Model estimates for the mean gas exchange between the ocean and the atmosphere under the conditions of the present-day climate and its changes expected in the 21st century

Annual mean fluxes of CO₂ and oxygen across the sea surface are estimated with the use of numerical modeling for several regions located in the Gulf Stream and Kuroshio zones. The present-day climatic conditions and the climatic conditions expected in the middle and at the end of the 21st century are considered. Specific features of gas exchange under a strong wind that are associated with gas exchange by bubbles and with changes in the air-water difference of the gas concentrations were taken into account in the calculations. The estimates obtained differ substantially from the results based on the traditional approach, which disregards the above features. A considerable increase in the absorption of CO₂ by the ocean, which is mainly caused by the continuing increase in the CO₂ concentration in the air during its small changes in the ocean, is expected in the 21st century. At the same time, no trends are revealed in the annual mean fluxes of oxygen across the ocean surface. The conclusion is made that, in calculations of CO₂ absorption by the world ocean, it is necessary to take into account both specific features of gas transfer under a strong wind and an increase in the atmospheric concentration of CO₂.     

Basement structure and sedimentary cover seismostratigraphy in the northern part of the Japan Basin in the region of the Tarasov Rise (Sea of Japan)

The results of continuous seismic profiling thermodynamics performed in the northern part of the Japan Basin in the region of the Tarasov Rise and the data of a micropaleontological examination of the diatom remains encountered in the sediment samples from the rise and continental slope are presented. In the area studied, the topography of the acoustic basement features a vast rise (plateau) buried under the sedimentary cover outlined by the depth contour 5.8 s. The plateau has a relatively smooth top surface crossed by a series of rises of the acoustic basement. The two largest rises are represented by the ridges of the Tarasov Rise. The plateau is separated from the continental slope by a depression in the acoustic basement with a depth up to 6.8 s. From the end of the Middle Miocene up to the beginning of the Paleocene, the region of the plateau represented an area of active volcanism; it coincided in time with the stage of subsidence of the floor of the acoustic basement depression. At the end of the Late Miocene, the ridges of the Tarasov Rise started to sink. In the Pliocene, this process accelerated, and, at the beginning of the Pleistocene, it stopped. In the Middle Miocene-Early Pleistocene time, the portion of the continental slope adjacent to the plateau remained stable and suffered no significant vertical movements.     

Tropospheric lapse rate and its relation to surface temperature from reanalysis data

Estimates of the tropospheric lapse rate γ and analysis of its relation to the surface temperature T _s in the annual cycle and interannual variability have been made using the global monthly mean data of the NCEP/NCAR reanalysis (1948–2001). The tropospheric lapse rate γ is about 6.1 K/km in the Northern Hemisphere (NH) as a whole and over the ocean and about 6.2 K/km over the continents. The value of γ decreases from 6.5 K/km at low latitudes to 4.5 K/km at polar latitudes. The values of dγ/dT _s, the parameter of sensitivity of γ to the variation of T _s for the NH in the interannual variability, are found to be about 0.04 km^?1 (0.041 km^?1 for the NH as a whole, 0.042 km^?1 over the ocean, and 0.038 km^?1 over the continents). This corresponds to an increase in γ of approximately 0.7% when the surface temperature of the NH is increased by 1 K. Estimates of dγ/dT _s vary from about 0.05 km^?1 in the subtropics to 0.10 km^?1 at polar latitudes. When dγ/dT _s is positive, the surface and tropospheric warming means a temperature decrease above a certain critical level H _cr. The height of the level H _cr with constant temperature, which is defined by the inverse value (dγ/dT _s)^?1, is about 25 km for the NH as a whole, i.e., above the tropopause. In the subtropics, H _cr is about 20 km. At polar latitudes, H _cr decreases to about 10 km. Positive values of dγ/dT _s characterize a positive climatic feedback through the lapse rate and indicate a general decrease in the static stability of the troposphere during global warming. Along with a general tendency of γ to increase with rising T _s, there are regional regimes with the opposite tendency, mainly over the ocean. The negative correlation of γ with T _s is found over the oceanic tropics and midlatitudes, in particular, over the oceanic belt around Antarctica.     

