南海海岛自动气象站防护应用技术探索

立足海南及南海的自然条件,结合海岛自动气象站在南海高温、高湿、高盐雾、强辐射、强风等恶劣气候环境下使用情况,通过对历年来海岛自动气象站故障及失效模式的统计和分析,总结分析故障原因。根据设备维护人员多年气象设备保障工作积累总结的经验,从海岛自动气象站结构和防护要求出发,集成应用市场上优质材料、先进工艺和多种成熟、关键设备防护技术,形成一些气象设备防护的有效方法措施,以提高海岛自动气象站对海洋环境的适应性和性能,延长设备使用寿命。     

Modification of strain wedge method for lateral soil-pile interaction in sandEI北大核心CSCD

A modified strain wedge (SW) method for analyzing the behavior of laterally loaded single piles in sand is proposed. The modified model assumes that the lateral displacements of a pile behind the three-dimensional passive soil wedge are nonlinear, which makes the horizontal soil strain variable with depths instead of a constant value in the original strain wedge model, and also employs two different hyperbolic models, one for describing horizontal stress increment-strain behavior of soil in the wedge, and the other for describing the shear stress-displacement property at the interface between soil and pile shafts. An example is analyzed to demonstrate the effectiveness of the modified method, and a good agreement is obtained. Finally, the effects of modifications on the lateral bearing capacity of pile shafts are discussed. The results show that the problem of overestimating the lateral bearing capacity of piles with strain wedge method can be ameliorated by introducing the assumption of nonlinear lateral displacements of piles. It makes the SW method more convenient and effective in analyzing the behavior of laterally loaded piles by introducing the new relationships of horizontal stress increment-strain and shear stress-displacement.     

基于层区带刻度区地质特点的资源评价方法适用性分析

针对新型的层区带刻度区进行资源评价方法的适应性研究是长庆四次资评一项重要内容。采用油藏规模序列法、油藏过程模型法、容积法和饱和探井法4种资源评价方法,对具不同成藏特点的刻度区进行了深入的方法适用性分析和参数研究。研究结果表明,过程类资源评价方法对低渗透、特低渗透连续性岩性油藏,在以储量提交单元作为统计单元进行油藏发现序列与规模序列模拟时,计算参数的合理性与计算结果认知度很难达到统一。而勘探程度类资源评价方法,在深入的地质分析基础上,选择合理适宜的关键参数,是可以求得较为可信的地质资源量。当然,评价者对评价对象的认识程度和对评价方法的掌握程度也影响着资源评价的结果。     

委内瑞拉奥里诺科重油带沉积特征

委内瑞拉奥里诺科重油带是世界上储量最大、开发程度最低的重油富集带。目前对油区主力储层的沉积特征及其演化规律认识并不明确。基于钻井岩心、测井、地震及生物化石等资料,结合盆地构造演化、构造特征、地层特征等因素的分析,重点研究了重油带主力储层的沉积演化特征。结果表明:重油带渐新统-中新统主力储层内主要发育12种岩相和6种岩相组合,其中以河流相岩相组合为主;地层由下到上可以划分出3个完整的海进海退沉积旋回(5个沉积单元);在探讨重油带主力储层沉积砂体平面演化规律的基础之上,建立了受河流控制、潮汐和沿岸流共同影响作用下形成的三角洲沉积模式,以期对类似油气聚集区的勘探、开发有所帮助。     

多元时间序列分析的滑坡演化阶段划分

滑坡的时间-位移曲线一般具有3个阶段特征,即初始变形阶段、等速变形阶段和加速变形阶段,不同演化阶段加速度具有不同的变化特点.目前往往是依据对加速度曲线特征的分析来人为划分演化阶段,缺少相应的理论支持和定量计算.针对上述问题,选取月降雨量、月库水位高程变化量对滑坡的累计位移建立多因素的时间序列预测模型.然后利用Chow分割点检验理论,以所建模型中F和LR统计量最大值点作为分割点对滑坡演化阶段进行划分.以新滩滑坡和三峡库区白水河滑坡为例,利用累计位移、降雨及库水位变化数据进行计算验证.结果表明,对多元时间序列模型进行Chow分割点检验可对滑坡的演化阶段进行准确划分,为滑坡的临滑预警预报提供重要判据.      

