The role of prior model calibration on predictions with ensemble Kalman filter

This paper, based on a real world case study (Limmat aquifer, Switzerland), compares inverse groundwater flow models calibrated with specified numbers of monitoring head locations. These models are updated in real time with the ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF) and the prediction improvement is assessed in relation to the amount of monitoring locations used for calibration and updating. The prediction errors of the models calibrated in transient state are smaller if the amount of monitoring locations used for the calibration is larger. For highly dynamic groundwater flow systems a transient calibration is recommended as a model calibrated in steady state can lead to worse results than a noncalibrated model with a well-chosen uniform conductivity. The model predictions can be improved further with the assimilation of new measurement data from on-line sensors with the EnKF. Within all the studied models the reduction of 1-day hydraulic head prediction error (in terms of mean absolute error [MAE]) with EnKF lies between 31% (assimilation of head data from 5 locations) and 72% (assimilation of head data from 85 locations). The largest prediction improvements are expected for models that were calibrated with only a limited amount of historical information. It is worthwhile to update the model even with few monitoring locations as it seems that the error reduction with EnKF decreases exponentially with the amount of monitoring locations used. These results prove the feasibility of data assimilation with EnKF also for a real world case and show that improved predictions of groundwater levels can be obtained.     

A cyclicity in the early brigantian (D2) limestones east of the clwydian range,north wales and its use in correlation

For the first time, minor cyclicity is described from some limestones in the lower part of the Brigantian (D2) succession of the Mold district North Wales which can be traced throughout the area enabling a detailed correlation to be established. The minor cyclicity may have been caused by eustatic sea-level fluctuations. Periods of emergence associated with each regressive phase are demonstrated by the presence of subaerial features and terrestrial deposits. The lateral persistence of the cycles is confirmed by comparison with established faunal and lithological horizons. Correlation with other cyclic Brigantian strata in Yorkshire, Derbyshire and Bristol is briefly discussed. The Asbian/Brigantian (D1/D2) boundary in North Wales is described and distinctive faunal and lithological changes similar to those in the area of the stratotype in north England have been recorded.     

Spectroscopic binaries near the North Galactic Pole paper 6: BD 33° 2206

Photoelectric radial-velocity measurements have confirmed O. C. Wilson’s finding that BD 33° 2206, the secondary star in the wide visual binary ADS 8470, is a spectroscopic binary. It has an eccentric orbit with a period of 100 days. Its γ-velocity is close to the constant radial velocity of the visual primary, confirming the physical association of the stars.     

Optical Fiber Interferometers for Referencing Surface Benchmarks to Depth

—We have developed and operated optical fiber interferometers for monitoring displace ments within boreholes, as part of a program of crustal deformation measurement. These optical fiber strainmeters—a total of twelve instruments at two sites in southern California—were installed to sense the motion of the end-monuments of much longer baseline strainmeters and tiltmeters, allowing correction for any near-surface ground movement. One of the installations was specifically designed to investigate the distribution of deformation with depth, measuring over several borehole length-intervals from 5 m to 50 m. The displacements recorded over year-long time scales along these length intervals range up to 6 mm and show internal consistency and stability at the 50 μ m level. The use of these interferometers to provide correction signals for kilometer-scale crustal strain measurements has resulted in greatly improved records.     

Space-time characteristics of a fracture region determined from long-term anomalies of the radon concentration

The paper proposes a method for studying long-term anomalies of the radon concentration that are produced by an impulse generated in a fracture source over a finite time interval. Using this method, experimental data are interpreted numerically in order to determine the space-time characteristics of the fracture region and parameters of fluid migration.     

A mass ratio limit for primordial black holes

We augment our scenario for the formation of astronomical objects from macroscopic superstrings by the assumption that the central matter keeps its identity in the fragmentation. From the condition that the angular momentum per mass squared of this matter should be less than the Kerr limit G/c, we obtain upper limits for the ratio of the mass of central black holes M(BH) to the mass M of the host object. This limit is M(BH)/M ≈ 0.001, and, expressed in observed quantities, approximately M(BH)/M ≈ σ²/(v · c) where σ is the r.m.s. velocity, v the rotational velocity and c the velocity of light. The valuesM(BH) agree with the observed behaviour both in order of magnitude and in the variation with velocity dispersion. (© 2003 WILEY‐VCH Verlag GmbH & Co. KGaA, Weinheim)     

Dynamical attitude model for Gaia

The Dynamical Attitude Model (DAM) is a simulation package developed to achieve a detailed understanding of the Gaia spacecraft attitude. It takes into account external physical effects and considers internal hardware components controlling the satellite. The main goal of the Gaia mission is to obtain extremely accurate astrometry, and this necessitates a good knowledge of Gaia’s behaviour as a spinning rigid body under the influence of various perturbations. This paper describes these perturbations and how they are modelled in DAM.     

Observation of Precipitating Systems over Complex Orography with Meteorological Doppler Radars: A Feasibility Study

Summary  This paper concerns the use of airborne or ground-based Doppler radars to observe precipitating systems over complex orography. As nearly all of the previous experiments involving Doppler radars were conducted over flat surfaces over the continents or the oceans, new techniques are needed firstly to separate ground clutter from meteorological signal and, in the case of airborne Doppler observations, to deduce navigational errors. Secondly, it is necessary to take the atmospheric circulation induced by orography into account in the three-dimensional wind field analysis. Variational techniques are presented to solve these problems. The proposed methods are tested with simulated ground-based and airborne Doppler radar observations for analytic flows over analytic terrains and for numerically simulated wind and reflectivity fields for the Brig event (22 September 1993) of heavy precipitation over the southern flank of the Alps (Cosma and Richard, 1998), and with actual airborne Doppler data relative to weak snow showers over the Rocky Mountains on 12 March 1995. Received March 22, 1999/Revised June 1, 1999