Prediction of hydrological phenomena using self-organizing mathematical models

The paper considers the application of self-organizing models, specifically, the method of grouped arguments consideration (MGAC), to forecast short and non-stationary time series of observations in the ocean. A sequence of operations for the treatment of observational series is suggested. To assess its efficiency, we have used mean monthly oxygen concentration data collected in the surface and near-bottom layers of the Taganrog Bay. It is shown that the application of the MGAC model allows one to reduce by two times the root-mean-square error of that of the series prediction by five points, in comparison with the Jenkins-Box regressional model. It has been concluded that the predictors' non-linear functions may be effectively used in the treatment of short samplings. Translated by Vladimir A. Puchkin.     

The choice of a dynamico-stochastic model for ocean monitoring — A compromise between the accuracy and cost of computations

In this paper we compare, two dynamico-stochastic models (DSMs) with different hydrodynamic parts, designed to study a large-scale North Atlantic region. As a performance criterion, RMS errors (over the horizon) in density and velocity field reconstruction are used. It has been shown that in some cases it seems rational to use DSMs with simplified hydrodynamic parts. This helps to expedite the computations and to reduce the related costs without much detriment to the quality of hydrophysical field simulation.UDK 551.465.001.573(261.1).Translated by Vladimir A. Puchkin.     

Storminess and vulnerability along the Atlantic coastlines of Europe: analysis of storm records and of a greenhouse gases induced climate scenario

Identification of the distinctive circulation patterns of storminess on the Atlantic margin of Europe forms the main objective of this study; dealing with storm frequency, intensity and tracking. The climatology of the extratropical cyclones that affect this region has been examined for the period 1940–1998. Coastal meteorological data from Ireland to Spain have been linked to the cyclone history for the North Atlantic in the analysis of storm records for European coasts. The study examines the evolution in the occurrence of storms since the 1940s and also their relationship with the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO). Results indicate a seasonal shift in the wind climate, with regionally more severe winters and calmer summers established. This pattern appears to be linked to a northward displacement in the main North Atlantic cyclone track.

An experiment with the ECHAM4 A-GCM at high resolution (T106) has also been used to model the effect of a greenhouse gases induced warming climate on the climatology of coastal storms in the region. The experiment consists of (1), a 30-year control time-slice representing present-day equivalent CO₂ concentrations and (2), a 30-year perturbed period corresponding to a time when the radiative forcing has doubled in terms of equivalent CO₂ concentrations. The boundary conditions have been obtained from an atmosphere-ocean coupled OA-GCM simulation at low horizontal resolution. An algorithm was developed to allow the identification of individual cyclone movements in selected coastal zones. For most of the northern part of the study region, covering Ireland and Scotland, results describe the establishment by ca. 2060 of a tendency for fewer but more intense storms.

The impacts of these changes in storminess for the vulnerability of European Atlantic coasts are considered. For low-lying, exposed and ‘soft’ sedimentary coasts, as in Ireland, these changes in storminess are likely to result in significant localised increases in coastal erosion.     

Diet shifts of Caribbean grunts (Haemulidae) and snappers (Lutjanidae) and the relation with nursery-to-coral reef migrations

The spatial size distribution of grunts and snappers have previously indicated the separation of juveniles in nursery habitats from the adults on the coral reef. This implies life cycle migrations from nursery habitats (such as seagrass beds and mangroves) to the coral reef. If diet shifts are related to such migrations, then the diets of these fish must change before or around the fish size at which such migrations take place. A wide size range of juveniles of two grunt species (Haemulon sciurus and Haemulon flavolineatum) and of two snapper species (Lutjanus apodus and Ocyurus chrysurus) were caught in seagrass beds and mangroves, and their gut contents identified and quantified. Regression analysis between fish size and dietary importance of small crustaceans showed a negative relationship in all four species. Positive relations were found for H. sciurus, L. apodus and O. chrysurus between fish length and the dietary importance of decapods, and for L. apodusand O. chrysurus between fish length and prey fish importance. Critical changes in the fish diets with fish size were examined by application of a Canonical Correspondence Analysis (CCA). The CCA yielded three clusters of size-classes of fishes with similar diets, and application of a Mantel test showed that each of these clusters had significantly different diets, and that each cluster diet was significantly specialised. The size at which a fish species ‘switched’ from one cluster to another was compared with size-at-maturity data and with the typical size at which these species migrate from the nursery habitats to the coral reef. H. sciurus and H. flavolineatum may be prompted to migrate from the nursery habitats to coral reef habitats because of dietary changes, or because of the development of the gonads. For L. apodus and O. chrysurus, a dietary changeover forms a more likely explanation for nursery-to-reef migrations than does sexual maturation because these species reach maturity at sizes much larger than the maximum size of individuals found in nursery habitats. Although other factors may theoretically initiate or promote the migration patterns, the results of this study indicate that ontogenetic dietary changes may crucially influence the nursery-to-coral reef migrations of these reef fish species.     

