阶段递进地震预报思路及其应用

首先提供了１９９８年１０月云南宁蒗５．３级地震前所确认的孕震过程和主要前兆异常,以此为例阐述阶段递进的预报思路;这一项预报思路首先根据历史震例中区域应力场的活动轨迹,跟踪其当前加载区域和活动构造,以被加载区域预释放大于２倍均方差及３．０～４．９级地震时空丛集图象认孕震区的存在;以此孕震区为载体思考近源区各种前兆异常的内在相关性,利用发震概率计算模型和各种短临预报指标对发震概率Ｐ进行具体计算,以Ｐ≥     

微震仪标定精度的分析与改进

从微震仪标定的基本公式出发，以误差理论为基础，以ＤＤ—１型地震仪为例，导出标定中各因素对标定精度的影响；并用概率统计方法，对标定精度做了比较符合实际的计算，进而提出了提高标定精度的改进措施。     

用大地测量资料反演滇西地震预报实验场断裂带的活动段

本文根据滇西地震预报实验场的部分大地测量资料应用反演方法研究了区内活动断裂带的现今活动段。结合地震活动和地震地质资料对地震危险区作了进一步的估计。     

墨水湖N/P水质模型研究

武汉墨水湖30多年来因湖周大量城市污水的排入,造成湖泊严重富营养化,急需综合规划治理,因此需研究墨水湖水体污染变化规律,开展水质模型的研究。针对墨水湖水文、水质、地貌状况,把整个湖区划分五块（子湖区）,建立分散结构N/P水质模型,提出了一套可行的模型参数识别方法,并作了模拟检验,精度令人满意。在分析中运用系统论方法,并应用计算机现编程序操作。     

A climatic dataset of ocean vertical turbulent mixing coefficient based on real energy sources

Using data on wind stress, significant height of combined wind waves and swell, potential temperature, salinity and seawater velocity, as well as objectively-analyzed in situ temperature and salinity, we established a global ocean dataset of calculated wind- and tide-induced vertical turbulent mixing coefficients. We then examined energy conservation of ocean vertical mixing from the point of view of ocean wind energy inputs, gravitational potential energy change due to mixing (with and without artificially limiting themixing coefficient), and K-theory vertical turbulent parameterization schemes regardless of energy inputs. Our research showed that calculating the mixing coefficient with average data and artificial limiting the mixing coefficient can cause a remarkable lack of energy conservation, with energy losses of up to 90% and changes in the energy oscillation period. The data also show that wind can introduce a huge amount of energy into the upper layers of the Southern Ocean, and that tidesdo so in regions around underwater mountains. We argue that it is necessary to take wind and tidal energy inputs into account forlong-term ocean climate numerical simulations. We believe that using this ocean vertical turbulent mixing coefficient climatic dataset is a fast and efficient method to maintain the ocean energy balance in ocean modeling research.     

Phosphatic microspherules and their geobiological implications from the Frasnian-Famennian transition at the Yangdi section,Guilin, South China

Abundant perfectly-preserved phosphatic microspherules have been discovered across the Frasnian-Famennian(F-F)transition from the Yangdi section in Guilin,Guangxi,South China.They are mostly spherical or elliptical in shape and about 150μm in diameter with smooth exterior surfaces.Each microspherule consistently possesses a small dimple on the surface.The internal texture of microspherules consists of concentric light-colored apatite and dark-colored organic matter bands alternating around a central core.Conodonts have also been found preserved together with phosphatic microspherules in the same horizon,and the abundance of the former is obviously higher than that of the latter.Laser Raman spectral studies show close similarities in spectral patterns between the outer shells of phosphatic microspherules and the blade of the conodont genus Palmatolepis sp.,as well as between the microspherule nucleus and the platform of the same conodont genus.Furthermore,the statistical results and geochemical data demonstrate that the elevated abundance of phosphatic microspherules roughly coincides with the blooms of bacteria and algae,but is later than the sharp increase of oceanic nutrients.The phosphatic microspherules are interpreted here to be the‘otoliths’secreted by conodont animals based on the compositional similarities between phosphatic microspherules and conodonts and their interrelated abundances.In addition,an analogous study reveals morphological and textural similarities between fish otoliths and phosphatic microspherules.The formation of phosphatic microspherules is probably related to seawater eutrophication.We speculate that the explosive growth of bacteria and algae is probably caused by the enrichment of nutrients that is most likely associated with the increase of terrestrial inputs,submarine hydrothermal activities or the upwelling anoxic bottom waters in the late Devonian,which would stimulate the conodont animals to secrete phosphatic microspherules—the‘otoliths’of conodont animals.This study reveals the coupling relationship between organisms and environments from the perspective of phosphatic microspherules and provides new evidence for the cause of faunal crisis during the Late Devonian F-F transition.     

