Developing a large‐scale water‐balance approach to seasonal forecasting: application to the 2012 drought in Britain

Seasonal hydrological forecasts, or outlooks, can potentially provide water managers with estimates of river flows and water resources for a lead time of several months ahead. An experimental modelling tool for national hydrological outlooks has been developed which combines a hydrological model estimate of sub‐surface water storage across Britain with a range of seasonal rainfall forecasts to provide estimates of area‐wide hydrological conditions up to a few months ahead. The link is made between a deficit in sub‐surface water storage and a requirement for additional rainfall over subsequent months to enable sub‐surface water storage and river flow to return to mean monthly values. The new scheme is assessed over a recent period which includes the termination of the drought that affected much of Britain in the first few months of 2012. An illustration is provided of its use to obtain return‐period estimates of the ‘rainfall required’ to ease drought conditions; these are well in excess of 200 years for several regions of the country, for termination within a month of 1 April 2012, and still exceed 40 years for termination within three months. National maps of sub‐surface water storage anomaly show for the first time the current spatial variability of drought severity. They can also be used to provide an indication of how a drought situation might develop in the next few months given a range of possible future rainfall scenarios. © 2013 CEH/Crown and John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

The extreme diversity of uranium deposits

Most available classifications of uranium deposits are based on the characteristics of the host rocks or on the morphology of the ore deposits. The aim of the present paper is to propose the basis for a genetic classification of these deposits. After a short introduction on the geochemical behavior of uranium in fluids and silicate melts and on the main uranium fractionation mechanisms operating in uranium-rich peraluminous, metaluminous, and peralkaline melts, the most recent metallogenic models of the main types of uranium deposits are shortly reviewed.     

In-well time-of-travel approach to evaluate optimal purge duration during low-flow sampling of monitoring wells

A common assumption with groundwater sampling is that low (<0.5 L/min) pumping rates during well purging and sampling captures primarily lateral flow from the formation through the well-screened interval at a depth coincident with the pump intake. However, if the intake is adjacent to a low hydraulic conductivity part of the screened formation, this scenario will induce vertical groundwater flow to the pump intake from parts of the screened interval with high hydraulic conductivity. Because less formation water will initially be captured during pumping, a substantial volume of water already in the well (preexisting screen water or screen storage) will be captured during this initial time until inflow from the high hydraulic conductivity part of the screened formation can travel vertically in the well to the pump intake. Therefore, the length of the time needed for adequate purging prior to sample collection (called optimal purge duration) is controlled by the in-well, vertical travel times. A preliminary, simple analytical model was used to provide information on the relation between purge duration and capture of formation water for different gross levels of heterogeneity (contrast between low and high hydraulic conductivity layers). The model was then used to compare these time–volume relations to purge data (pumping rates and drawdown) collected at several representative monitoring wells from multiple sites. Results showed that computation of time-dependent capture of formation water (as opposed to capture of preexisting screen water), which were based on vertical travel times in the well, compares favorably with the time required to achieve field parameter stabilization. If field parameter stabilization is an indicator of arrival time of formation water, which has been postulated, then in-well, vertical flow may be an important factor at wells where low-flow sampling is the sample method of choice.     

Magnetotelluric study of the Xuefeng mountain area,Hu’nan Province,China

A magnetotelluric study was carried out in the Xuefeng mountain uplift belt and its western margins. A detailed investigation was made of the resistivity of the formations, and reliable data were obtained. The sedimentary cover and basement structure of the Xuefeng mountain area and the deep geological structure were analyzed in detail using magnetotelluric data from the two-dimensional inversion of the resistivity profile data in combination with regional gravity and magnetic data. It was concluded that the tectonic movements were characterized by basement detachment, and north-south ramp. The study area can be divided into a southern uplift zone, a southern thrust-faulted zone, a central uplift zone, and a northern depression zone. This work has provided geophysical evidence that can be used in future studies of the tectonics and petroleum geology of this region.     

Observability of Single Neutron Stars at SRG/eROSITA

Astronomy Reports - A four-year sky survey with the use of the eROSITA telescope on board the Spektr-RG observatory with focusing optics will provide the best coverage in the soft (0.5–2 keV)...     

Coral reef ecosystems protect shore from high-energy waves under climate change scenarios

Coral reefs and other coastal ecosystems such as seagrasses and mangroves are widely recognized to provide protection against the devastating effects of strong waves associated with tsunamis and storms. The predicted warming climate brings to fore the role of these ecosystems in providing protection against stronger typhoons that can result in more devastating waves of greater amplitude. We performed a model simulation of storm generated waves on a Philippine reef, which is located along the path of tropical storms, i.e., at least 10 typhoons on the average pass through the study site yearly. A model to simulate wave propagation was developed using Simulating Waves Nearshore (SWAN) and DELFT3D-WAVE computer simulation software. Scenarios involving local monsoonal wind forcing and storm conditions were simulated. In addition, as climate change may also result to increased relative sea level, a 0.3 m and 1 m rise in sea level scenarios were also used in the wave model simulations. Results showed that the extensive reef system in the site helped dissipate wave energy that in turn reduced wave run-up on land. A significant reduction in wave energy was observed in both climate change, i.e., stronger wind and higher sea level, and non-climate change scenarios. This present study was conducted in a reef whose coral cover is in excellent condition (i.e., 50 to 80% coral cover). Estimates of coral reef growth are in the same order of magnitude as estimates of relative sea level rise based on tide gauge and satellite altimeter data, thus it is possible that the role of reefs in attenuating wave energy may be maintained if coral reef growth can keep up with the change in sea level. Nonetheless, to maintain reef growth, it is imperative to manage coral reef ecosystems sustainably and to eliminate the stressors that are within human control. Minimizing activities such as illegal and destructive blast and poison fishing methods, pollution and siltation, is crucial to minimize the impacts of high-energy waves that may increase with climate change.     

Botswana gravity reference net

Gravity reference stations for the National Gravity Survey of Botswana have been established at twenty-three sites throughout the country in a net linked to existing bases in South Africa, Kenya and Zambia with an internal accuracy of better than 0.5 gravity units (one gravity unit, gu, equals an acceleration of 10⁻⁶ m.s⁻²). The field procedure and reduction of data are explained and a list is given of the gravity values.     

Upgrading the GT-2A aerogravimetric complex for airborne gravity measurements in the Arctic

The methodical solutions for improving the GT-2A aerogravimetric complexes by incorporating the Javad Quattro-G3D GPS receiver connected to four antennas spaced in two orthogonal planes are discussed. The operation features of the advanced aerogravimetric complex are described and the results of its application during the testing flight to 78° N latitude are presented. The anomalous gravity obtained in the testing flight is compared with the EGM2008 and EIGEN-6C models.