华东地区台风暴雨的诊断研究

本文利用一个空间滤波器将物理量分解为天气尺度和次天气尺度,以两个路径相似但环流形势不同的台风暴雨作为例子,对不同尺度的环流及其动能平衡进行诊断研究,结果表明:中、低纬环流系统能否进行相互作用是决定台风暴雨强度和范围的一个重要条件。在8209号台风过程中,这种相互作用是明显的,因而,8209号台风暴雨的强度和范围均显著大于8304号台风。同时,8209号台风暴雨的能量过程突出地反映在次天气尺度的动能场上,相反,在8304号台风过程中,以天气尺度的能量过程为主要的能量特征。本文还特别指出,不能简单地认为登陆台风是一个动能的“准封闭系统”,在8209号台风过程中,台风从中、低层向外输出的次天气尺度动能是造成台风环流之外暴雨的一个重要物理过程。     

中酸性隐爆角砾岩、次火山(超浅成)岩与成矿的关系——以广西贵港新民—吉塘铜银矿区为例

研究了隐爆角砾岩与断层角砾岩、火山爆破角砾岩的区别,隐爆岩筒上、中、下部隐爆角砾岩的区别,含矿隐爆角砾岩筒特征,以及与隐爆、成矿作用有关的次火山(超浅成)岩特征。     

Tectono–Magmatic Evolution and Metallogenesis along the Northeast Jiangxi Deep Fault, China

Abstract: From the southernmost part of Jiangsu province to the northeastern part of Jiangxi province, China, the Northeast Jiangxi Deep Fault runs for about 400 km length with a width of 30 to 40 km. This fault marks the suture zone of two ter-ranes of Proterozoic age. At the both sides of the fault, Yanshanian granitic activity is recognized. That is, the Dexing-Wuyuan porphyry belt on the NW side of the fault, and the Damaoshan-Lingshan granite belt on the SE side. The former activity is characterized by the occurrence of small stocks of granodioritic composition, rich in siderophile elements but poor in LIL elements. No distinct Eu anomaly is recognized in the REE pattern, and a low initial ⁸⁷Sr/⁸⁶Sr ratio is reported. Magnetite, sphene and apatite are observed as accessory minerals. On the contrary, granitic activity on the SE side of the fault is characterized by the occurrence of composite batholiths, in general of granitic to monzogranitic composition, rich in LIL and alkali elements but poor in siderophile and alkali earth elements. A strong Eu anamaly is recognized in the REE pattern, and initial ⁸⁷Sr/⁸⁶Sr ratios are as high as 0. 716. Fluorite, zircon and REE minerals are observed as accessory minerals. These two contrasting granitic activities are refered to as syntexis– and transformation–types, respectively, following the classification commonly used in China, and have similar petrochemical characteristics to those defined for the magnetite– and ilmenite–series, and I– and S-type granitoids. Considering that the above igneous activity occurred far from the supposed subduction zone along the East Coast of China, intracontinental A-type (continent to continent) subduction is proposed to have occurred northwestwards along the NE Jiangxi Deep Fault during Yanshanian time due to a strong compressional stress from SE to NW. A-type subduction introduced the continental slab to some depth, and resulted in the production of the paired granitic activity observed on both sides of the fault. Many mineral deposits are associated with both granitic belts. In the Dexing-Wuyuan porphyry belt, the Dexing porphyry Cu and Yinshan polymetallic deposits are representative, whereas in the Damaoshan-Lingshan granite belt, several tens of rare metal deposits are known such as the Geyuan Nb–Ta–W–Sn deposits. Metal assemblages of those deposits reflect the source materials of magmas in both granitic belts.     

Comparison of parameter uncertainty analysis techniques for a TOPMODEL application

