天津电力人体舒适度预报模型

为做好天津电力气象服务工作,提供符合电力负荷预测需求的人体舒适度预报产品,本文根据国内外多种人体舒适度预报模型,利用2002—2005年夏季天津逐日电力负荷数据和气象数据,计算天津市逐日平均人体舒适度,详细分析各模型计算结果与平均气温和气象负荷的对应关系。结果发现,UTCI模型、吕伟林室外预报模型和李源模型计算的人体舒适度更符合天津市人体舒适度感觉,且与电力气象负荷的线性相关性较好。鉴于吕伟林模型在我国应用较广,本文采用最小二乘法对吕伟林室外预报模型进行拟合订正,建立出符合天津市电力气象服务需求的人体舒适度预报模型。     

21层大气环流模式IAP AGCM-III的设计及气候数值模拟I.动力框架

设计了IAP (InstituteofAtmosphericPhysics,ChineseAcademyofSciences)AGCM III,对其动力框架作说明和检验 ,时间积分采用改进的非线性迭代法。用Rossby Haurwitz波对框架进行了波型检验、能量检验和波速检验。结果表明 ,非线性迭代 3次的时间积分方案具有较好的稳定性 ,能够有效地抑制短波 ,同时对长波的歪曲较小 ,且时间积分步长可放得较大 ;该框架能够较长时间地保持Rossby Haurwitz 4波波型 ,在积分过程中能够较高精度地保持总有效能量守恒 ;模式计算的Rossby Haurwitz波速为每天西传 1 5个经度 ,这与理伦值很接近。     

CINRAD/CD天气雷达因-600伏电源引起的回波异常故障排查

通过接收机放电管-600伏电源软故障引起的CINRAD/CD天气雷达回波信噪比低,回波异常故障的分析,找到故障产生的原因,提出相应应急处理方法。     

THE CHARACTERS OF ENERGY BUDGET ON THE GOBI AND DESERT SURFACE IN HEXI REGION*

In the paper,the characters of surface energy budget on Huayin(Gobi)and the desert surface during the period from 26 June to 31 August 1990 in the HEIFE have been analyzed,then have been compared with the observed results during 4-19 September 1988 in the Pilot Observation Period of the HEIFE.The results show that the atmosphere is in superadiabatic unstable state and there is a phenomenon of inverse humidity to form negative water vapour flux.The sensible heat flux on the surface energy budget is in majority,but the latent heat flux may be neglected over the Gobi and desert surface in the cloudless daytime in the summer.     

Erratum to: Understanding and building upon pioneering work of Nobel Prize in Physics 2021 laureates Syukuro Manabe and Klaus Hasselmann: From greenhouse effect to Earth system science and beyond

Science China Earth Sciences -     

电离层对台风响应的全过程的特例研究

作为特例研究,本文对1988年和1990年两次强台风影响期间的电离层多普勒记录及相应的台风资料进行了细致的相关分析,目的是利用多普勒记录的连续性优点来了解电离层对登陆（或近海）强台风通过声重波响应的演化全过程.分析表明,在这两次台风影响期间,电离层形态中除有明显的波状扰动（中尺度声重波）出现外,还有一些值得注意的新现象：波动的时间演化表现出明显的幅度逐渐增加以及频率由高频向低频转变,在振幅很大的情况下日落后同时出现扩展F（Spread-F）现象,显示了声重波在激发电离层不规则结构方面的种子作用.这一演化过程与电离层中TIDs的线性传播理论一致,文中开展了对这一现象的非线性数值模拟,模拟结果基本上也与上述观测现象相吻合.     

Comparison of the effects of soil moisture and El Niño on summer precipitation in eastern China

Science China Earth Sciences - The effects of spring soil moisture over the vast region from the lower and middle reaches of the Yangtze River valley to North China (YRNC) and El Niño on the...     

A Comparison of Modified Fuzzy Weights of Evidence,Fuzzy Weights of Evidence,and Logistic Regression for Mapping Mineral Prospectivity

Weights of evidence and logistic regression are two of the most popular methods for mapping mineral prospectivity. The logistic regression model always produces unbiased estimates, whether or not the evidence variables are conditionally independent with respect to the target variable, while the weights of evidence model features an easy to explain and implement modeling process. It has been shown that there exists a model combining weights of evidence and logistic regression that has both of these advantages. In this study, three models consisting of modified fuzzy weights of evidence, fuzzy weights of evidence, and logistic regression are compared with each other for mapping mineral prospectivity. The modified fuzzy weights of the evidence model retains the advantages of both the fuzzy weights of the evidence model and the logistic regression model; the advantages being (1) the predicted number of deposits estimated by the modified fuzzy weights of evidence model is nearly equal to that of the logistic regression model, and (2) it can deal with missing data. This method is shown to be an effective tool for mapping iron prospectivity in Fujian Province, China.     

Coastal Wetlands of China: Changes from the 1970s to 2007 Based on a New Wetland Classification System

A new classification of coastal wetlands along the coast of China has been generated that is compatible with the Ramsar Convention of 1971. The coastal wetlands have been divided into two broad categories with overall nine subcategories. On this basis, a series of coastal wetland maps, together covering the coast of mainland China, have been produced based on topographic maps acquired in the 1970s and satellite images acquired in 2007. These document substantial wetland losses over this period. In the 1970s, the total coastal wetland area in China was 5.76?×?10⁴?km², whereas in 2007, it was 5.36?×?10⁴?km², indicating a loss of 7 %. Over this approximately 40-year period, the area of natural coastal wetlands decreased from 5.74?×?10⁴ to 5.09?×?10⁴?km², while that of artificial coastal wetlands increased from 240 to 2,740 km². Due to shoreline and sea-level changes, newly formed coastal wetlands amounted to 2,460 km², while coastal wetland loss amounted to 6,310 km² in the period from the 1970s to 2007. When excluding shallow coastal waters (depths between 0 and ?5 m), nearly 16 % of Chinese coastal wetlands have been lost between the 1970s and 2007.     

Development mechanism for the landslide at Xinlu Village,Chongqing, China

Due to the continuous and intense rainfall from June 26 to 28, 2016, Xinlu Village in Ganshui Town, Qijiang District, Chongqing, experienced a unitary-slip landslide at approximately UTC+8 19:30 on June 28. This landslide disrupted the Chuan-Qian railway and damaged four residential buildings. To analyze and rehabilitate the landslide, the engineering geology, hydrological conditions, and deformation instability mechanism of this landslide were investigated and comprehensively analyzed based on an in situ survey, geophysical drilling, and a laboratory quick-shearing test. The results show that the landslide is a typical gradual progressive landslide.