Mean current velocity measurement from a movable base

This paper discusses the possibility of measurement of the current velocity vector characteristics averaged over the time of continuous regular down-up probings from a moving carrier. The measurements can be carried out either from a moving vessel or from a helicopter, floating on or hovering above the sea surface. As an illustration for the suggested technique,in situ observations compiled by a free-component (±XYZ) VEGA-3 probe in the Guiana current region in March 1990 are provided. Comparison of the results with buoy data shows good agreement within the accuracy limits of the instruments employed.Translated by Vladimir A. Puchkin.     

Fine structure of the temperature field and the transfrontal exchange in the East Kamchatka current

CTD data are used to study the relationship between the temperature field fine structure and the location of the frontal zones and synoptic eddies in the region adjacent to the eastern coast of the Kamchatka peninsula. High levels of fine structure activity were observed in the frontal zone of the East Kamchatka current and in the peripheries of anticyclonic eddies. Estimates of the coefficient of the horizontal turbulent exchange and the transfrontal (lateral) heat flux are derived.Translated by Mikhail M. Trufanov.     

A general method for calculating three-dimensional laminar and turbulent boundary layers on ship hulls

A general method for representing the flow properties in the three-dimensional boundary layers around ship hulls of arbitrary shape is described. It makes use of an efficient two-point finite-diffirence schem to solve the boundary-layer equations and includes an algebraic eddy-viscosity representaion of the Reynolds-stress ternsor. The numericzal method contains novel and desirable features and allows the calculation of flows in which the circumferential velocity component contains regions of flow reversal across the boundary layer. The inviscid pressure distribution is determined with the Douglas-Neumann method which, if necessary, can conveniently allow for the boundary-layer displacement surface. To allow its application to ships, and particularly to those with double-elliptic and flat-bottomed hulls, a non-orthogonal coordinate system has been developed and is shown to be economical, precise and comparatively easy to use. Present calculations relate to zero Froude number but they can be extended to include the effects of a water wave and local regions of flow separation which may stem from bulbous-bow geometries.     

Oxidative stress in ecotoxicology: from the analysis of individual antioxidants to a more integrated approach

An integrate approach will be discussed for investigations on oxidative stress in xenobiotic toxicity. While the analysis of individual antioxidants is useful for their sensitivity and to understand the mode of action of a stressor, the integration with the analysis of the total antioxidant capacity provides a more holistic assessment of the overall biological significance of such variations. TOSC has a greater predictive value on the health condition of the organisms and allows to discriminate the different role of specific ROS in oxidative stress syndrome.     

Statistical analysis of a global photochemical model of the atmosphere

This is a study of the sensitivity of model results (atmospheric content of main gas constituents and radiative characteristics of the atmosphere) to errors in emissions of a number of atmospheric gaseous pollutants. Groups of the model variables most dependent on these errors are selected. Two variants of emissions are considered: one without their evolution and the other with their variation according to the IPCC scenario. The estimates are made on the basis of standard statistical methods for the results obtained with the detailed onedimensional radiative—photochemical model of the Main Geophysical Observatory (MGO). Some approaches to such estimations with models of higher complexity and to the solution of the inverse problem (i.e., the estimation of the necessary accuracy of external model parameters for obtaining the given accuracy of model results) are outlined.     

Primary production and plankton stocks in the Pacific Ocean and their seasonal variation according to remote sensing and field observations

Data collected from 20 years of observations by the P. P. Shirshov Institute of Oceanology (about 250 comprehensive ecosystem stations) are summarized to evaluate the primary production and biomass of the principal groups of plankton in the Pacific Ocean. The stations were classified into geographical regions according to satellite determined criteria. The areas of these regions were evaluated according to CZCS data from 1978 to 1986. The total value of primary production was evaluated as 26·9 Gt C year⁻¹. Taking the “bottle effect” correction into account, this value may be as high as 45.6 Gt C year⁻¹. Total biomass values of phytoplankton (134 Mt C), bacteria (86 Mt C), protozoa (26 Mt C) and mesoplankton (184 Mt C) were also calculated. Seasonal variabilities of all these values were remarkably insignificant.