Parameter uncertainty in hydrologic modeling is crucial to the flood simulation and forecasting. The Bayesian approach allows one to estimate parameters according to prior expert knowledge as well as observational data about model parameter values. This study assesses the performance of two popular uncertainty analysis (UA) techniques, i.e., generalized likelihood uncertainty estimation (GLUE) and Bayesian method implemented with the Markov chain Monte Carlo sampling algorithm, in evaluating model parameter uncertainty in flood simulations. These two methods were applied to the semi-distributed Topographic hydrologic model (TOPMODEL) that includes five parameters. A case study was carried out for a small humid catchment in the southeastern China. The performance assessment of the GLUE and Bayesian methods were conducted with advanced tools suited for probabilistic simulations of continuous variables such as streamflow. Graphical tools and scalar metrics were used to test several attributes of the simulation quality of selected flood events: deterministic accuracy and the accuracy of 95 % prediction probability uncertainty band (95PPU). Sensitivity analysis was conducted to identify sensitive parameters that largely affect the model output results. Subsequently, the GLUE and Bayesian methods were used to analyze the uncertainty of sensitive parameters and further to produce their posterior distributions. Based on their posterior parameter samples, TOPMODEL’s simulations and the corresponding UA results were conducted. Results show that the form of exponential decline in conductivity and the overland flow routing velocity were sensitive parameters in TOPMODEL in our case. Small changes in these two parameters would lead to large differences in flood simulation results. Results also suggest that, for both UA techniques, most of streamflow observations were bracketed by 95PPU with the containing ratio value larger than 80 %. In comparison, GLUE gave narrower prediction uncertainty bands than the Bayesian method. It was found that the mode estimates of parameter posterior distributions are suitable to result in better performance of deterministic outputs than the 50 % percentiles for both the GLUE and Bayesian analyses. In addition, the simulation results calibrated with Rosenbrock optimization algorithm show a better agreement with the observations than the UA’s 50 % percentiles but slightly worse than the hydrographs from the mode estimates. The results clearly emphasize the importance of using model uncertainty diagnostic approaches in flood simulations.     

宁夏区域精细化温度预报业务平台

介绍以宁夏中尺度数值模式温度预报为基础,以宁夏精细化预报系统温度预报产品为核心,结合自动气象站等多种资料,以图形方式显示、修改和制作宁夏各站逐时温度预报业务平台。该平台以宁夏各地区代表站与该地区其它站之间的回归方程的计算量为依据,在温度预报物理过程不变的情况下,通过修改曲线的方式,完成对大数据量温度预报值的订正。该平台的建成,为制作高时间密度的预报提供了技术支撑。     

塔里木盆地吐木休克构造带断裂构造分析

吐木休克断裂位于塔里木盆地西部,是一条大型基底卷入型断裂构造带,构成塔里木盆地次级构造单元阿瓦提凹陷和巴楚断隆的分界。根据系统的地震资料解释,可以将吐木休克断裂分为西段、中段和东段3部分,各段构造特征有所差异。西段,为单一的基底卷入型高角度逆冲断层,倾向巴楚断隆; 中段,除倾向巴楚断隆的主冲断层外,倾向相反的反冲断层越来越清晰,楔状冲断构造的轮廓逐渐显现出来。同时,在断层上盘还发育第四纪正断层; 东段,倾向巴楚断隆的主冲断层,向上断至中寒武统,未断开中寒武统以上的地层,其冲断位移量完全为倾向阿瓦提凹陷的反冲断层所吸收,形成典型的楔状冲断构造。根据地震资料解释,认为吐木休克断裂带主要存在两期断裂构造:深部高角度基底卷入型逆冲断裂带和其上叠加的浅部正断层。前者形成于库车组沉积前,在库车组沉积期间持续活动,并在新近纪晚期定型; 后者是本次研究首次发现的,形成于第四纪早中期,仅发育在吐木休克断裂带的中部。     

塔克拉玛干沙漠和田河西侧胡杨沙堆的形态特征及空间分布格局

胡杨沙堆是风沙流遇到胡杨干扰,沙物质堆积而形成的一种风积地貌类型。在风沙地貌领域,对胡杨沙堆的研究几乎空白。和田河西侧、麻扎塔格山以南的塔克拉玛干沙漠中分布有大量胡杨沙堆。基于野外RTK测量数据,利用GIS和统计手段,对胡杨沙堆进行信息提取与统计,定量分析了和田河西侧10个样方内胡杨沙堆的形态参数及沙堆空间分布格局。结果表明:1)沙堆形态不规则,形态参数空间差异显著,南北向形态参数均值变化较东西向稳定; 2)样方内沙堆形态参数间有良好的相关性,大部分沙堆处于发育阶段; 3)沙堆分布较稀疏,自西向东沙堆分布密度逐渐增大,从南到北为减小-增大-减小的变化趋势,总体上南部密度大于北部,东部密度大于西部; 4)10个样方沙堆与特定距离的随机分布差异性较小,整体上为离散分布,但东部较西部、北部较南部有小部分区域聚集分布。     

