Greenland Ice Sheet Contribution to Future Global Sea Level Rise based on CMIP5 Models简

Sea level rise （SLR） is one of the major socioeconomic risks associated with global warming. Mass losses from the Greenland ice sheet （GrIS） will be partially responsible for future SLR, although there are large uncertainties in modeled climate and ice sheet behavior. We used the ice sheet model SICOPOLIS （Simulation COde for POLythermal Ice Sheets） driven by climate projections from 20 models in the fifth phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project （CMIP5） to estimate the GrlS contribution to global SLR. Based on the outputs of the 20 models, it is estimated that the GrIS will contribute 0-16 （0-27） cm to global SLR by 2100 under the Representative Concentration Pathways （RCP） 4.5 （RCP 8.5） scenarios. The projected SLR increases further to 7-22 （7-33） cm with 2~basal sliding included. In response to the results of the multimodel ensemble mean, the ice sheet model projects a global SLR of 3 cm and 7 cm （10 cm and 13 cm with 2~basal sliding） under the RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 scenarios, respectively. In addition, our results suggest that the uncertainty in future sea level projection caused by the large spread in climate projections could be reduced with model-evaluation and the selective use of model outputs.     

南黄海盆地海相中—古生界构造区划

南黄海盆地属于下扬子地块海域部分,是我国海相中—古生界发育最齐全,保存相对较完整的地区之一。该区具双层基底结构及复杂的深部构造体系,经历了多旋回的盆地成生、改造及叠加过程。海相中—古生界则经历了印支、燕山、喜山等构造运动的改造,以往由于缺少深部地震资料,无法对海相中—古生界进行构造区划。通过该区沉积盆地原型的分析,结合深部地震资料的解释划分了南黄海盆地海相中—古生界的构造格局。     

云南省大理州区域性强降雨的影响系统及其特征分析

利用云南省大理州12个气象站1980~2008年29a的逐日气象观测资料及MICAPS资料,根据天气学原理,分析统计出产生大理州区域性强降雨天气的主要影响系统为切变线、西南低涡、两高辐合区、孟加拉湾风暴、南支槽和西行台风低压等,并统计出强降水过程影响系统的发生频率,在此基础上对各种影响系统进行归纳总结,提炼出产生大理州区域性强降雨影响系统的主要环流特征和预报着眼点。     

一组雷达预警指标在2013年短时强降水中的应用分析

利用一组雷达阈值指标,对2013年四川盆地发生的5次区域性暴雨过程中的短时强降雨进行检验和订正,结果表明,(1)无论针对具体的站点,还是区域面上的短时强降水,预警指标对预警短时强降水是可行的,且预警时效在0~2h内效果较佳。(2)SWAN产品中分析显示,要产生20mm/h以上的短时强降水,满足预警指标的回波需要监测到3个6min以上,通常强回波持续越长,对应的雨量也越大。(3)针对降水面上的预警准确率除2013年7月04日15时的成功预警率在57.1%左右,其余过程中预警指标对未来1h短时强降雨的预警成功率基本在80%以上,误报率基本在20%以下,在误报的站点中,SWAN拼图中回波与单站雷达探测的回波,尤其是在低仰角度上存在较大误差。     

油页岩地质类比资源评价体系的建立

松辽盆地晚白垩纪青山口组和嫩江组蕴藏着丰富的油页岩资源,已查明4处超大型中浅层油页岩矿床,盆地油页岩资源整体呈现"局部查明程度高、整体认识程度低"的特征。本文采用以地质类比法为主、统计算法为辅的统计类比法估算油页岩潜在资源量。在松辽盆地嫩江组探明的超大型矿床——吉林松南油页岩含矿区的类比刻度区内,以松辽盆地油页岩成矿富集条件为理论依据,优选出控制油页岩成矿富集的3个一级和6个派生二级地质因素来建立类比参数库,并提出"多态"定性变换原则处理类比参数。采用特征因子法确定刻度区与预测区的相似类比系数概率分布函数,并构建了油页岩资源体积丰度概率分布函数,从而利用蒙特卡罗法和组合抽样法计算不同置信水平下的油页岩潜在资源量。提出利用"高概率值波动剧烈"选取原则评价概率区间上合理的油页岩潜在资源量,把100%~85%概率区间的资源量作为松辽盆地嫩江组油页岩资源评价的合理值区间。结果显示,松辽盆地嫩江组中浅层油页岩在合理概率下的潜在资源量分别为2867.2×108 t(100%)、3356.2×108 t(95%)、3834.0×108 t(90%)、4307.7×108 t(85%),合理概率区间上的平均资源量为3591.3×108 t。验证分析表明,统计类比法对大范围低勘探程度的预测区资源估算更为准确,填补了中—低勘探盆地油页岩在资源评价方面的不足,可以为其他同类型沉积盆地的能源或矿产资源评价起到借鉴作用。     

