The African Climate as Predicted by the IAP Grid-Point Nine-Layer Atmospheric General Circulation Model (IAP-9L-AGCM)

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A skillful method for precipitation prediction over eastern China

降水作为全球水循环的重要组成,与人们的生产生活密切相关.有效的降水预测对于防灾减灾,以及经济的可持续发展至关重要.然而,由于影响降水过程的复杂性,当前降水预测还存在诸多挑战.针对我国东部夏季降水,我们提出年际增量结合经验正交分解的新统计预测方法.首先计算降水年际增量的主模态,然后针对主模态时间序列构建预测模型,用预测的...     

Teleconnection between Sea Ice in the Barents Sea in June and the Silk Road,Pacific–Japan and East Asian Rainfall Patterns in August

In contrast to previous studies that have tended to focus on the influence of the total Arctic sea-ice cover on the East Asian summer tripole rainfall pattern, the present study identifies the Barents Sea as the key region where the June sea-ice variability exerts the most significant impacts on the East Asian August tripole rainfall pattern, and explores the teleconnection mechanisms involved. The results reveal that a reduction in June sea ice excites anomalous upward air motion due to strong near-surface thermal forcing, which further triggers a meridional overturning wave-like pattern extending to midlatitudes.Anomalous downward motion therefore forms over the Caspian Sea, which in turn induces zonally oriented overturning circulation along the subtropical jet stream, exhibiting the east–west Rossby wave train known as the Silk Road pattern. It is suggested that the Bonin high, a subtropical anticyclone predominant near South Korea, shows a significant anomaly due to the eastward extension of the Silk Road pattern to East Asia. As a possible descending branch of the Hadley cell, the Bonin high anomaly ultimately triggers a meridional overturning, establishing the Pacific–Japan pattern. This in turn induces an anomalous anticyclone and cyclone pair over East Asia, and a tripole vertical convection anomaly meridionally oriented over East Asia. Consequently, a tripole rainfall anomaly pattern is observed over East Asia. Results from numerical experiments using version 5 of the Community Atmosphere Model support the interpretation of this chain of events.     

大型通江湖泊洞庭湖的鱼类物种多样性及其时空变化

为了解通江湖泊鱼类物种多样性现状,于2004年3月-2004年12月和2005年5月对洞庭湖城陵矶、岳阳和沅江三个区域的鱼类进行逐月调查.共鉴定鱼类69种,隶属6目14科44属,其中59.4%为鲤科鱼类.以种类数和多样性指数分析了群落多样性特征,结果表明洞庭湖鱼类种类多样性较高,且时空变化较大.一般地,湖区与长江干流的距离越近,种类数达到峰值的时间就越早;鱼类多样性在春夏季高于秋冬季,在南洞庭湖高于其它两个区域.以优势度>5000为标准,全湖有17种优势种,其中80.0%为湖泊定居性鱼类.在生态类群方面,湖泊定居性鱼类种类最多,占总种类数的74.0%;江湖洄游性鱼类最少,占13.0%.对比分析显示,由于生境丧失、天然苗种资源衰退和过度捕捞等原因,洞庭湖鱼类多样性较20世纪70年代明显下降,洄游鱼类种类数减少;通江湖泊鱼类多样性明显高于阻隔湖泊,表明江湖阻隔造成鱼类多样性下降,因此,加强江湖连通是保护鱼类多样性的有效手段.     

南京市主城区大气颗粒物来源探讨

在2005-05-03——05-27期间,用Anderson九级采样器在南京市两个采样点采集大气气溶胶样品,同时进行了部分排放源的采集。用X射线—荧光光谱仪(XRF)分析得到气样及源样中PM10的化学成分,分析了南京市大气气溶胶的元素质量谱分布,进行了PM10的富集因子分析,并应用化学质量平衡法(CMB)计算各类源对气溶胶PM10的贡献。结果表明,各类污染源对南京市气溶胶PM10的贡献率分别为:建筑尘(35.45%)、煤烟尘(22.13%)、土壤尘(20.27%)、硫酸盐(5.43%)、汽车尘(4.61%)、海盐(1.91%)、冶炼尘(1.69%)、其它源(8.51%)。文中还结合了南京市TSP和PM2.5的来源解析结果,分析了南京市不同粒径气溶胶颗粒物的污染特征。     

鄱阳湖流域南昌市城市湖泊水体抗生素污染特征及生态风险分析

采用固相萃取-超高效液相色谱-质谱法对南昌市5个城市湖泊——艾溪湖、瑶湖、青山湖、象湖和东西湖水体的抗生素进行监测,并分析其污染来源和生态风险.结果表明,南昌市5个城市湖泊水体中四环素类、磺胺类、喹诺酮类、林可霉素及大环内酯类5类抗生素的检出浓度范围分别为ND~6.3、ND~32.0、ND~97.2、ND~54.7和ND~98.4 ng/L;红霉素和林可霉素是5个城市湖泊水体中的主要抗生素类型;相比于其他湖泊,南昌市城市湖泊水体中主要检出抗生素浓度总体处于中等水平,其中恩诺沙星的检出浓度高于其他对比湖泊.南昌市城市湖泊中6种主要抗生素的风险商均小于0.1,表明均为最低生态风险;5个城市湖泊的主要生态风险因子分别是艾溪湖为红霉素,瑶湖为磺胺二甲嘧啶,青山湖为罗红霉素,象湖为红霉素,东西湖为磺胺嘧啶.本研究可为南昌市城市湖泊水环境管理,特别是新型污染物的环境管理提供基础依据.     