CMIP5模式对中国近海海表温度的模拟及预估

基于观测和再分析资料;利用多种指标和方法评估了国际耦合模式比较计划（CMIP5）中21个模式对中国近海海温的月、季节和年际变化模拟能力。多模式集合能够再现气候平均意义下近海海温的空间分布特征;但量值上存在一定的低估。在渤海和黄海;集合平均与观测差别比较明显。在年际尺度上;与观测数据对比;模式模拟海温与Niño3指数相关性较小。中国近海海表面温度在1960-2002年有明显的升高趋势;从2003年开始增温趋缓。评估结果表明;ACCESS1.0、BCC-CSM1.1、HadGEM2-ES、IPSL-CM5A-MR、CMCC-CM、FGOALS-g2、CNRM-CM5-2、INMCM4八个模式对中国近海海温的变化有较好的模拟能力。利用ACCESS1.0、INMCM4、BCC-CSM1.1、IPSL-CM5A-MR、CMCC-CM这5个模式结果对中国近海海温未来的变化进行了预估。在RCP4.5、RCP8.5情景下;未来近100年中国近海海温有明显升高趋势;最优模式多模式集合平均增温分别可达到1.5℃、3.3℃;净热通量变化和平流变化共同促进了东海升温。     

Stability analysis of an ancient landslide considering shear strength reduction behavior of slip zone soil

In this paper, the stability of an ancient landslide during the first impounding of a nearby reservoir is investigated through the analyses of the shear strength reduction behavior of slip zone soil. In view of the experimental observations, an empirical strain-dependent soil model is established and is then incorporated in finite element analyses. The numerical analysis results show that the failing sections progressively develop due to the soil strength declines from peak toward residual, and the shear zone propagates within the front slope. It is demonstrated in the numerical results that the toe weighting measure has a significant effect on restraining the shear displacements of the soils and preventing the progressive failure of the landslide. The field observations further confirmed the stability condition of the reinforced landslide.     

Risk management study on impulse waves generated by Hongyanzi landslide in Three Gorges Reservoir of China on June 24, 2015

On June 24, 2015, Hongyanzi slope located in Wushan County of the Three Gorges Reservoir collapsed, generating 5–6-m-high impulse waves, which overturned 13 boats, killed 2 persons, and injured 4 persons. It is the second incident of landslide-generated impulse waves since the 175-m experimental impoundment in 2008. The emergency investigation shows that Hongyanzi landslide is a bedding soil landslide with a volume of 23?×?10⁴ m³ induced by a series of triggering factors such as rainfall, flooding upstream, and reservoir drawdown. The nonlinear Boussinesq water wave model is used to reproduce the impulse waves generated by the landslide of June 24th. The numerical simulation results suggest that the wave propagation process was influenced by the T-shaped geomorphic conditions of river valley, and the coastal areas in the county seat were the major wave-affected areas, which is opposite to the landslide. The numerical wave process accord well with the observed incident, and the investigation values were in good agreement with the calculated values. Moreover, the worst-case scenario of the 7?×?10⁴ m³ deformation mass beside Hongyanzi landslide is potential to generate impulse waves, which was predicted with the same numerical model. This adjacent deformation mass will probably generate impulse waves with maximum height and run-up of 2.2 and 2.0 m, respectively, and only a very few areas in the water course had waves rising to a height of 1 m or above. The research results provide a technical basis for emergency disposal to Hongyanzi landslide and navigation restriction in Wushan waterway. More importantly, it pushes the risk management of the navigation based on the impulse wave generated by landslide. It is advised that the Three Gorges Reservoir and other reservoirs around the world should put more efforts in performing special surveys and studies on the potential hazards associated with landslide-generated impulse waves.