宁河地震前后S波分裂变化

本研究利用宁河周围４个地震台的ＤＤ－１型短周期三分向记录图,对１９７６年１１月１５日宁河Ｍｓ６．９地震前后５个月内,距主震１０￣１５ｋｍ范围的８８个前震及余震进行Ｓ波分裂分析,根据Ｓ波分裂的时间延迟Δｔ变化发现,宁河主震前Ｓ波分裂的相位移动显著增高,且高值出现在主震震中附近并随主震距离增大而减小;异常始于主震前２５天左右,震源区异常时间更早些,异常值为４０￣８０ｍｓ,震后恢复到正常水平１０￣３５ｍ     

A preliminary attempt on decadal prediction of the East Asian summer monsoon

Theoretical and Applied Climatology - The East Asian summer monsoon (EASM) is one of the major synoptic systems that affect the summer climate in China. Decadal prediction of the EASM is of great...     

Distinct influential mechanisms of the warm pool Madden–Julian Oscillation on persistent extreme cold events in Northeast China

This study investigates whether and how the Madden–Julian Oscillation (MJO) influences persistent extreme cold events (PECEs), a major type of natural disaster in boreal winter, over Northeast China. Significantly increased occurrence probabilities of PECEs over Northeast China are observed in phases 3 and 5 of the MJO, when MJO-related convection is located over the eastern Indian Ocean and the western Pacific, respectively. Using the temperature tendency equation, it is found that the physical processes resulting in the cooling effects required for the occurrence of PECEs are distinct in the two phases of the MJO when MJO-related convection is consistently located over the warm pool area. The PECEs in phase 3 of the MJO mainly occur as a result of adiabatic cooling associated with ascending motion of the low-pressure anomaly over Northeast Asia. The cooling effect associated with phase 5 is stronger and longer than that in phase 3. The PECEs associated with phase 5 of the MJO are linked with the northwesterly cold advection of a cyclonic anomaly, which is part of the subtropical Rossby wave train induced by MJO-related convection in the tropical western Pacific.摘要 本文利用高分辨率气温数据和热带季节内振荡 (MJO) 实时指数, 研究了1979–2015年冬季MJO活动对中国东北持续性极端低温事件 (PECE) 的影响特征和机理.结果表明:当MJO对流分别位于暖池地区的东印度洋 (位相3) 和西太平洋 (位相5) 时, 中国东北PECE的发生频率显著增加.利用温度方程诊断分析发现MJO两个位相所导致的冷却过程不同: 当 MJO处于位相3时, 中国东北地区为低压异常, 上升运动引起绝热冷却作用; 而位相5所形成的气旋性环流为中国东北地区带来西北风冷平流, 降温过程更强且持续更长时间.     

Modulation of the Aleutian–Icelandic Low Seesaw and Its Surface Impacts by the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation

Early studies suggested that the Aleutian–Icelandic low seesaw(AIS) features multidecadal variation. In this study, the multidecadal modulation of the AIS and associated surface climate by the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation(AMO) during late winter(February–March) is explored with observational data. It is shown that, in the cold phase of the AMO(AMO|-),a clear AIS is established, while this is not the case in the warm phase of the AMO(AMO|+). The surface climate over Eurasia is significantly influenced by the AMO's modulation of the Aleutian low(AL). For example, the weak AL in AMO|-displays warmer surface temperatures over the entire Far East and along the Russian Arctic coast and into Northern Europe,but only over the Russian Far East in AMO|+. Similarly, precipitation decreases over central Europe with the weak AL in AMO|-, but decreases over northern Europe and increases over southern Europe in AMO|+.The mechanism underlying the influence of AMO|-on the AIS can be described as follows: AMO|-weakens the upward component of the Eliassen–Palm flux along the polar waveguide by reducing atmospheric blocking occurrence over the Euro–Atlantic sector, and hence drives an enhanced stratospheric polar vortex. With the intensified polar night jet, the wave trains originating over the central North Pacific can propagate horizontally through North America and extend into the North Atlantic, favoring an eastward-extended Pacific–North America–Atlantic pattern, and resulting in a significant AIS at the surface during late winter.     

