亚洲季风环流在20世纪70年代末之后的减弱(英文)

全球大气环流自２０世纪７０年代末之后的转变可以很清楚地在大气温度、风场等的变化上得到发现。子波分析的结果证实这次转变的时间尺度在２０年以上。本文的研究着重揭示：在对流层中层，亚洲中纬度区域的转变趋势同全球平均的转变趋势相反；更重要的是，在这次转变之后亚洲和非洲的季风环流变弱了，同时热带东太平洋区的贸易风环流也变弱了。而在降水的变化中也可以发现这次转变。     

湘西北地区五峰-龙马溪组页岩物质组成特征与页岩气潜力分析

为了研究湘西北龙山-永顺地区上奥陶统五峰组-下志留统龙马溪组页岩气资源勘探潜力,利用野外典型露头地质剖面资料,通过对典型剖面页岩样品的系统观测、采样、利用有机地球化学和矿物组成特征研究,评价研究区目标地层页岩的成烃成藏物质基础。研究结果表明,研究区五峰-龙马溪组黑色泥页岩普遍具有有机碳含量高、残留可溶有机质氯仿沥青"A"低、生烃潜能S₁+S₂指数略低。分子生物标志化合物分析显示,正构烷烃无明显奇偶优势,受一定程度的微生物降解影响,多表现为双峰型（C₁₈/C₂₅）,∑C₂₁-/∑C₂₂₊值为0.45~1.11,显示轻烃组分缺失,重烃组分占绝对优势;Pr/Ph值范围在0.27~0.44,具有植烷优势,显示原始有机质发育于较强还原沉积环境。烃源岩样品饱和烃组成相对丰度五环三萜烷 > 三环萜烷 > 四环萜烷,三环萜烷中C₂₁、C₂₃、C₂₄呈倒V字形分布,Ts/Tm为0.39~0.66。C₂₇规则甾烷含量略大于C₂₉规则甾烷,显示沉积母质以浮游生物及海洋型自养菌为主,亦含有部分藻类为主的有机质输入。镜质组反射率Ro均在2.57%~3.01%,普遍小于3%,已经达到了过成熟阶段。全岩矿物组成成分分析显示,页岩中脆性矿物为主要组成成分,其次为黏土矿物。综合页岩有机和无机物质组成分析结果,提出研究区湘西北五峰-龙马溪组页岩具备页岩气成烃成藏的物质条件基础,有机质含量高、热演化程度适中、脆性和吸附性较好,为深入开展页岩气勘探目标区优选奠定了工作基础。     

Monthly Variations of Atmospheric Circulations Associated with Haze Pollution in the Yangtze River Delta and North China

Haze pollution in early winter(December and January) in the Yangtze River Delta(YRD) and in North China(NC)are both severe;however, their monthly variations are significantly different. In this study, the dominant large-scale atmospheric circulations and local meteorological conditions were investigated and compared over the YRD and NC in each month. Results showed that the YRD(NC) is dominated by the so-called Scandinavia(East Atlantic/West Russia)pattern in December, and these circulations weaken in January. The East Asian December and January monsoons over the YRD and NC have negative correlations with the number of haze days. The local descending motion facilitates less removal of haze pollution over the YRD, while the local ascending motion facilitates less removal of haze pollution over NC in January, despite a weaker relationship in December. Additionally, the monthly variations of atmospheric circulations showed that adverse meteorological conditions restrict the vertical(horizontal) dispersion of haze pollution in December(January) over the YRD, while the associated local weather conditions are similar in these two months over NC.     

Subseasonal Reversal of East Asian Surface Temperature Variability in Winter 2014/15