Analytical investigations of seismic responses for reinforced concrete bridge columns subjected to strong near-fault ground motion

Strong near-fault ground motion, usually caused by the fault-rupture and characterized by a pulse-like velocity- wave form, often causes dramatic instantaneous seismic energy (Jadhav and Jangid 2006). Some reinforced concrete (RC) bridge columns, even those built according to ductile design principles, were damaged in the 1999 Chi-Chi earthquake. Thus, it is very important to evaluate the seismic response of a RC bridge column to improve its seismic design and prevent future damage. Nonlinear time history analysis using step-by-step integration is capable of tracing the dynamic response of a structure during the entire vibration period and is able to accommodate the pulsing wave form. However, the accuracy of the numerical results is very sensitive to the modeling of the nonlinear load-deformation relationship of the structural member. FEMA 273 and ATC-40 provide the modeling parameters for structural nonlinear analyses of RC beams and RC columns. They use three parameters to define the plastic rotation angles and a residual strength ratio to describe the nonlinear load- deformation relationship of an RC member. Structural nonlinear analyses are performed based on these parameters. This method provides a convenient way to obtain the nonlinear seismic responses of RC structures. However, the accuracy of the numerical solutions might be further improved. For this purpose, results from a previous study on modeling of the static pushover analyses for RC bridge columns (Sung et al. 2005) is adopted for the nonlinear time history analysis presented herein to evaluate the structural responses excited by a near-fault ground motion. To ensure the reliability of this approach, the numerical results were compared to experimental results. The results confirm that the proposed approach is valid.     

滆湖磷迁移过程的研究(一)——磷迁移模型的建立

通过滆湖磷的来源途径(入湖河道、湖区径流、湖面沉降、养殖技饵、底泥释放)和湖体各要素(水体、浮游植物、大型水生植物、鱼类等)中磷迁移过程调查资料的分析,建立了描述磷在上述各要素中迁移过程的数学模型.经实测资料验证,模型的计算值与实测值的平均相对误差在9.9%-18.6%.基本反映了磷的迁移过程及动态变化规律,对该湖磷浓度预测及磷资源合理利用具有重要的意义.     

1997年9月三水3.7和4.4级地震特征初析

对１９９７年９月２３日和２６日两次三水有感地震的特征进行了初步分析,认为这两次地震具有震前和震后地震活动水平低、面波发育和低震级高烈度等特性;震区的主压应力为北北西方向,两震的受力方向基本一致,但断层面解明显不同。     

Relationship between faults and generation of inland shallow earthquakes: enlightenment of the M=7.2 southern Hyogo prefecture earthquake

The M=7.2 southern Hyogo prefecture earthquake, which occurred on January 17, 1995, destroyed the region severely. Further researches are necessary to explain the problems obtained from this earthquake. We have discussed some characteristics correlating with this earthquake, such as distribution of aftershocks and disaster, relationship between fault and generation of inland shallow earthquakes, strong motion and so on. The tectonic movements of surface faults may be different from those of deep faults. Earthquakes may not be restricted directly by the tectonic movements of surface faults. The strong motion zone is often appeared in the region a little away from the both ends or from the single side of a fault instead of the region of a focal fault. Some mechanisms of strong motion have also been discussed.