Comparison of a very-fine-resolution GCM with RCM dynamical downscaling in simulating climate in China

Regional climate simulation can generally be improved by using an RCM nested within a coarser-resolution GCM. However, whether or not it can also be improved by the direct use of a state-of-the-art GCM with very fine resolution, close to that of an RCM, and, if so, which is the better approach, are open questions. These questions are important for understanding and using these two kinds of simulation approaches, but have not yet been investigated. Accordingly, the present reported work compared simulation results over China from a very-fine-resolution GCM (VFRGCM) and from RCM dynamical downscaling. The results showed that: (1) The VFRGCM reproduces the climatologies and trends of both air temperature and precipitation, as well as inter-monthly variations of air temperature in terms of spatial pattern and amount, closer to observations than the coarse-resolution version of the GCM. This is not the case, however, for the inter-monthly variations of precipitation. (2) The VFRGCM captures the climatology, trend, and inter-monthly variation of air temperature, as well as the trend in precipitation, more reasonably than the RCM dynamical downscaling method. (3) The RCM dynamical downscaling method performs better than the VFRGCM in terms of the climatology and inter-monthly variation of precipitation. Overall, the results suggest that VFRGCMs possess great potential with regard to their application in climate simulation in the future, and the RCM dynamical downscaling method is still dominant in terms of regional precipitation simulation.     

Validation of ice‐wedge isotopes at Yituli'he,northeastern China as climate proxy

Inactive ice wedges are still present today at Yituli'he in the middle Da Xing'anling (Greater Hinggan) Mountains in northeastern China, which is the southernmost known site (50°37′N) with ice wedges in the Northern Hemisphere. However, it is uncertain whether the ice‐wedge isotope composition, characterized by low δ¹⁸O, δD and low deuterium excess values, is representative of the isotope signature of a broader region. In this paper, the ice‐wedge isotope compositions were examined in the context of the stable isotopes of precipitation from the nearby Global Network of Isotopes in Precipitation (GNIP) stations. In addition, the pollen spectra from the host sediments were analysed to provide additional information on local vegetation in order to better understand the climate conditions favouring ice‐wedge formation. The pollen spectra suggest that the Yituli'he ice wedges developed during the colder and wetter period after 6000 cal. a BP. The isotopes in the Yituli'he ice wedges are consistent with the isotope background recorded in atmospheric precipitation collected at the nearby GNIP stations. When the snow‐melt froze into ice veinlets, the isotope signals did not change substantially because of the strong, cold, continental anticyclones in winter as well as a strong temperature inversion that prevail in the Da Xing'anling Mountains. As the climate pattern did not change substantially, the neoglacial cold period is unlikely to have allowed for strong secondary fractionation of isotope records during ice‐wedge formation. Thus, the annual isotope signature can be interpreted as a valid archive of climate data.     

中国气候预测研究与业务发展的回顾

天气预报是指一周内至两周时间尺度的气象预报,而月季及以上时间尺度的预报则属于气候预测范畴。中国的气候预测起步很早,无论在研究工作中还是在业务应用上都取得了显著成就。文中扼要回顾了这些研究和业务发展成就,重点包括:对于季风和梅雨、寒潮的早期认知和后期研究发现、早期气候预测业务发展概况、动力气候预测的早期探索、动力-统计气候预测方法的研制和应用、气候预测模式的发展以及初始化和多模式集合预测、东亚气候系统变异的全方位探索、气候预测范畴的不断拓展和气候预测研究的不断创新。也对未来气候预测研究和业务发展提出了几个重大挑战性课题,涉及不同时间尺度气候变异过程之间的相互作用、季节内至年代际气候预测、气候系统模式及初始化、动力-统计相结合的气候预测方法等方面。      

Sensible and latent heat flux response to diurnal variation in soil surface temperature and moisture under different freeze/thaw soil conditions in the seasonal frozen soil region of the central Tibetan Plateau

The relationship between sensible and latent heat flux and diurnal variation in soil surface temperature and moisture under four freeze/thaw soil conditions was investigated using observed soil temperature and moisture and simulated sensible and latent heat flux. The diurnal range of latent heat flux had a similar temporal change pattern as that of unfrozen soil water at depths of 0–3 cm during the freezing stage. Also, there was a better relationship with the diurnal range of unfrozen soil water at depths of 3–6 cm during the thawing stage. Diurnal variation in latent heat flux was significant and depended mostly on solar radiation during the completely thawed stage. However, while diurnal variation in solar radiation during the completely frozen stage was significant, for latent heat flux it was quite weak due to low unfrozen soil water content. Thus, diurnal variation in latent heat flux depended mostly on unfrozen soil water content during this stage. During the freezing and thawing stages, diurnal variation in latent heat flux was also significant and depended mostly on diurnal variation in unfrozen soil water content. However, the impacts of air temperature change from solar radiation on latent heat flux could not be ignored.