Predicting tsunami arrivals: Estimates and policy implications

Tsunami is one of a few kinds of natural disasters that leave people some time for escape. This escape time, which is essentially the time for the giant wave to propagate from the epicentre to a coast, has to be estimated without delay upon the occurrence of the incident. With the advancement of water wave theories, much work has been done to model the propagation of tsunamis from deep oceans to shallow water. The authors argue that while much emphasis has been put on the expansion of the high-tech early warning system and the development of complicated tsunami models, a simple-to-use yet accurate predictive model is still wanting. This paper presents a handy linear wave model, which is capable of estimating the arrival time of a tsunami with very good accuracy, as has been verified by comparison with past incidents. With the availability of such a simple model, even local communities without access to a high-tech warning system can readily estimate the time left for emergency evacuation.     

平息地震谣传,确保社会安定稳定——“11.26”平息地震谣传引发的思考

本文通过叙述“11.26”地震谣传事件的形成及其在当地党委、政府有力指挥下,迅速予以平息,确保社会安定稳定。闸述了产生地震谣传事件的主要原因以及由此引发深思的若干问题:     

非震物探方法在南方油气调查中的应用效果

本次工作地区为重庆市武隆县周围,工作主要任务目标,利用重力和大地电磁测深MT,初步揭示武隆区块震旦系下古生界等重点层系地层特征及构造样式,基本查明浅部构造与深部构造之间的关系,从构造角度分析武隆区块油气保存状况.我们在工区布置了2条测量剖面,位于武隆县南部,贵州道真县北部.两条剖面长度分别30 km和50 km,总长度为80 km.主要的工作方法大地电磁测深MT和重力,其中MT点距为500 m,重力点距为50m.经过野外数据采集、数据处理和分析等手段,对两条剖面进行了定性和定量解释并推断了3条断层、有利于油气保存条件的地层.     

Modeling the sediment yield from landslides in the Shihmen Reservoir watershed,Taiwan

Landslides generate enormous volumes of sediment in mountainous watersheds; however, quantifying the downstream transport of landslide‐derived sediment remains a challenge. Landslide erosion and sediment delivery to the Shihmen Reservoir watershed in Taiwan was estimated using empirical landslide frequency–area and volume–area relationships, empirical landslide runout models, and the Hydrological Simulation Program‐ FORTRAN (HSPF). Landslide erosion rates ranged from 0.4 mm yr^‐1 to 2.2 mm yr^‐1 during the period 1986–2003, but increased to 7.9 mm yr^‐1 following Typhoon Aere in 2004. The percentage of landslide sediment delivered to streams decreased from 78% during the period 1986–1997 to 55% in 2004. Although the delivery ratio was lower, the volume of landslide sediment delivered to streams was 2.81 × 10⁶ Mg yr^‐1 in 1986–1997 and 8.60 × 10⁶ Mg yr^‐1 in 2004. Model simulations indicate that only a small proportion of the landslide material was delivered downstream. An average of 13% of the landslide material delivered to rivers was moved downstream during the period 1986–1997. In 2004, the period including Typhoon Aere, the annual fluvial sediment yield accounted for approximately 23% of the landslide material delivered to streams. In general, the transfer of sediment in the fluvial system in the Shihmen Reservoir watershed is dominantly transport limited. The imbalance between sediment supply and transport capacity has resulted in a considerable quantity of landslide material remaining in the upper‐stream regions of the watershed. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Speciation and potential remobilization of heavy metals in sediments of the Taihu Lake, China

The species of Cu, Pb, Zn, Cd and Cr in sediments of the Taihu Lake, China, have been analyzed using the sequential chemical extraction method. Variations in the chemical fractions of these metals and their geographic distributions have also been studied. For all five metals, the residual fraction is highest but the exchangeable fraction is lowest among all the fractions. Compared to other metals, Cd has the highest percentage in the exchangeable fraction, and Cr is associated mainly with the residual fraction. Cu in the organic fraction and Pb in the Fe-Mn fraction are the important species, whereas the lowest percentages are found for Cd in the organic fraction, Cu in the Fe-Mn oxide fraction and Pb in the carbonate fraction. With respect to spatial differences, the total contents in the non-residual fractions of the metals in bay sediments are found to be higher than those in other sediments. The fractions of Cd, Cu and Cr showed significant variations in different regions. The fractions of Pb and Zn, however, did not show significant variations in spatial distribution, suggesting different amounts and different paths of anthropogenic input for the metals. Comparisons of the metal speciation indicated that Cd might be the most bioavailable metal, followed by Pb.     

如何控制数字地下地形图的空间占用

数字地形图的数据量的大小不但取决于采点密谋，而且也受AUTOCAD中的某些操作的影响。     

苍山5.2Ms级地震前后地震前兆综合危险度的变化

地震前兆综合危险度是以系统论为基础的一种综合地震预报的新方法。利用山东省每年年底的地震会商报告给出的地震前兆异常,而不是取震后的震例总结或论文给出的异常,通过“专家系统”的思想,对每一异常事件进行综合评估,计算出无量纲的、归一化的地震前兆综合危险度,分析了１９９５年９月２０日山东苍山５２Ｍｓ级地震前综合危险度的变化特征。震前综合危险度出现了一次明显的高值异常变化,震后危险度很快下降恢复到正常水平。     

Spatial and Temporal Variations of Sound Speed at the PN Section

Gridded sound speed data were calculated using Del Grosso's formulation from the temperature and salinity data at the PN section in the East China Sea covering 92 cruises between February 1978 and October 2000. The vertical gradients of sound speed are mainly related to the seasonal variations, and the strong horizontal gradients are mainly related to the Kuroshio and the upwelling. The standard deviations show that great variations of sound speed exist in the upper layer and in the slope zone. Empirical orthogonal function analysis shows that contributions of surface heating and the Kuroshio to sound speed variance are almost equivalent. This revised version was published online in July 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date.