The Times Atlas and actual Greenland ice loss

In September 2011 two Greenland stories hit the press, by far the bigger of which was the widespread misreporting (and consequent backlash) that Greenland had apparently lost 15 per cent of its ice cover since 1999. The public are used to an annual press bombardment of record temperatures, ever increasing melt and ice retreat in polar regions but a 15 per cent loss in 12 years does seem fanciful.     

Palaeoglaciology of Bayan Har Shan,NE Tibetan Plateau: exposure ages reveal a missing LGM expansion

The Bayan Har Shan, a prominent upland area in the northeastern sector of the Tibetan Plateau, hosts an extensive glacial geological record. To reconstruct its palaeoglaciology we have determined ¹⁰Be exposure ages based on 67 samples from boulders, surface pebbles, and sediment sections in conjunction with studies of the glacial geology (remote sensing and field studies) and numerical glacier modelling. Exposure ages from moraines and glacial sediments in Bayan Har Shan range from 3 ka to 129 ka, with a large disparity in exposure ages for individual sites and within the recognised four morphostratigraphical groups. The exposure age disparity cannot be explained by differences in inheritance without using unrealistic assumptions but it can be explained by differences in post-depositional shielding which produces exposure ages younger than the deglaciation age. We present a palaeoglaciological time-slice reconstruction in which the most restricted glaciation, with glaciers less than 10 km long, occurred before 40–65 ka. More extensive glaciations occurred before 60–100 ka and 95–165 ka. Maximum glaciation is poorly constrained but probably even older. The Bayan Har Shan exposure age dataset indicates that glaciers on the northeastern Tibetan Plateau have remained surprisingly restricted for at least 40 ka, including the global last glacial maximum (LGM). This case of a missing LGM is further supported by high-resolution glacier modelling experiments.     

Dynamic cycles,ice streams and their impact on the extent,chronology and deglaciation of the British–Irish ice sheet

We present results from a suite of forward transient numerical modelling experiments of the British and Irish Ice Sheet (BIIS), consisting of Scottish, Welsh and Irish accumulation centres, spanning the last Glacial period from 38 to 10 ka BP. The 3D thermomechanical model employed uses higher-order physics to solve longitudinal (membrane) stresses and to reproduce grounding-line dynamics. Surface mass balance is derived using a distributed degree-day calculation based on a reference climatology from mean (1961–1990) precipitation and temperature patterns. The model is perturbed from this reference state by a scaled NGRIP oxygen isotope curve and the SPECMAP sea-level reconstruction. Isostatic response to ice loading is computed using an elastic lithosphere/relaxed asthenosphere scheme. A suite of 350 simulations were designed to explore the parameter space of model uncertainties and sensitivities, to yield a subset of experiments that showed close correspondence to offshore and onshore ice-directional indicators, broad BIIS chronology, and the relative sea-level record. Three of these simulations are described in further detail and indicate that the separate ice centres of the modelled BIIS complex are dynamically interdependent during the build up to maximum conditions, but remain largely independent throughout much of the simulation. The modelled BIIS is extremely dynamic, drained mainly by a number of transient but recurrent ice streams which dynamically switch and fluctuate in extent and intensity on a centennial time-scale. A series of binge/purge, advance/retreat, cycles are identified which correspond to alternating periods of relatively cold-based ice, (associated with a high aspect ratio and net growth), and wet-based ice with a lower aspect ratio, characterised by streaming. The timing and dynamics of these events are determined through a combination of basal thermomechanical switching spatially propagated and amplified through longitudinal coupling, but are modulated and phase-lagged to the oscillations within the NGRIP record of climate forcing. Phases of predominant streaming activity coincide with periods of maximum ice extent and are triggered by abrupt transitions from a cold to relatively warm climate, resulting in major iceberg/melt discharge events into the North Sea and Atlantic Ocean. The broad chronology of the modelled BIIS indicates a maximum extent at ～20 ka, with fast-flowing ice across its western and northern sectors that extended to the continental shelf edge. Fast-flowing streams also dominate the Irish Sea and North Sea Basin sectors and impinge onto SW England and East Anglia. From ～19 ka BP deglaciation is achieved in less than 2000 years, discharging the freshwater equivalent of ～2 m global sea-level rise. A much reduced ice sheet centred on Scotland undergoes subsequent retrenchment and a series of advance/retreat cycles into the North Sea Basin from 17 ka onwards, culminating in a sustained Younger Dryas event from 13 to 11.5 ka BP. Modelled ice cover is persistent across the Western and Central Highlands until the last remnant glaciers disappear around 10.5 ka BP.     

