Received March 22, 1999/Revised June 1, 1999     

A ten-to-twelve year variation in the stratosphere of the Northern Hemisphere

This review paper for STIB (Stratosphere-Troposphere Interaction and the Biosphere; a proposed core project for IGBP) summarizes several features of a recently discovered 10–12 year oscillation in the atmosphere on the Northern Hemisphere. The oscillation is especially strong in the stratosphere during the warmer half of the year, but it is evident in the stratosphere and troposphere also in winter if the data are grouped according to the phase of the Quasi-Biennial Oscillation of the wind in the equatorial stratosphere. During the 40 years with data available to describe the oscillation it was phase locked with the 11-year solar cycle.Affiliate Scientist, NCAR.The National Center for Atmospheric Research is sponsored by the National Science Foundation.     

Dark energy model in anisotropic Bianchi type-III space-time with variable EoS parameter

A new dark energy model in anisotropic Bianchi type-III space-time with variable equation of state (EoS) parameter has been investigated in the present paper. To get the deterministic model, we consider that the expansion θ in the model is proportional to the eigen value s² ₂\sigma^{2}_{~2} of the shear tensor s^j _i\sigma^{j}_{~i}. The EoS parameter ω is found to be time dependent and its existing range for this model is in good agreement with the recent observations of SNe Ia data (Knop et al. in Astrophys. J. 598:102, 2003) and SNe Ia data with CMBR anisotropy and galaxy clustering statistics (Tegmark et al. in Astrophys. J. 606:702, 2004). It has been suggested that the dark energy that explains the observed accelerating expansion of the universe may arise due to the contribution to the vacuum energy of the EoS in a time dependent background. Some physical aspects of dark energy model are also discussed.     

Observations of the structure and evolution of solar flares with a soft X-ray telescope

132 soft X-ray flare events have been observed with The Aerospace Corporation/Marshall Space Flight Center S-056 X-ray telescope that was part of the ATM complement of instruments aboard Skylab. Analyses of these data are reported in this paper. The observations are summarized and a detailed discussion of the X-ray flare structures is presented. The data indicated that soft X-rays emitted by a flare come primarily from an intense well-defined core surrounded by a region of fainter, more diffuse emission. Loop structures are found to constitute a fundamental characteristic of flare cores and arcades of loops are found to play a more important role in the flare phenomena than previously thought. Size distributions of these core features are presented and a classification scheme describing the brightest flare X-ray features is proposed. The data show no correlations between the size of core features and: (1) the peak X-ray intensity, as indicated by detectors on the SOLRAD satellite; (2) the rise time of the X-ray flare event, or (3) the presence of a nonthermal X-ray component. An analysis of flare evolution indicates evidence for preliminary heating and energy release prior to the main phase of the flare. Core features are found to be remarkably stable and retain their shape throughout a flare. Most changes in the overall configuration seem to be the result of the appearance, disappearance or change in brightness of individual features, rather than the restructuring or re-orientation of these features. Brief comparisons with several theories are presented.     

The cooling of flare produced plasmas in the solar corona

Solar flare X-rays, at energies less than 10 keV, are emitted by hot plasmas located in the corona. Three plasma cooling models are examined in detail. The cooling of the electrons by Coulomb collisions with ions at a lower temperature would require the observed material to occupy very large volumes. Cooling could take place by conduction or by radiation and observations are proposed which would allow the dominant cooling mechanism to be established.On leave during a portion of this work as University Research Fellow in Astronomy, University of Leicester, England.