The implementation of Bayesian structural additive regression models in multi-city time series air pollution and human health studies

In this study, a novel Bayesian semiparametric structural additive regression (STAR) model is introduced in multi-city time series air pollution and human health studies. This modeling approach can simultaneously take into account the fixed effects, random effects, nonlinear smoothing functions and spatial functions in an integrated model framework. This study focuses on examining the powerful functionalities of this approach in modeling air pollution and mortality data of 100 U.S. cities from 1987 to 2000. Compared with previous studies, the modeling approach used in this study yields consistent findings of nation-level and city-level PM₁₀ (particulate matter less than 10?μm) effects on mortality. Notably, cities with significantly elevated mortality rates were concentrated in the Northeastern U.S. This modeling approach also emphasizes the important functionality of the spatial function in visualizing disease mapping. Model diagnostics were performed to confirm the availability of the STAR model. We also found consistent findings by using different hyperparameters in the sensitivity analysis. To sum up, the implementation of this modeling approach has achieved the goals of applying a spatial function and obtaining robust results in the multi-city time series air pollution and human health study.     

Young magmatism in Afghanistan as the consequence of the neocene-quaternary tectonic movements

A considerable portion of the territory of Afghanistan, having structures of the Mediterranean folded belt, has been subjected to a general tectonomagmatic activization over the Miocene through to the present, resulting in different (predominantly oscillating) tectonic movements, intrusive magmatism, terrestrial volcanism, mineral occurrences, and springs of carbonated and nitrous thermal water.Three types of young magmatism and volcanism products have been recognized in Afghanistan:

1. (1) Miocene alkaline granite intrusions, described as the Share—Arman Complex, resulted from the early orogenic stage of the Late Alpine geosynclinal troughs development and were restricted to transversal uplifts, in both the geosynclinal structures and on their extension, in the surrounding median masses. These transversal uplifts also play the role of mineralization-controlling structures.

2. (2) Late orogenic—Early Quaternary volcanics (the Dash-i-Nawar Complex) cropping out by the periphery of median masses and at the marginal uplifts of the Late Alpine folded area and also restricted to the transversal uplifts with the confined fault zones to them.

3. (3) Alkaline carbonatitic (the Khanneshin Complex) and trachybasaltic (the SarLogh Complex) Early—Middle Quaternary volcanics in the inner parts of the Central Afghanistan Median Mass and in the southeastern segment of the Turan Plateau.

Areas with products of Middle Quaternary volcanism are restricted to knot areas of the major subcrustal faults which are currently active.     

Correlations of natural radionuclides in sediment from Danube

The correlation between specific activities of some natural radionuclides (²³⁸U, ²²⁶Ra, ²³²Th, ⁴⁰K) measured in sediment taken from river bottom was studied. The sediment was taken from the Serbian part of the Danube River. Good correlation between some of the isotopes is observed, so that their specific activity ratios are spread over a lower range than specific activities themselves. This suggests that evaluation of specific activity ratios of some natural radionuclides could be a more sensitive method for the determination of increased levels of some of them than the straightforward analysis of specific activities.     

Differences in the emission line spectrum at maximum and minimum of the nuclear brightness of the Seyfert galaxy NGC 7469

We have compiled data on relative intensties, fluxes and profiles of emission lines of the NGC 7469 nuclear spectrum observed in the optical region by many authors during 1966–1986. The aim of our investigation is to reveal differences in the characteristics of the emission lines in maxima and minima of the nuclear brightness. The distinction was revealed for relative intensities, fluxes and profiles. During the extreme maxima profiles ofH ,H andH lines, colour indices of the nucleus and its high level of accretion rate resemble those of QSOs. On the other hand, during the deep minimum 1989 the nucleus had the properties of a Sy2 type. There is a relation between variable fluxes ofH and [OIII] 5007 Å lines which is different for the minima and maxima of the nuclear brightness. The fluxes of the [OIII] 5007 Å line during the minima of the nuclear brightness are systematically higher than those in maxima. The above mentioned peculiarities of the emission lines in the NGC 7469 nucleus can be understood in terms of the increase of electron temperature, electron density and velocities of the nuclear gas from minimum to maximum.     

Long-term seismic noise investigations on Shikotan Island: First results

In 2003–2004, long-term seismic noise observations were launched on Shikotan Island (Lesser Kuril Range) based on the “Shikotan” dormant regional seismic station. The geological and geophysical data on the registration area are reported. Information about the equipment and its technical specifications is given. The precursors to the strongest local earthquakesthat occurred in the Shikotan Island region in January 2005–March 2007 are identified.     

Redox problems in the “metallogenic specialization” of magmatic rocks and the genesis of hydrothermal ore mineralization

Considering the history and current state of the problem of the so-called metallogenic specialization of magmatic rocks, the paper places emphasis onto various aspects of the genesis of ore mineralization depending on the redox state of magmas (as a logical continuation of S. Ishihara’s works), fluids, and host rocks. These problems were inadequately poorly explored and discussed by researchers dealing with ore deposits. Various possible variants of ore-forming redox processes for different types of mineral deposits, with ore mineralization affiliated to granites (Ta, Sn, W, Mo, and Be) and mafic magmas (Au, Ag, U, Cu, Zn, Pb, As, Sb, and Hg) and, accordingly, to crustal and mantle origin, are discussed. On the basis of analyzed geological data, including those published over the past three decades, it is shown that the redox state of ore-producing magmas commonly significantly impacted not only the ore potential of magmatic complexes but also the genetic type of the ore mineralization. The redox state of the fluids predetermined the transport and precipitation speciation of metals. Influence mechanisms of hydrocarbons from sedimentary country rocks and gaseous products of their pyrolysis on ore deposition of various metals are considered. Understanding these mechanisms can be helpful for predicting the possible precipitation sites of ore mineralization of noble, radioactive, and chalcophile metals.     

On the energy spectrum of galactic primary cosmic rays: Results from the transport equation

The spectrum of galactic primary cosmic rays at relativistic monenta is calculated. The primaries are assumed to be accelerated continuously from the thermal galactic background medium by first- and second-order Fermi acceleration. We show that the observed spectrum is readily obtained from the transport equation conventionally invoked to discuss propagation and loss of cosmic rays in our Galaxy from a distribution of sources. We have previously (Lerche and Schlickeiser, 1985) shown that the observed secondary to primary ratio is satisfactorily explained by a similar use of the transport equation, allowing for secondary production from the primaries. Accordingly, when the results of this paper are added to those concerning the secondary/primary ratio behaviour, it would seem that continuous Fermi acceleration accounts, in a quantitative fashion, for the spectral behaviours observed at Earth.     

Mass motions in a heated flare filament

Energy transport in a hot flare plasma is examined with particular reference to the influence of fluid motion. On the basis of dimensional considerations the dynamical timescale of the flare plasma is shown to be comparable to the timescale for energy loss by conduction and radiation. It is argued that mass motion is likely to have a profound influence on the evolution of the flare.The detailed response of a flare filament to a localized injection of energy is then analyzed. Radiative, conductive and all dynamical terms are included in the energy equation. Apart from greatly enhancing the rate of propagation of the thermal disturbance through space, mass motion is found to be significant in transferring energy through the moving fluid.Finally the predicted thermal structure is discussed and it is concluded that the presence of mass motions in the flare may be inferred from the form of the soft X-ray differential emission measure.