Generation of a stochastic precipitation model for the tropical climate

Theoretical and Applied Climatology - A tropical country like Malaysia is characterized by intense localized precipitation with temperatures remaining relatively constant throughout the year. A...     

Scenario Reduction Applied to Geostatistical Simulations

Having a large number of geostatistical simulations of a mineral or petroleum deposit provides a better idea of its upside potential and downside risk; however, large numbers of simulated realizations of a deposit may pose computational difficulties in subsequent decision-making phases. Hence, depending on the specific case, there can be a need to select a representative subset of conditionally simulated deposit realizations. This paper examines and extends an approach developed by the stochastic optimization community based on stochastic mathematical programming with recourse and is discussed here in the context of mineral deposits while it is possibly suitable for other earth science applications. The approach is based on measuring the “distance” between simulations and the introduced distance measure between simulated realizations of a mineral deposit is based on the metal above a given set of cutoff grades while a pre-existing mine design is available. The approach is tested on 100 simulations of the Walker Lake data with promising results.     

Geochemistry and mineralogy of shallow alluvial aquifers in Daudkandi upazila in the Meghna flood plain, Bangladesh

The shallow alluvial aquifers of the delta plains and flood plains of Bangladesh, comprises about 70% of total land area are mostly affected by elevated concentrations of arsenic (As) in groundwater exposing a population of more than 35 million to As toxicity. Geochemical studies of shallow alluvial aquifer in the Meghna flood plain show that the uppermost yellowish grey sediment is low in As (1.03 mg/kg) compared to the lower dark grey to black sediment (5.24 mg/kg) rich in mica and organic matter. Sequential extraction data show that solid phase As bound to poorly crystalline and amorphous metal (Fe, Mn, Al)-oxyhydroxides is dominant in the grey to dark grey sediment and reaches its maximum level (3.05 mg/kg) in the mica rich layers. Amount of As bound to sulphides and organic matter also peaks in the dark grey to black sediment. Vertical distributions of major elements determined by X-ray fluorescence (XRF) show that iron (Fe₂O₃), aluminum (Al₂O₃) and manganese (MnO) follow the general trend of distribution of As in the sediments. Concentrations of As, Mn, Fe, HCO₃ ⁻, SO₄ ²⁻ and NO₃ ⁻ in groundwater reflect the redox status of the aquifer and are consistent with solid phase geochemistry. Mineralogical analysis by X-ray diffraction (XRD) and scanning electron microscopy (SEM) fitted with energy dispersive X-ray spectrometer (EDS) revealed dominance of crystalline iron oxides and hydroxides like magnetite, hematite and goethite in the oxidised yellowish grey sediment. Amorphous Fe-oxyhydroxides identified as grain coating in the mica and organic matter rich sediment suggests weathering of biotite is playing a critical role as the source of Fe(III)-oxyhydroxides which in turn act as sink for As. Presence of authigenic pyrite in the dark grey sediment indicates active reduction in the aquifer.     

A New Equation for the Shear Strength of Cable Bolts Incorporating the Energy Balance Theory

The application of cable bolts as a secondary support system is an increasing trend in underground coal mines worldwide. The performances of cable bolts have been evaluated under both axial and shear loading conditions. Two methods of testing cables for shear, single and double shear, have been recognised. This paper examines the shear behaviour of a variety of cable bolts under different pre-tension loads by double shear testing. Plain, spiral and the combination of both cable types were used in this study. The initial axial load and the type of cable bolts are the main factors affecting their shear strength. By increasing the axial pre-tension load, the peak shear load occurs at lower shear displacement. The failure angle due to cable bending across the joint at different pre-tension loads varied between 41° and 49°. This demonstrates that the ratio of axial and perpendicular displacements is almost constant and on average the failure occurs at about 45°. A novel analytical model is proposed to evaluate the shear behaviour of pre-tensioned fully grouted cable bolts subjected to double shearing. Energy and Fourier Series methods were incorporated in the model to simulate the shear behaviour of cable bolts. The comparison of the experimental results with the proposed model shows a good agreement.     

Multi-criteria decision-making analysis in selecting suitable plotting positions for IDF curves of storm events

Selecting suitable distributions for rainfall data is usually subjective and complex since it requires decision-makers to consider results from various measures of goodness-of-fit indices. In this study, the VIKOR method in multi-criteria decision-making analysis is modified to select the most suitable plotting positions to represent extreme storm intensities in order to build the intensity–duration–frequency (IDF) curves of storm events. This is done by considering the rankings provided by all goodness-of-fit indices used to obtain a compromise solution. Nine plotting positions are considered: Weibull (W), Adamowski (A), Gringorten (G), Hazen (H) and Gumbel (EV I) and two known plotting positions for generalized extreme value (GEV) distribution using Pearson’s skewness and another two using L-skewness. The IDF curves obtained are compared to a reference IDF curves which was found using the GEV distribution. The mean and median for three goodness-of-fit indices, the coefficient of variation of root mean square error, CV_RMSE, the mean percentage of difference, Δ, and the coefficient of determination, R ², are taken as the criteria for selection process. The results show that six plotting positions, A, H, W, G and the two plotting positions with L-skewness, are equally superior compared to the other three plotting positions.     

Comparison of arsenic concentrations in simultaneously-collected groundwater and aquifer particles from Bangladesh,India, Vietnam,and Nepal

One of the reasons the processes resulting in As release to groundwater in southern Asia remain poorly understood is the high degree of spatial variability of physical and chemical properties in shallow aquifers. In an attempt to overcome this difficulty, a simple device that collects groundwater and sediment as a slurry from precisely the same interval was developed in Bangladesh. Recently published results from Bangladesh and India relying on the needle-sampler are augmented here with new data from 37 intervals of grey aquifer material of likely Holocene age in Vietnam and Nepal. A total of 145 samples of filtered groundwater ranging in depth from 3 to 36 m that were analyzed for As (1–1000 μg/L), Fe (0.01–40 mg/L), Mn (0.2–4 mg/L) and S (0.04–14 mg/L) are compared. The P-extractable (0.01–36 mg/kg) and HCl-extractable As (0.04–36 mg/kg) content of the particulate phase was determined in the same suite of samples, in addition to Fe(II)/Fe ratios (0.2–1.0) in the acid-leachable fraction of the particulate phase. Needle-sampler data from Bangladesh indicated a relationship between dissolved As in groundwater and P-extractable As in the particulate phase that was interpreted as an indication of adsorptive equilibrium, under sufficiently reducing conditions, across 3 orders of magnitude in concentrations according to a distribution coefficient of 4 mL/g. The more recent observations from India, Vietnam and Nepal show groundwater As concentrations that are often an order of magnitude lower at a given level of P-extractable As compared to Bangladesh, even if only the subset of particularly reducing intervals characterized by leachable Fe(II)/Fe >0.5 and dissolved Fe >0.2 mg/L are considered. Without attempting to explain why As appears to be particularly mobile in reducing aquifers of Bangladesh compared to the other regions, the consequences of increasing the distribution coefficient for As between the particulate and dissolved phase to 40 mL/g for the flushing of shallow aquifers of their initial As content are explored.