Although there has been a considerable amount of research conducted on the East Asian winter-mean climate, subseasonal surface air temperature(SAT) variability reversals in the early and late winter remain poorly understood. In this study,we focused on the recent winter of 2014/15, in which warmer anomalies dominated in January and February but colder conditions prevailed in December. Moreover, Arctic sea-ice cover(ASIC) in September–October 2014 was lower than normal,and warmer sea surface temperature(SST) anomalies occurred in the Ni ?no4 region in winter, together with a positive Pacific Decadal Oscillation(PDO|+) phase. Using observational data and CMIP5 historical simulations, we investigated the PDO|+ phase modulation upon the winter warm Ni ?no4 phase(autumn ASIC reduction) influence on the subseasonal SAT variability of East Asian winter. The results show that, under a PDO|+ phase modulation, warm Ni ?no4 SST anomalies are associated with a subseasonal delay of tropical surface heating and subsequent Hadley cell and Ferrel cell intensification in January–February, linking the tropical and midlatitude regions. Consistently, the East Asian jet stream(EAJS) is significantly decelerated in January–February and hence promotes the warm anomalies over East Asia. Under the PDO|+ phase,the decrease in ASIC is related to cold SST anomalies in the western North Pacific, which increase the meridional temperature gradient and generate an accelerated and westward-shifted EAJS in December. The westward extension of the EAJS is responsible for the eastward-propagating Rossby waves triggered by declining ASIC and thereby favors the connection between ASIC and cold conditions over East Asia.     

Recent Researches on the Short-Term Climate Prediction at IAP－A Brief Review

Studies on the seasonal to extraseasonal climate prediction at the Institute of Atmospheric Physics (IAP) in recent years were reviewed. The first short-term climate prediction experiment was carried out based on the atmospheric general circulation model (AGCM) coupled to a tropical Pacific oceanic general circulation model (OGCM). In 1997, an ENSO prediction system including an oceanic initialization scheme was set up. At the same time, researches on the SST-induced climate predictability over East Asia were made. Based on the biennial signal in the interannual climate variability, an effective method was proposed for correcting the model predicted results recently. In order to consider the impacts of the initial soil mois ture anomalies, an empirical scheme was designed to compute the soil moisture by use of the atmospheric quantities like temperature, precipitation, and so on. Sets of prediction experiments were carried out to study the impacts of SST and the initial atmospheric conditions on the flood occurring over China in 1998.     

唐山地震前地震活动模糊熵值的异常特征

定义了地震活动模糊熵概念，计算了唐山地震前地震活动模糊熵随时间，空间的变化，发现唐山Ｍｓ７．８地震发生前，地震活动模糊熵值下降，唐山Ｍｓ７．８地震发生在地震活动模糊熵值较低的地方，这符合大地震前震源区地震活动从无序趋向有序的规律，地震活动模糊熵反模糊因子与震群活动熵统一起来，比震群活动熵更突出地反映地震活动异常。     

冰期气候的数值模拟

应用CLIMAP重建的18000年以前的地表条件,作者用大气所两层大气环流模式模拟了冰极盛期7月份的气候。结果表明:全球气温明显低于模拟的现在7月份的气温,降水和总云量减少了,海平面气压升高了,而这些变化尤其是气温的变化以北半球高纬陆地区域和南极区为甚;CO_2含量改变到现代值以后,引起的气候反响很小,说明必须用联合模式来研究。作者还指出,冰期边条件引起的气候反响与CO_2含量加倍引起的气候反响有某种一致,这对我们理解气候系统如何响应外界的强迫是一个启发。     

The seasonal climatic simulation of 9000 years before present by using the IAP atmospheric general circulation model

The seasonal cycle of the climate of 9000 years before present was simulated with the IAP two-level atmospheric general circulation model. The incoming solar radiation was specified from the orbital parameters for 9000 years Ago. The boundary conditions of that time were prescribed to the present value because of the small differences between the two. The change in radiation makes temperature to be higher in summer and lower in winter over large areas of the land; and the increased temperature contrast between the land and the ocean strengthens the summer monsoon circulation and increases the precipitation over there. The asymmetry of temperature change between the Northern Hemisphere and the Southern Hemisphere and between summer and winter still exists, which agrees with that get from the previous perpetual experiments.     

Variability in latent heat flux over the tropical pacific in association with recent two ENSO events

This paper analyzed the variations of latent heat flux (LHF) over the tropical Pacific in the period 1978-1988 by using COADS (Comprehensive Ocean and Atmospheric Data Set). It has been founded that the interannual variabili ty of LHF exhibits strong ENSO signal, with the significant increasing LHF during the recent two warm events, i.e., 1982 / 83 and 1986 / 87 and decreasing LHF in the cold episodes. However the longitudinal distribution of the LHF departures varies from event to event. In the eastern Pacific, the specific humidity difference at air-sea interface (qs -qa) makes a dominant contribution to the interannual variability of LHF ( r = 0.73 ), while in the western Pacific the surface wind speed, W and the qs - qa make nearly equal contribution to that of LHF.