射电脉冲星的偏振特性与逆康普顿散射（ICS）模型

大量射电脉冲星的偏振观测－包括红偏振和圆偏振，个别脉冲的生直偏振模式，累积脉冲的消偏振现象等－为辐射区的物理状态和辐射提供了非常确切的观测事实，但现有理论对大从观测事实尚无法给出完整的说明，综述了脉冲星的偏振观测特征，并利用逆康谱顿散射模型对这些特性进行了解释。     

猜测，思维的翅膀——论猜测性思维在地学中的应用

地质思维是地学研究特有的思维方式。地学的研究方法、理论学说的建立，地球史观的变革都包含着推测、猜想的成分。猜测是一种类比思维，它与逻辑推理交织在一起，也有一个验证和修正的过程     

Validation of the effects of temperature simulated by multi-model ensemble and prediction of mean temperature changes for the next three decades in China

Using series of daily average temperature observations over the period of 1961–1999 of 701 meteorological stations in China, and simulated results of 20 global climate models (such as BCCR_BCM2.0, CGCM3T47) during the same period as the observation, we validate and analyze the simulated results of the models by using three factor statistical method, achieve the results of multi- model ensemble, test and verify the results of multi-model ensemble by using the observation data during the period of 1991–1999. Finally, we analyze changes of the annual mean temperature result of multi-mode ensemble prediction for the period of 2011–2040 under the emission scenarios A2, A1B and B1. Analyzed results show that: (1) Global climate models can reproduce Chinese regional spatial distribution of annual mean temperature, especially in low latitudes and eastern China. (2) With the factor of the trend of annual mean temperature changes in reference period, there is an obvious bias between the model and the observation. (3) Testing the result of multi-model ensemble during the period of 1991–1999, we can simulate the trend of temperature increase. Compared to observation, the result of different weighing multi-model ensemble prediction is better than the same weighing ensemble. (4) For the period of 2011–2040, the growth of the annual mean temperature in China, which results from multi-mode ensemble prediction, is above 1 °C. In the spatial distribution of annual mean temperature, under the emission scenarios of A2, A1B and B1, the trend of growth in South China region is the smallest, the increment is less than or equals to 0.8 °C; the trends in the northwestern region and south of the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau are the largest, the increment is more than 1 °C.     

地理信息系统支持区域土地利用决策的研究

本文以江苏省溧阳县为例,研究地理信息系统技术在区域土地利用多目标规划中的应用,着重探讨地理信息系统支持的区域土地利用决策原理和方法。研究表明,在地理信息系统的支持下,通过单项适宜性评价模型和生产布局决策模型的建立与运行,可以有效地进行研究区合理的土地利用布局和为区域土地管理提供依据。     

基于PS-DR-DP理论模型的区域资源环境承载力综合评价（英文）

The concepts of regional resources and environmental carrying capacity are important aspects of both academic inquiry and government policy. Although notable results have been achieved in terms of evaluating both these variables, most researchers have utilized a traditional analytical method that incorporates the "pressure-state-response" model. A new approach is proposed in this study for the comprehensive evaluation of regional resources and environmental carrying capacity; applying a "pressure-support", "destructiveness-resilience", and "degradation-promotion"("PS-DR-DP") hexagon interaction theoretical model, we divided carrying capacity into these three pairs of interactive forces which correspond with resource supporting ability, environmental capacity, and risk-disaster resisting ability, respectively. Negative carrying capacity load in this context was defined to include pressure, destructiveness, and degradation, while support, resilience, and promotion comprised positive attributes. The status of regional carrying capacity was then determined via the ratio between positive and negative contribution values, expressed in terms of changes in both hexagonal shape and area that result from interactive forces. In order to test our "PS-DR-DP" theory-based model, we carried out a further empirical study on Beijing over the period between 2010 and 2015. Analytical results also revealed that the city is now close to attaining a perfect state for both resources and environmental carrying capacity; the latter state in Beijing increased from 1.0143 to 1.1411 between 2010 and 2015, an improved carrying capacity despite the fact that population increased by two million. The average contribution value also reached 0.7025 in 2015, indicating that the city approached an optimal loading threshold at this time but still had space for additional carrying capacity. The findings of our analysis provide theoretical support to enable the city of Beijing to control population levels below 23 million by 2020.     