The response of the North Pacific Decadal Variability to strong tropical volcanic eruptions

In this study, the effects of volcanic forcing on North Pacific climate variability, on interannual to decadal time scales, are examined using climate model simulations covering the last 600?years. The model used is the Bergen Climate Model, a fully coupled atmosphere–ocean general circulation model. It is found that natural external forcings, such as tropical strong volcanic eruptions (SVEs) and variations in total solar irradiance, play an important role in regulating North Pacific Decadal Variability (NPDV). In response to tropical SVEs the lower stratospheric pole–to–equator temperature gradient is enhanced. The North polar vortex is strengthened, which forces a significant positive Arctic Oscillation. At the same time, dipole zonal wind anomalies associated with strong polar vortex propagate downward from the lower stratosphere. Through positive feedbacks in the troposphere, the surface westerly winds across the central North Pacific are significantly weakened, and positive sea level pressure anomalies are formed in the North Pacific. This anomalous surface circulation results in changes in the net heat fluxes and the oceanic advection across the North Pacific. As a result of this, warm water converges in the subtropical western North Pacific, where the surface waters in addition are heated by significantly reduced latent and sensible heat fluxes from the ocean. In the eastern and high–latitude North Pacific the ocean loses more heat, and large–scale decreases in sea surface temperatures are found. The overall response of this chain of events is that the North Pacific enters a negative phase of the Pacific decadal oscillation (PDO), and this negative phase of the PDO is maintained for several years. It is thus concluded that the volcanic forcing plays a key role in the phasing of the PDO. The model results furthermore highlight the important role of troposphere–stratosphere coupling, tropical–extratropical teleconnections and extratropical ocean–atmosphere interactions for describing NPDV.     

A Trend towards a Stable Warm and Windless State of the Surface Weather Conditions in Northern and Northeastern China during 1961–2014

This study investigates the trends in the mean state and the day-to-day variability(DDV) of the surface weather conditions over northern and northeastern China(NNEC) during 1961–2014 using CN05.1 observational data. In this study, we show that the surface temperature(wind speed) has increased(decreased) over NNEC and that the DDV of the surface temperatures and wind speeds has decreased, indicating a trend towards a stable warm and windless state of the surface weather conditions over NNEC. This finding implies a trend towards more persistent hot and windless episodes, which threaten human health and aggravate environmental problems. The trends are also examined in reanalysis data. Both the ERA-40 and the NCEP data show an increasing(decreasing) trend in the mean state of the surface temperatures(wind speeds). However, the reanalysis data show a consistent decreasing trend in the DDV of the surface weather conditions only in the spring. The underlying reason for the decreased DDV of the surface weather conditions is further analyzed, focusing on the spring season. Essentially,the decreased DDV of the surface weather conditions can be attributed to a decrease in synoptic-scale wave activity, which is caused by a decrease in the baroclinic instability. There is a contrasting change in the baroclinic instability over East Asia, showing a decreasing(increasing) trend north(south) of 40°N. This contrasting change in the baroclinic instability is primarily caused by a tropospheric cooling zone over East Asia at approximately 40°N, which influences the meridional temperature gradient over East Asia.     

青藏高原中、东部全新世以来多年冻土 演化及寒区环境变化*

古冻土存在的依据和判别标志主要是古冻土遗迹(深埋藏多年冻土层、古冻土上限、融化夹层、厚层地下冰)和古冰缘现象(古冻胀丘、古融冻褶皱、砂楔、土楔、冰楔假型、风成沙丘、黄土层、厚层泥炭和腐殖质层等)。文章结合大量的测年数据,利用古代和现代冻土以及冰缘现象的时空分布差异综合分析对比,将全新世以来青藏高原多年冻土演化过程和环境变化划分为6个较明显的时段:早全新世的气候剧变期(10800aB.P.至8500~7000aB.P.)、中全新世大暖期(8500~7000aB.P.至4000~3000aB.P.)、晚全新世寒冷期(4000~3000aB.P.至1000aB.P.)、晚全新世温暖期(1000aB.P.至500aB.P.)、全新世末小冰期(500aB.P.至100aB.P.)及近代升温期(100aB.P.至今);同时,概述了各时段高原冻土的发育条件、分布范围及总面积,和当时高原上的古气候、古地理环境。     

ERA5风场与NCEP风场在黄海、东海波浪模拟的适用性对比研究

全球再分析数据集已成为研究气候规律和数值模拟的重要工具,其中海面风场数据集是波浪模拟的重要资料,风场资料的准确性是影响海浪要素模拟结果的关键因素,不同的海面风场资料在中国各个海域的适用性具有不确定性。利用黄海、东海海域的12个观测点,选取了2006—2018年间的11场台风进行对比,验证了ERA5和NCEP风场在台风期间与常海况下的风速;模拟了中国近海海域的波浪场,与范围内15个测站的有效波高及谱峰周期进行了对比验证;分析了ERA5和NCEP风场在黄海、东海波浪模拟的适用性。主要结果如下:(1)风场质量是造成台风浪模拟误差的主要原因之一,研究区域内ERA5风场在台风期间的风速大小与实测资料具有较高一致性;长江口邻近海域内,ERA5风速相关性在0.8以上;江苏海域内,ERA5风速相关性在0.9以上;(2)分别采用ERA5和NCEP再分析风场资料作为驱动风场输入Mike21 SW模型,较好地模拟了黄海、东海海域在不同海况下的波浪变化情况;在江苏海域,ERA5资料模拟波高值与浮标测站观测波高资料相关性超过0.85,平均绝对误差不超过0.2 m;(3)两种风场在江苏海域、长江口及其邻海的适用性比黄海北部更好。结果表明,NCEP和ERA5在中国近海海域波浪模拟的适用性有差异,在江苏海域、长江口及其邻海,基于ERA5的数值模拟结果相对于NCEP模拟结果精度提高。