Sources of the Slowly-Varying Component of Solar Microwave Emission and their Relationship with their Host Active Regions

Daily surveys of the solar disc made at 2.8 cm wavelength over the period 1–13 November 1981, complemented by magnetograms and H filtergrams, are used to examine the relationship between sources of the slowly varying component of solar radio emission and properties of their host regions. Two classes of source are noted: diffuse and compact. Sources are designated compact when smaller than 40. The diffuse sources may be explained in terms of free–free thermal emission from trapped plasma in loops overlying the active region. The great majority of compact sources can be accounted for in terms of gyroresonance from thermal electrons in the strong magnetic fields overlying sunspots. A small minority are less amenable to this explanation. They are associated with magnetic complexity and dynamism, lie close to magnetic polarity reversals, and could be non-thermal. Microwave sources are an evolutionary feature common to all but the smallest active regions.     

List of Forthcoming Papers

Other Index

List of Forthcoming Papers     

A crustal seismic velocity model for the UK, Ireland and surrounding seas

A regional model of the 3-D variation in seismic P -wave velocity structure in the crust of NW Europe has been compiled from wide-angle reflection/refraction profiles. Along each 2-D profile a velocity–depth function has been digitised at 5 km intervals. These 1-D velocity functions were mapped into three dimensions using ordinary kriging with weights determined to minimise the difference between digitised and interpolated values. An analysis of variograms of the digitised data suggested a radial isotropic weighting scheme was most appropriate. Horizontal dimensions of the model cells are optimised at 40 × 40 km and the vertical dimension at 1 km. The resulting model provides a higher resolution image of the 3-D variation in seismic velocity structure of the UK, Ireland and surrounding areas than existing models. The construction of the model through kriging allows the uncertainty in the velocity structure to be assessed. This uncertainty indicates the high density of data required to confidently interpolate the crustal velocity structure, and shows that for this region the velocity is poorly constrained for large areas away from the input data.     

Experimental superensemble forecasts of tropical cyclones over the Bay of Bengal

This study entails the implementation of an experimental real time forecast capability for tropical cyclones over the Bay of Bengal basin of North Indian Ocean. This work is being built on the experience gained from a number of recent studies using the concept of superensemble developed at the Florida State University (FSU). Real time hurricane forecasts are one of the major components of superensemble modeling at FSU. The superensemble approach of training followed by real time forecasts produces the best forecasts for tracks and intensity (up to 5 days) of Atlantic hurricanes and Pacific typhoons. Improvements in track forecasts of about 25–35% compared to current operational forecast models has been noted over the Atlantic Ocean basin. The intensity forecasts for hurricanes are only marginally better than the best models. In this paper, we address tropical cyclone forecasts over the Bay of Bengal for the years 1996–2000. The main result from this study is that the position and intensity errors for tropical cyclone forecasts over the Bay of Bengal from the multimodel superensemble are generally less than those of all of the participating models during 1- to 3-day forecasts. Some of the major tropical cyclones, such as the November 1996 Andhra Pradesh cyclone and October 1999 Orissa super cyclone were well handled by this superensemble approach. A conclusion from this study is that the proposed approach may be a viable way to construct improved forecasts of Bay of Bengal tropical cyclone positions and intensity.     

Observation of a coronal mass ejection in January 1997 using radio sounding of the near-solar plasma with the GALILEO spacecraft

Measurements of frequency fluctuations in radio signals generated by the GALILEO spacecraft from January 6 to 11, 1997 are presented and analyzed. The passage of a coronal mass ejection observed by the SOHO/LASCO coronagraph on January 6, 1997 through the radio-communication path between the spacecraft and a ground station was recorded. Radio sounding was carried out at a carrier frequency of 2295 MHz at a heliocentric distance of about 32 solar radii, with the signal being received at three ground stations. As the mass ejection intersected the propagation path, the mean frequency of the signal increased and several-hour-long frequency fluctuations were enhanced. A spectral analysis of the frequency fluctuations shows that the regime and level of plasma turbulence are substantially different in different sections of the quiet solar wind and the disturbed plasmoid. A correlation between the intensity and temporal spectrum of the frequency fluctuations is found. The plasma density in the leading part of the coronal mass ejection exceeds the mean background value by more than an order of magnitude. Our correlation analysis of the frequency fluctuations recorded simultaneously at two widely separated measuring points shows that two flow components with different velocities—the quiet solar wind and a perturbed stream—crossed the communication path. The radio-sounding data are compared with observations of the coronal mass ejection by the SOHO/LASCO coronagraph and plasma measurements near the Earth’s orbit using the WIND satellite. A pronounced correlation is found between the variations in the mean frequency of the sounding signal and the plasma density in near-Earth space.     

Monitoring and Verifying Changes of Organic Carbon in Soil

Changes in soil and vegetation management can impact strongly on the rates of carbon (C) accumulation and loss in soil, even over short periods of time. Detecting the effects of such changes in accumulation and loss rates on the amount of C stored in soil presents many challenges. Consideration of the temporal and spatial heterogeneity of soil properties, general environmental conditions, and management history is essential when designing methods for monitoring and projecting changes in soil C stocks. Several approaches and tools will be required to develop reliable estimates of changes in soil C at scales ranging from the individual experimental plot to whole regional and national inventories. In this paper we present an overview of soil properties and processes that must be considered. We classify the methods for determining soil C changes as direct or indirect. Direct methods include field and laboratory measurements of total C, various physical and chemical fractions, and C isotopes. A promising direct method is eddy covariance measurement of CO₂ fluxes. Indirect methods include simple and stratified accounting, use of environmental and topographic relationships, and modeling approaches. We present a conceptual plan for monitoring soil C changes at regional scales that can be readily implemented. Finally, we anticipate significant improvements in soil C monitoring with the advent of instruments capable of direct and precise measurements in the field as well as methods for interpreting and extrapolating spatial and temporal information.