数量性状位点的相对选择效率

从理论上采用蒙特卡罗(Monte Carlo)模拟的方法研究了不同遗传力条件下数量性状位点的直接选择(DSQ)和以表型为基础的选择(TBS)在10个不重叠世代中的选择反应以及DSQ相对于TBS的优势。结果表明,在10个世代中DSQ的选择进展在几乎总是大于TBS的选择进展,说明DSQ较TBS具有优越性;但DSQ的相对选择效率(RSE)会随着世代数的增加而呈现较迅速下降的趋势,单个性状情况下RSE则呈直线下降的趋势。随着选择代数的增加,DSQ将失去其优越性,TBS在遗传进展上将超过DSQ。     

Possible climate change/variability and human impacts,vulnerability of drought-prone regions,water resources and capacity building for Africa

ABSTRACT

This review article discusses the climate, water resources and historical droughts of Africa, drought indices, vulnerability, impact of global warming and land use for drought-prone regions in West, southern and the Greater Horn of Africa, which have suffered recurrent severe droughts in the past. Recent studies detected warming and drying trends in Africa since the mid 20th century. Based on the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change and the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5), both northern and southern Africa are projected to experience drying, such as decreasing precipitation, runoff and soil moisture in the 21st century and could become more vulnerable to the impact of droughts. The daily maximum temperature is projected to increase by up to 8°C (RCP8.5 of CMIP5), precipitation indices such as total wet day precipitation (PRCPTOT) and heavy precipitation days (R10 mm) could decrease, while warm spell duration (WSDI) and consecutive dry days (CDD) could increase. Uncertainties of the above long-term projections, teleconnections to climate anomalies such as ENSO and the Madden-Julian Oscillation, which could also affect the water resources of Africa, and capacity building in terms of physical infrastructure and non-structural solutions are also discussed. Given that traditional climate and hydrological data observed in Africa are generally limited, satellite data should also be exploited to fill the data gap for Africa in the future.

Editor D. Koutsoyiannis; Associate editor N. Ilich     

论虚拟地理环境对地理知识的表达与共享

地理知识是通过对地理科学领域独特的背景、过程和结果进行解释而得到的知识。如何有效表达和共享地理知识是地理学研究和应用中的重要问题。本文首先将地理知识划分为3个层次,事实型知识、规则及控制型知识和决策型知识,分析了不同阶段地理语言对地理知识表达与共享的支持能力。对比地图和GIS语言,发现新一代地理语言—虚拟地理环境VGEs(Virtual Geographic Environments)能够较为全面地支持3个层次的地理知识。针对VGEs,从多个角度分析了其服务于地理知识表达与共享的能力,包括虚实结合理论、地理模型库及管理系统、动态可视化表达和异地协同工作环境。结合面向珠江三角洲地区空气质量研究问题的虚拟地理环境平台,对上述各方面进行了阐述。最后从地理知识生成、管理与应用角度对未来研究提出展望。     

地震前兆仪器管理系统建设

长期以来,对前兆台网仪器的管理缺乏系统性。为此,研发了前兆仪器管理系统。该系统实现了对前兆仪器从购买到淘汰整个生命周期的管理,其中包括安装、接入、运行、故障、停测、报废等,以及仪器故障维修流程的管理,其中包括故障登记、处理、维修、备机备件库等。基于这些信息,对仪器及故障维修情况进行综合统计分析,为管理决策提供信息支持。本文主要介绍了该系统设计的一些主要技术方面和系统实现的主要功能。     

速度差对井间走时层析成像质量的影响及其改进方法

在井间地震初至走时层析成像中,随着相邻地质体速度差的增大,使得射线分布不均匀,以及网格剖分不合适,导致层析成像结果不理想.物理和数值模型的井间走时层析成像表明：当速度差超过30.0%时,层析结果畸变较大;在30.0%～15.0%之间时,层析结果较好;低于15.0%时,层析结果好.在此基础上,提出了井间多尺度初至走时层析成像方法,即对同一模型采用多种网格剖分来同时进行层析成像,以获得研究区域的速度图像.数学和物理模型的井间多尺度走时层析结果表明：该方法很好地兼顾了层析成像的分辨率和精度,极大地改善了井间地震层析成像的质量.即使速度差超过30%,其多尺度的层析结果仍然较好.因此,这种方法具有实际应用的潜力.     

