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运用气象影视节目强化气象科普宣传

通过对目前气象科普知识宣传现状的分析,找出存在的问题和电视气象节目气象科普宣传的优势,提出强化电视气象节目气象科普宣传的建议,为我们搞好气象科技服务打下良好的社会基础.     

迁徙季节水鸟对滨海不同类型湿地的利用——以广西山口红树林自然保护区为例

为了解迁徙季节水鸟在不同滨海湿地中的结构组成和行为特征,于2010年3月、4月、9月、11月和2011年3月,在山口自然保护区及其周边地区对不同滨海湿地类型的水鸟展开调查。结果显示:迁徙季节天然湿地共记录到水鸟6目8科39种,人工湿地有6目9科50种。天然湿地比人工湿地的物种数少,整体数量上,春季人工湿地大于天然湿地,秋季则为天然湿地水鸟数量更多。鹬鸻类在不同滨海湿地类型中觅食行为比例差异显著,在天然湿地中觅食比例达到76.67%,而在人工湿地中则以休息和睡眠等非觅食行为为主。天然湿地是鹬鸻类的重要觅食地,而人工湿地则是鹭类和鹬鸻类的主要休息地。鹭类在两种滨海湿地类型中觅食个体的数量不随潮汐的涨落而相应增减。鹬鸻类随潮汐高度上升,在两种滨海湿地类型中觅食的个体数量减少。山口地区的滨海人工湿地是水鸟在高潮期间天然湿地良好的替代栖息地。     

分段多项式拟合在动三轴试验数据处理中的应用

动三轴采集的试验数据点(剪应变与动剪模量和阻尼比之间)具有离散性和有限性,为方便应用需要对数据点进行拟合,但现有经验公式不一定很好吻合试验数据。为得到不同剪应变与对应的动剪模量和阻尼比之间的关系,本文利用最小二乘原理,对渤海某海洋平台地基土进行动三轴试验获得的动剪模量、阻尼比与剪切应变的数据进行了分段多项式的拟合。数据处理过程是先对剪应变值进行了压缩处理,然后再分段低次多项式拟合,得到多项式拟合参数。通过此项改进解决了正规方程解中的病态问题,且拟合效果良好。     

长江口及其邻近陆架区夏季网采浮游植物及其影响因素

2009年6、8月长江口及其邻近陆架区的网采样品中检出浮游植物9门395种(含223种硅藻与125种甲藻)。浮游植物丰度8月(3 077.15×104 cells/m3)显著高于6月(107.80×104 cells/m3)。随长江冲淡水势力增强,位于长江口的丰度高值区8月较6月更偏外侧。种类丰富度8月高于6月,但多样性和均匀度指数略低于6月。6月尖刺伪菱形藻和三角角藻占绝对优势,8月优势种主要有尖刺伪菱形藻、笔尖形根管藻和铁氏束毛藻。骨条藻虽非优势种,但在长江冲淡水区丰度较高。相似性分析和多维尺度分析表明,浮游植物群落组成时空差异显著。典范对应分析表明,温度和盐度是分别影响6、8月群落分布的首要因子。根据水动力和化学参数,该区浮游植物群落分布与环流变化和水团消长密切相关。     

Response of evapotranspiration and water availability to the changing climate in Northern Eurasia

We introduce a probabilistic framework for vulnerability analysis and use it to quantify current and future vulnerability of the US water supply system. We also determine the contributions of hydro-climatic and socio-economic drivers to the changes in projected vulnerability. For all scenarios and global climate models examined, the US Southwest including California and the southern Great Plains was consistently found to be the most vulnerable. For most of the US, the largest contributions to changes in vulnerability come from changes in supply. However, for some areas of the West changes in vulnerability are caused mainly by changes in demand. These changes in supply and demand result mainly from changes in evapotranspiration rather than from changes in precipitation. Importantly, changes in vulnerability from projected changes in the standard deviations of precipitation and evapotranspiration are of about the same magnitude or larger than those from changes in the corresponding means over most of the US, except in large areas of the Great Plains, in central California and southern and central Texas.     

Variability of Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation in FGOALS-g2简

The variability of Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation （AMOC） in the pre-industrial control experiment of the Flexible Global Ocean-Atmosphere-Land System model, Grid-point Version 2 （FGOALS-g2） was investigated using the model outputs with the most stable state in a 512-yr time window from the total 1500-yr period of the experiment. The period of AMOC in FGOALS-g2 is double peaked at 20 and 32 years according to the power spectrum, and 22 years according to an auto-correlation analysis, which shows very obvious decadal variability. Like many other coupled climate models, the decadal variability of AMOC in FGOALS-g2 is closely related to the convection that occurs in the Labrador Sea region. Deep convection in the Labrador Sea in FGOALS-g2 leads the AMOC maximum by 3-4 years. The contributions of thermal and haline effects to the variability of the convection in three different regions [the Labrador, Irminger and Greenland-Iceland- Norwegian （GIN） Seas] were analyzed for FGOALS-g2. The variability of convection in the Labrador and Irminger Seas is thermally dominant, while that in the colder GIN Seas can be mainly attributed to salinity changes due to the lower thermal expansion. By comparing the simulation results from FGOALS-g2 and 11 other models, it was found that AMOC variability can be attributed to salinity changes for longer periods （longer than 35 years） and to temperature changes for shorter periods.     

Ocean Model Open Boundary Conditions with Volume,Heat and Salinity Conservation Constraints简

Open boundary conditions （OBCs） for a regional ocean model that can be integrated stably over a long timeframe, as well as satisfy the volume, heat and salinity conservation constraints, were developed. First, the idea that the inward and outward flux information can be treated separately in the OBCs was adopted. Second, in order to maintain the property that the volume, heat and salinity remains conserved in the simulation domain, conservation constraints were added to the OBCs, and an inverse method utilized to solve the constraint equations. Ideal experiments were designed to investigate the conservation property, and the OBCs were found to work efficiently to maintain the volume, heat and salinity conservation. It was found that simulations were comparable to observations when the OBCs were applied to a regional ocean model.