The buckling of plastic oblate hemi-ellipsoidal dome shells under external hydrostatic pressure

The paper presents a theoretical and an experimental investigation into the buckling of seven oblate hemi-ellipsoidal dome shells under external hydrostatic pressure. Four of the shells were made in glass reinforced plastic and three were made from a thermosetting plastic called solid urethane plastic. All the vessels were tested to destruction. The theoretical study was made with the aid of a non-linear finite element solution, where both geometrical and material non-linearity were allowed for. Good agreement was found between experiment and theory for all the vessels. The very oblate domes failed axisymmetrically. Theoretical convergence was good for the more oblate domes but it was not as good as for the less oblate domes. This may have been because the less oblate domes did not fail in a classical axisymmetric manner as was expected. This work is of much importance in ocean engineering.     

The mixing efficiency and the processes of restratification in a stably stratified medium

The mechanism of the effect of a collapsing turbulent eddy on diapycnal transport in a stably stratified fluid is considered. It is shown that at small Richardson turbulent numbersRi ₀ the mixing efficiency increases asRi ₀, and at large numbers it decreases in proportion toRi ₀ ^–1/2 .Translated by Mikhail M. Trufanov. UDK 551.465.15.     

Analysis of correlations between time series with the use of the phase spectrum

In connection with the problem of revealing cause-effect relations among different climatic characteristics, methods for determining the dependence between time series on the basis of selected auto-and cross-covariance functions and periodograms expressed in terms of the Fourier coefficients of the initial series are discussed. Real time series do not always satisfy the conditions of statistical stationarity, so that their analysis requires a combination of statistical and deterministic approaches. The possibility of using the above numerical characteristics in relation to such series is considered. Characteristic features of describing finite segments of time series with the use of their Fourier coefficients is studied in detail. The main emphasis is on the determination of the time shifts (delays) at which the covariance between the series is maximal. The problems that appear during a practical implementation of the periodogram method for shift estimation are discussed. A previously unknown formula that is necessary for further studies and relates the Fourier transform of a selected correlation function to the periodogram of the series is derived.     

Water vapor in the atmosphere over the northern Tien Shan

Refined data of systematic measurements of total water vapor in the atmosphere from May 1980 to April 2005 are presented. The data were obtained at the Issyk Kul atmospheric-monitoring station by the method of solar molecular-absorption spectroscopy. Over 25 years, the annual mean water-vapor content in the atmosphere increased by 4.5% at a mean rate of increase of 0.18% per year. However, the water-vapor content decreased in the last five years. The results of statistical processing of experimental data (general statistical characteristics, correlation coefficients, composite oscillations) are described. A refined model is proposed for forecasts of temporal variations in the monthly mean and annual mean water-vapor contents for the coming years. The model includes a linear trend and the sum of oscillations with periods close to the periods of a number of well-known geophysical phenomena. Regression equations are proposed to relate the water-vapor content in the atmospheric column to the surface temperature and absolute humidity.     

Probable gas hydrate/free gas model over western continental margin of India

Multi-channel seismic reflection data from the western continental margin of India (WCMI) have been analyzed to construct a plausible model for gas hydrate formation. A reflector at 2950 ms two way travel time (TWT) on one of the sections is interpreted to represent the base of the layer of the methane hydrate, identified by a bottom simulating reflector (BSR) that lies almost 500 ms beneath the sea floor. BSRs of similar origin are common world wide, where they are usually interpreted to mark the base of gas hydrate bearing clastic sediment, with or without underlying free gas. In this study we present a model with the contrasting physical properties that produce synthetic wavelets that match with the observed BSR amplitude and waveforms for varying source-receiver offsets of multi-channel seismic reflection data. The preliminary results presented here put important constraints on models that predict the distribution and formation of hydrate. Offset-dependent amplitude recovery also gives an appropriate response for hydrate characterization.