Geophysical monitoring and reactive transport modeling of ureolytically-driven calcium carbonate precipitation

Ureolytically-driven calcium carbonate precipitation is the basis for a promising in-situ remediation method for sequestration of divalent radionuclide and trace metal ions. It has also been proposed for use in geotechnical engineering for soil strengthening applications. Monitoring the occurrence, spatial distribution, and temporal evolution of calcium carbonate precipitation in the subsurface is critical for evaluating the performance of this technology and for developing the predictive models needed for engineering application. In this study, we conducted laboratory column experiments using natural sediment and groundwater to evaluate the utility of geophysical (complex resistivity and seismic) sensing methods, dynamic synchrotron x-ray computed tomography (micro-CT), and reactive transport modeling for tracking ureolytically-driven calcium carbonate precipitation processes under site relevant conditions. Reactive transport modeling with TOUGHREACT successfully simulated the changes of the major chemical components during urea hydrolysis. Even at the relatively low level of urea hydrolysis observed in the experiments, the simulations predicted an enhanced calcium carbonate precipitation rate that was 3-4 times greater than the baseline level. Reactive transport modeling results, geophysical monitoring data and micro-CT imaging correlated well with reaction processes validated by geochemical data. In particular, increases in ionic strength of the pore fluid during urea hydrolysis predicted by geochemical modeling were successfully captured by electrical conductivity measurements and confirmed by geochemical data. The low level of urea hydrolysis and calcium carbonate precipitation suggested by the model and geochemical data was corroborated by minor changes in seismic P-wave velocity measurements and micro-CT imaging; the latter provided direct evidence of sparsely distributed calcium carbonate precipitation. Ion exchange processes promoted through NH4+ production during urea hydrolysis were incorporated in the model and captured critical changes in the major metal species. The electrical phase increases were potentially due to ion exchange processes that modified charge structure at mineral/water interfaces. Our study revealed the potential of geophysical monitoring for geochemical changes during urea hydrolysis and the advantages of combining multiple approaches to understand complex biogeochemical processes in the subsurface.     

Phase separation in giant planets: inhomogeneous evolution of Saturn

We present the first models of Jupiter and Saturn to couple their evolution to both a radiative-atmosphere grid and to high-pressure phase diagrams of hydrogen with helium and other admixtures. We find that prior calculated phase diagrams in which Saturn's interior reaches a region of predicted helium immiscibility do not allow enough energy release to prolong Saturn's cooling to its known age and effective temperature. We explore modifications to published phase diagrams that would lead to greater energy release, and propose a modified H-He phase diagram that is physically reasonable, leads to the correct extension of Saturn's cooling, and predicts an atmospheric helium mass fraction Y_atmos=0.185, in agreement with recent estimates. We also explore the possibility of internal separation of elements heavier than helium, and find that, alternatively, such separation could prolong Saturn's cooling to its known age and effective temperature under a realistic phase diagram and heavy element abundance (in which case Saturn's Y_atmos would be solar but heavier elements would be depleted). In none of these scenarios does Jupiter's interior evolve to any region of helium or heavy-element immiscibility: Jupiter evolves homogeneously to the present day. We discuss the implications of our calculations for Saturn's primordial core mass.     

Damping coefficients for near-fault ground motion response spectra

Damping coefficients are frequently used in earthquake engineering as a simple way to adjust the pseudo-acceleration or displacement response spectra associated with a viscous damping ratio of 5% to the higher values of viscous damping needed for design of structures equipped with base isolation and/or supplemental energy dissipation devices. In this study, damping coefficients for the single-degree-of-freedom system subjected to near-fault ground motions are calculated for a large range of periods and damping levels. The results indicate that damping coefficients proposed in design codes and previous studies, based primarily on far-field ground motion records, tend to not be conservative for near-fault seismic excitations. A new approach is recommended for the derivation of damping coefficients appropriate for engineering analysis and design in the immediate vicinity of the earthquake fault. This includes the normalization of the period axis with respect to the duration of the ground velocity pulses recorded in the near-fault region. The pulse duration is controlled by the rise time on the fault plane and scales directly with earthquake magnitude.     

An assessment of hydrothermal alteration in the Santiaguito lava dome complex, Guatemala: implications for dome collapse hazards