大沽河流域地下水中稀土元素的地球化学特征

近岸地下水排泄是近海稀土元素的重要来源,目前对地下水中稀土元素的地球化学行为的认识还十分有限。本文通过现场调查和模拟计算对山东大沽河流域地下水中溶解态稀土元素的分布、影响因素及络合形态进行了研究。结果表明：稀土元素在地下水中的分布具有较大的空间差异,pH和铁锰氧化物/氢氧化物的还原性溶解是影响稀土元素含量的重要因素。稀土元素的络合形态以LnCO+3和Ln(CO3)-2为主,但是在硫酸根含量较高的情况下,轻稀土较中稀土和重稀土更易于形成LnSO+4。大沽河流域地下水表现为重稀土富集,含水层中负电荷颗粒物对LnCO+3的优先吸附可能是富集的原因。受周边炼油厂影响,所有样品中的La均表现为正异常,人为源La在地下淡水和再循环海水中所占比例分别为34%~75%和42%~57%。     

塔河油田奥陶系海西早期、加里东中期岩溶对比研究

塔河油田为我国第一个、第一大古生界海相大油田,奥陶系是最主要的层位,产量占塔河油田总产量的75%以上,海西早期、加里东中期岩溶作用对塔河油田奥陶系碳酸盐岩储层的形成和分布具有重要的控制作用。通过岩溶的平面分布、缝洞充填物类型、古生物、锶同位素、碳、氧同位素、稀土元素、包裹体、荧光等可以区分海西早期岩溶和加里东中期岩溶;海西早期岩溶古地貌起伏较大,对储层具有明显的控制作用,加里东中期岩溶古地貌总体起伏较小,对储层的控制作用不明显。海西早期岩溶主要受构造、不整合面、古地貌和岩性的控制,其中构造是最重要的因素;加里东中期岩溶主要受构造、加里东中期Ⅰ、Ⅱ幕不整合面、岩性的控制,具有明显的断控和层控特征,最后对海西早期、加里东中期岩溶有利储层分布区进行了预测。     

多序列残差辨识应用于城市“三废”排放量预测

本文把城市废水、废气、废渣排放量视作有相互联系的灰色系统,建立起城市三废排放量的多序列残差辨识预测模型,并应用于一个实例预测。     

Behavior of different phosphorus species in suspended particulate matter in the Changjiang estuary

Suspended particulate matter (SPM) collected in the Changjiang (Yangtze River) estuary in June 2006 was separated into five fractions via water elutriation: clay-very fine silt (<8 μm), fine silt (8–16 μm), medium silt (16–32 μm), coarse silt (32-63 μm) and sand (>63 μm). The SPM and fractionated particles were sequentially analyzed by a modified SEDEX sequential extraction method to obtain six species of phosphorus: exchangeable or loosely-sorbed P, organic P, Fe-bound P, authigenic P, detrital P and refractory P. The results indicated that all particulate phosphorus species except for detrital P were negatively correlated to particle size; a high detrital P content was found in coarse silt and very coarse silt. From the inside of the river mouth to the gate of the river mouth, organic P, Fe-bound P and refractory P in the suspended particles decreased and a higher amount of exchangeable P appeared around the gate of the river mouth. From the gate of the river mouth to the sea, exchangeable P and organic P in suspended particles increased distinctly. The total particulate P flux into the estuary from the Changjiang River was about 45.45×10⁸ μmol/s during sampling. Of this, about 8.27×10⁸ μmol/s was associated with the “truly suspended” fraction. The bio-available particulate P flux was about 13.58×10⁸ μmol/s. Of this, about 4.24×10⁸ μmol/s was transported by “truly suspended” particles.     

The characteristic differences of tropical cyclones forming over the western North Pacific and the South China Sea

The best track dataset of tropical cyclones in the western North Pacific (WNP) and the South China Sea (SCS) from 1977 to 2005 during the satellite era, the NCEP/NCAR reanalysis dataset and the extended reconstructed sea surface temperature dataset are employed in this study. The main climatological characteristics of tropical cyclone formation over the WNP and the SCS are compared. It is found that there is obviously different for the locations of tropical cyclone origins, achieving the lowest central pressure and termination points between over the WNP and over the SCS. The annual number of tropical cyclones forming over the SCS is obviously less than over the WNP, and there is a significant negative correlation with the correlation coefficient being -0.36 at the 5% significance level between over the WNP and over the SCS. The mean speed of tropical cyclone moving is 6.5 m /s over the WNP and 4.6 m /s over the SCS. The mean lowest central pressure of tropical cyclones is obviously weaker over the SCS than over the WNP. The tropical cyclone days per year, mean total distance and total displacement of tropical cyclone traveled over the WNP are all obviously longer than those over the SCS. Tropical cyclone may intensify to Saffir-Simpson hurricane scale 5 over the WNP, but no tropical cyclone can intensify to Saffir-Simpson hurricane scale 3 over the SCS. The changing ranges of the radii(R15,R16) of the 15.4 m /s winds them and the 25.7 m /s winds over the WNP are obviously wider than those over the SCS, and the median values of the radii over the WNP are also larger than those over the SCS. For the same intensity of tropical cyclones, both radii have larger medians over the WNP than over the SCS. The correlations of annual mean tropical cyclone size parameters between over the WNP and over the SCS are not significant. At the same time, the asymmetric radii of tropical cyclones over the WNP are different from those over the SCS.