简单海-气边界层模式中的埃克曼流动Ⅰ——无限深海的情形

近十余年来,海洋和大气相互作用这一课题日益受到人们的关注。从海-气边界层结构以及通过海面的物理量和化学量输送机制的研究到大尺度海洋和大气相互作用的研究都取得了可喜的成果。此外,还从海洋和大气相互作用的观点探索了风暴潮预报的新的可能途径^[2]。然而,由于问题的复杂性,通过海面以及海-气边界层的物理量的小尺度输送机制迄未得到澄清,企图从本质上改善大尺度海洋和大气相互作用的理论是不现实的。     

Frequency-dependent rupture process,stress change,and seismogenic mechanism of the 25 April 2015 Nepal Gorkha <Emphasis Type="Italic">M</Emphasis><Subscript>w</Subscript> 7.8 earthquake

On 25 April 2015, an M _w 7.8 earthquake occurred on the Main Himalaya Thrust fault with a dip angle of ~ 7° about 77 km northwest of Kathmandu, Nepal. This Nepal Gorkha event is the largest one on the Himalayan thrust belt since 1950. Here we use the compressive sensing method in the frequency domain to track the seismic radiation and rupture process of this event using teleseismic P waves recorded by array stations in North America. We also compute the distribution of static shear stress changes on the fault plane from a coseismic slip model. Our results indicate a dominant east-southeastward unilateral rupture process from the epicenter with an average rupture speed of ~3 km s^?1. Coseismic radiation of this earthquake shows clear frequency-dependent features. The lower frequency (0.05–0.3 Hz) radiation mainly originates from large coseismic slip regions with negative coseismic shear stress changes. In comparison, higher frequency (0.3–0.6 Hz) radiation appears to be from the down-dip part around the margin of large slip areas, which has been loaded and presents positive coseismic shear stress changes. We propose an asperity model to interpret this Nepal earthquake sequence and compare the frequency-dependent coseismic radiation with that in subduction zones. Such frequency-dependent radiation indicates the depth-varying frictional properties on the plate interface of the Nepal section in the main Himalaya thrust system, similar to previous findings in oceanic subduction zones. Our findings provide further evidence of the spatial correlation between changes of static stress status on the fault plane and the observed frequency-dependent coseismic radiation during large earthquakes. Our results show that the frequency-dependent coseismic radiation is not only found for megathrust earthquakes in the oceanic subduction environment, but also holds true for thrust events in the continental collision zone.     

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重庆大学危岩锚固工程简介

重庆大学18层高层建筑物拟建在嘉陵江高陡斜坡脚下,斜坡上部陡崖为侏罗系上沙溪庙组巨厚层砂岩,岩石原生及岸剪裂隙发育,危岩直接威胁着建筑物。川地208队采用锚杆加固及涂抹砂浆水泥护坡综合防治工程,效果明显。     

Thermal conductivity measurements of road construction materials in frozen and unfrozen state

A series of thermal conductivity measurements for various materials was performed in a large climate chamber. The size of the chamber allowed the preparation of relatively large samples in a controlled thermal environment. Three types of thermal sensors were used: (1) two needle probes; (2) a grid of temperature sensors, evenly distributed inside the sample; (3) two additional thermal probes, which were simplified versions of an instrument originally developed for measuring thermal properties of the ice/dust mixture expected to exist at the surface of a comet nucleus. They consist of a series of individual temperature sensors integrated into a glass fibre rod. Each of these sensors can be operated in an active (heated) or passive (only temperature sensing) mode. The following sample materials were used: fine-grained reddish sand, coarse-grained moist sand, gravels with various grain size distributions from < 1 cm up to about 6 cm, and for comparison and calibration pure water (with convection suppressed by adding agar-agar), compact ice, and compact granite. Of particular interest are the measurements with composite samples, like stones embedded in an agar-agar matrix. We describe the evaluation methods and present the results of the thermal conductivity measurements.