A combination of field mapping, geochemistry, and remote sensing methods has been employed to determine the extent of hydrothermal alteration and assess the potential for failure at the Santiaguito lava dome complex, Guatemala. The 90-year-old complex of four lava domes has only experienced relatively small and infrequent dome collapses in the past, which were associated with lava extrusion. However, existing evidence of an active hydrothermal system coupled with intense seasonal precipitation also presents ideal conditions for instability related to weakened clay-rich edifice rocks. Mapping of the Santiaguito dome complex identified structural features related to dome growth dynamics, potential areas of weakness related to erosion, and locations of fumarole fields. X-ray diffraction and backscattered electron images taken with scanning electron microscopy of dacite and ash samples collected from around fumaroles revealed only minor clay films, and little evidence of alteration. Mineral mapping using ASTER and Hyperion satellite images, however, suggest low-temperature (<150 °C) silicic alteration on erosional surfaces of the domes, but not the type of pervasive acid-sulfate alteration implicated in collapses of other altered edifices. To evaluate the possibility of internal alteration, we re-examined existing aqueous geochemical data from dome-fed hot springs. The data indicate significant water–rock interaction, but the Na–Mg–K geoindicator suggests only a short water residence time, and δ¹⁸O/δD ratios show only minor shifts from the meteoric water line with little precipitation of secondary (alteration) minerals. Based on available data, hydrothermal alteration on the dome complex appears to be restricted to surficial deposits of hydrous silica, but the study has highlighted, importantly, that the 1902 eruption crater headwall of Santa María does show more advanced argillic alteration. We also cannot rule out the possibility of advanced alteration within the dome complex interior that is not accessible to the methods used here. It may therefore be prudent to employ geophysical methods to make further assessments in the future.     

New constraints on turbulent transport in accretion discs

Many objects studied in astronomy follow a power-law distribution function (DF), for example the masses of stars or star clusters. A still used method by which such data is analysed is to generate a histogram and fit a straight line to it. The parameters obtained in this way can be severely biased, and the properties of the underlying DF, such as its shape or a possible upper limit, are difficult to extract. In this work, we review techniques available in the literature and present newly developed (effectively) bias-free estimators for the exponent and the upper limit. Furthermore, we discuss various graphical representations of the data and powerful goodness-of-fit tests to assess the validity of a power law for describing the distribution of data. As an example, we apply the presented methods to the data set of massive stars in R136 and the young star clusters in the Large Magellanic Cloud. For R136 we confirm the result of Koen of a truncated power law with a bias-free estimate for the exponent of  2.20 ± 0.78/2.87 ± 0.98  (where the Salpeter–Massey value is 2.35) and for the upper limit of  143 ± 9/163 ± 9 M_⊙  , depending on the stellar models used. The star clusters in the Large Magellanic Cloud (with ages up to  10^7.5 yr  ) follow a truncated power-law distribution with exponent  1.62 ± 0.06  and upper limit  68 ± 12 × 10³ M_⊙  . Using the graphical data representation, a significant change in the form of the mass function below  10^2.5 M_⊙  can be detected, which is likely caused by incompleteness in the data.     

Influence of seasonality on glacier mass balance, and implications for palaeoclimate reconstructions

Climates inferred from former glacier geometries in some areas exhibit discrepancies with regional palaeoclimates predicted by General Circulation Models (GCMs) and modelling of palaeoecological data, possibly as a consequence of their differing treatments of climatic seasonality. Since glacier-based climate reconstructions potentially offer an important tool in the calibration of GCMs, which themselves need validation if used to predict future climate scenarios, we attempt to resolve mismatches between these techniques by (1) investigating the influence of seasonality on glacier mass balance, and (2) refining the methodology used for the derivation of glacier-based palaeoclimates. Focussing on the Younger Dryas stadial glaciation of Scotland, northeast Atlantic, we show that sea-ice amplified seasonality led to a significantly drier climate than has been suggested by glacier-based interpretations. This was characterised by a relatively short ablation season and the survival of a more substantial winter snowpack. We suggest that if palaeoglaciological studies were to account for changes in seasonal temperature and precipitation variability, their results would agree more closely with the cold, arid, northeast Atlantic palaeoenvironment predicted by atmospheric modelling and northwest European pollen studies, and would therefore provide more accurate constraints for GCM calibration.     

A new method for estimating high-frequency radar error using data from Central San Francisco Bay

This study offers a new method for estimating High-Frequency (HF) radar surface current velocity error in data comparisons with other types of instrumentation. A new method is needed in order to remove the zero-mean random spatial and temporal fluctuations present in surface-current measurements from all sensors. Conventional methods for calculating radar error when comparing with another instrument have included their root mean square differences and scatter plots that provide correlation coefficient and slope/intercept of the regression line. It seems that a meaningful estimate of radar error should attempt to remove both sensors’ zero mean random fluctuations, inasmuch as possible. We offer and compare a method that does this. The method was tested on data collected in the Central San Francisco Bay, where GPS surface-drifter deployments were conducted within the coverage of four 42 MHz radars over six days in October of 2008. Drifters were continuously deployed in these areas over the sampling days, providing 525 usable drifter measurements. Drifter and radar measurements were averaged into thirty-minute time bins. The three-day long-term averages from the sampling areas were then subtracted from the thirtyminute averages to remove biases associated with comparisons done with short, disjoint time-sample periods. These were then used to develop methods that give radar error or bias after the random fluctuations have been removed. Results for error estimates in this study are commensurate with others where random fluctuations have been filtered, suggesting they are valid. The estimated error for the radars in the SF Bay is low, ranging from ?7.57 cm/s to 0.59 cm/s.