The Effects of Line-Wing Cutoff in LBL Integration on Radiation Calculations

There are three basic methods in radiative transfer calculations, i.e., line-by-line (LBL) integration, correlated k-distribution method, and band model. The LBL integration is the most accurate of all, in which, there are two quadrature algorithms named in this paper as integration by lines and by sampling "points when calculating atmospheric transmittance in the considered wavenumber region. Because the LBL integration is the most expensive of all, it is necessary and important to save calculation time but increase calculation speed when it is put into use in the daily operation in atmospheric remote sensing and atmospheric sounding. A simplified LBL method is given in this paper on the basis of integration by lines, which increases computational speed greatly with keeping the same accuracy. Then, we discuss the effects of different cutoff schemes on atmospheric absorption coefficient, transmittance, and cooling rate under both of accurate and simplified LBL methods in detail. There are four cutoff schemes described in this paper, i.e., CUTOFFs 1, 2, 3, and 4. It is shown by this numerical study that the way to cut off spectral line-wing has a great effect on the accuracy and speed of radiative calculations. The relative errors of the calculated absorption coefficients for CUTOFF 2 are the largest under different pressures, while for CUTOFF 1, they are less than 2% at most of sampling points and for CUTOFFs 3 or 4, they are ahnost less than 5% in the calculated spectral region, however, the calculation time is reduced greatly. We find in this study that the transmittance in the lower atmosphere is not sensitive to different LBL methods and different cutoff schemes. Whereas for the higher atmosphere, the differences of transmittance results between CUTOFF 2 and each of other three cutoff schemes are the biggest of all no matter for the accurate LBL or for the simplified LBL integrations. By comparison, the best and optimized cutoff scheme is given in this paper finally.     

Geochemistry of the high-Mg andesites at Zhangwu, western Liaoning: Implication for delamination of newly formed lower crust

Ten volcanic samples at Zhangwu,western Liaoning Province,North China were selected for a sys-tematic geochemical,mineralogical and geochronological study,which provides an opportunity to ex-plore the interaction between the continental crust and mantle beneath the north margin of the North China craton.Except one basalt sample(SiO2= 50.23%),the other nine samples are andesitic with SiO2 contents ranging from 53% to 59%.They have relatively high MgO(3.4%―6.1%,Mg#=50―64) and Ni and Cr contents(Ni 27×10?6―197×10?6,Cr 51×10?6―478×10?6).Other geochemical characteristics of Zhangwu high-Mg andesites(HMAs) include strong fractionation of light rare earth elements(LREE) from heavy rare earth elements(HREE),and Sr from Y,with La/Yb greater than 15,and high Sr/Y(34― 115).Zircons of andesite YX270 yield three age groups with no Precambrian age,which precludes ori-gin of the Zhangwu HMAs from the partial melting of the Precambrian crust.The oldest age group peaking at 253 Ma is interpreted to represent the collision of the Siberia block and the North China block,resulting in formation of the Central Asian orogenic belt by closure of the Mongol-Okhotsk Ocean.The intermediate age group corresponds to the basalt underplating which caused the wide-spread coeval granitoids in the North China craton with a peak 206Pb/238U age of 172 Ma.The youngest age group gives a 206Pb/238U age of 126±2 Ma,which is interpreted as the eruption age of the Zhangwu HMAs.The high 87Sr/86Sri(126 Ma)>0.706 and low εNd(t)= ?6.36―?13.99 of the Zhangwu HMAs are distinct from slab melts.The common presence of reversely zoned clinopyroxene phenocrysts in the Zhangwu HMAs argues against the origin of the Zhangwu HMAs either from melting of the water saturated mantle or melting of the lower crust.In light of the evidence mentioned above,the envisaged scenario for the formation of the Zhangwu HMAs is related to the basaltic underplating at the base of the crust,which led to the thickening of the lower crust and formation of lower crustal eclogite,followed by foundering of the eclogitic lower crust into the asthenosphere.The foundered eclogite then melted and the resul-tant melts interacted with surrounding peridotite during their upward transport,which finally produced the high-Mg andesites.This well explains the high-Mg adakitic characters and absence of ancient in-herited zircon in the Zhangwu lavas.