利用自回归模型检测地球极移重力效应

同时采用4个台站的国际超导重力仪长期连续重力观测资料和国际地球自转服务中心提供的同步地球自转参数，研究了极移引起的地球重力场变化特征。利用自回归模型估计了各序列的功率谱密度和积谱密度，结果表明极移导致的重力效应的主要能量集中在Chandler摆动和周年项附近，叠积后实际重力观测与极移重力信号理论值之间的差异分别为0．4％和3．9％，说明超导重力仪可有效监测极移导致的重力变化。     

乌兰布和沙漠东北缘地表风沙流结构特征

在国家林业局磴口荒漠生态站长期监测的基础上,利用多种积沙仪,对乌兰布和沙漠东北缘流动沙丘、油蒿半固定沙丘、白刺半固定沙丘、油蒿固定沙丘、白刺固定沙丘5种典型下垫面近地面（0～100 cm）的风沙流输沙量进行了实地观测和对比分析。结果表明：（1） 输沙率（q）随高度（h）增加呈幂函数（q=ah^-b,R²≥0.8409）规律衰减,随风速（v）增大呈幂函数（q=av^b,R²≥0.9256）规律增加,42.8%～70.7%的输沙量分布在10 cm高度内,67.6%～90.0%的输沙量分布于30 cm高度内。当地表植被盖度达到40%以上时,输沙率下降至无植被覆盖地表输沙率的6.6%以下,可有效阻止地表风蚀。（2） 沙物质主要由粒径为50～250 μm的细沙和极细沙构成,各高度层风蚀物粒度组成服从单峰态分布,峰值在100～250 μm。随高度增加,风蚀物粒径范围趋于变窄,粒径趋于更细。（3） 起沙风多出现在WSW和NW方向,占全年起沙风的53.19%。风沙流中跃移输沙、蠕移输沙的空间分布在理论上应与风向频率分布基本一致,差异性主要由各方位风的强度和持续时间等因素导致。研究结果可为该区域防沙工程设计提供理论参考。     

A semi-analytical solution for frost heave prediction of clay soil

Frost heave is one of the main freezing problems for construction in permafrost regions.The Konrad-Morgenstern segregation potential（SP） model is being used in practice for frost heave using numerical techniques.However,the heat release from in-situ and migrated water in the freezing zone could result in some numerical instability,so the simulation of frost fringe is not ideal.In this study,a semi-analytical solution is developed for frost heave prediction of clay soil.The prediction results to the two tests with different freezing mode with clay soil agree well with the tested behavior,which indicates the feasibility of the solution.     

岩浆铜-镍-铂族元素硫化矿床“深部熔离-贯入”成矿作用与模式——加拿大伏伊希湾和中国金川矿床地质特征对比

通过对金川铜镍矿床地质、矿化特征与加拿大伏伊希湾（Voisey’s Bay）铜-镍-铂族元素硫化物矿床进行系统对比分析,总结出这2个世界级铜镍硫化物矿床形成演化方面的相似性、可比性及其共同特点,即深部岩浆房含矿岩浆沿通道脉动式上侵,到上部表现为“小岩体,成大矿”。成矿作用过程和模式表现为：①含矿岩浆的有序侵位显示岩浆在深部岩浆房停歇过程中曾发生熔离分异,形成岩浆、含矿岩浆、富矿岩浆和矿浆分层结构;②成矿作用是在富有动力的岩浆环境下岩浆不连续（脉动式）上侵过程中发生的,岩浆熔融体富含挥发组分,上侵活动剧烈,围岩角砾化;③含矿岩浆沿相同的通道或越位上侵,在先期侵入岩体下侧或上方不同空间成矿;④岩浆运移过程中与围岩发生相互作用、组分交换和成矿物质的富集。深入阐明了含矿岩浆不连续（脉动式）上侵、后续岩浆补给和混合是镁铁—超镁铁岩体中硫化物被聚集在岩浆流动的通道内形成超大型铜镍硫化物型铂族元素矿床的重要机制。