Prediction of nonstationary climatic series

Summary Most of the stochastic prediction methods are developed for stationary time series. However, many climatic series show clear evidence of non-stationarity. In such cases, methods based on the stationarity assumptions would be inappropriate. Alternative methods such as those based on stochastic approximation are preferable in these cases because they are based on adaptive learning principles. These methods have not been applied and their suitability not tested with nonstationary climatic time series.In the stochastic approximation method, the deterministic component of a nonstationary time series is estimated by first predicting the two steps ahead value of a time series. The two steps-ahead forecast may involve a term characterizing the trend in the time series. The two steps-ahead predictor is corrected to obtain the one step ahead prediction by using a gain sequence.The dynamic stochastic approximation method is used herein to predict non-stationary climatic time series. Daily minimum temperature series at West Lafayette, Indiana, U.S.A. and seasonal temperature and precipitation series at Evansville, Indiana, U.S.A. are used in the study. For data trends, an improved dynamic stochastic approximation method, called the modified dynamic stochastic approximation method gives more accurate predictions. If the method is used for seasonal data, then it can be used to track the time varying mean value.With 6 Figures     

Estimation of surface heat and momentum fluxes using the flux-variance method above uniform and non-uniform terrain

Eddy-correlation measurements above an uneven-aged forest, a uniform-irrigated bare soil field, and within a grass-covered forest clearing were used to investigate the usefulness of the fluxvariance method above uniform and non-uniform terrain. For this purpose, the Monin and Obukhov (1954) variance similarity functions were compared with direct measurements. Such comparisons were in close agreement for momentum and heat but not for water vapor. Deviations between measured and predicted similarity functions for water vapor were attributed to three factors: 1) the active role of temperature in surface-layer turbulence, 2) dissimilarity between sources and sinks of heat and water vapor at the ground surface, and 3) the non-uniformity in water vapor sources and sinks. It was demonstrated that the latter non-uniformity contributed to horizontal gradients that do not scale with the vertical flux. These three factors resulted in a turbulence regime that appeared more efficient in transporting heat than water vapor for the dynamic convective sublayer but not for the dynamic sublayer. The agreement between eddy-correlation measured and flux-variance predicted sensible heat flux was better than that for latent heat flux at all three sites. The flux-variance method systematically overestimated the latent heat flux when compared to eddy-correlation measurements. It was demonstrated that the non-uniformity in water vapor sources reduced the surface flux when compared to an equivalent uniform terrain subjected to identical shear stress, sensible heat flux, and atmospheric water vapor variance. Finally, the correlation between the temperature and water vapor fluctuations was related to the relative efficiency of surface-layer turbulence in removing heat and water vapor. These relations were used to assess critical assumptions in the derivation of the flux-variance formulation.     

Latent and sensible heat flux predictions from a uniform pine forest using surface renewal and flux variance methods

A surface renewal model that links organized eddy motion to the latent and sensible heat fluxes is tested with eddy correlation measurements carried out in a 13m tall uniform Loblolly pine plantation in Duke Forest, Durham, North Carolina. The surface renewal model is based on the occurance of ramp-like patterns in the scalar concentration measurements. To extract such ramp-like patterns from Eulerian scalar concentration measurements, a newly proposed time-frequency filtering scheme is developed and tested. The time-domain filtering is carried out using compactly-supported orthonormal wavelets in conjunction with the Universal Wavelet Thresholding approach of Donoho and Johnstone, while the frequency filtering is carried out by a band-pass sine filter centered around the ramp-occurrence frequency as proposed by other studies. The method was separately tested for heat and water vapour with good agreement between eddy correlation flux measurements and model predictions. The usefulness of the flux-variance method to predict sensible and latent heat fluxes is also considered. Our measurements suggest that the simple flux-variance method reproduces the measured heat and momentum fluxes despite the fact that the variances were measured within the roughness sublayer and not in the surface layer. Central to the predictions of water vapour fluxes using the flux-variance approach is the similarity between heat and water vapour transport by the turbulent air flow. This assumption is also investigated for this uniform forest terrain.     

Efficiency of excavations with buttress walls in reducing the deflection of the diaphragm wall

Installation of buttress walls against diaphragm walls has been used as an alternative measure for the protection of adjacent buildings during excavation, but their mechanism in reducing movements has not yet been fully understood. This study performs three-dimensional finite element analyses of two excavation case histories, one in clay with T-shape buttress walls and another in dominant sand with rectangular buttress walls, to establish analysis model. Then, a series of parametric study were performed by varying soil types, types and length of buttress walls based on the above-mentioned excavations. Results show that the mechanism of buttress walls in reducing wall deflections mainly came from the frictional resistance between the side surface of buttress wall and adjacent soil rather than from the combined bending stiffness from diaphragm and buttress walls. The buttress wall with a length <2.0 m had a poor effect in reducing the wall deflection because the soil adjacent to the buttress wall had almost the same amount of movement as the buttress wall, causing the frictional resistance little mobilized. Since the frictional resistance of buttress walls in a deep excavation has fully been mobilized prior to the final excavation depth, the efficiency of buttress walls in reducing the wall deflection in a deep excavation was much less than that in a shallow excavation. Rectangular shape of buttress walls was of a better effect than T-shape in the shallow excavation because frictional resistance between buttress walls and adjacent soil played a major role in reducing the wall deflection rather than bearing resistance of the flange. When the excavation went deeper, the difference in reducing the wall deflection between the R-shape and T-shape became small.     

NOTE ON THE GEOMORPHOLOGY OF THE NORTH SHENSI BASIN

The geology of the north Shensi basin has been studied to some detail bythe American geologists Fuller,Clapp and others~1 in an oil exploration partysent out in 1914 under the joint auspices of the Chinese National Oil Administra-     

Effects of toxic dinoflagellate Alexandrium tamarense on the energy budgets and growth of two marine bivalves

Harmful algal blooms (HAB) may impose a serious threat to aquatic lives and human health. We determined the effects of a toxic dinoflagellate Alexandrium tamarense (clone ATCIO1, isolated from Hong Kong coastal waters) on the energy budget, quantified as scope for growth (SFG), and the growth rate of the manila clam Ruditapes philippinarum and the green-lipped mussel Perna viridis. To quantify the SFG, clams and mussels were dosed with different amounts of toxic A. tamarense for 6 days, resulting in different toxin burdens in the tissues. Clearance rate, absorption efficiency, and respiration rate were subsequently measured in these toxin containing bivalves. Clearance rate significantly declined at the highest toxin burden in the clams only, while there was no significant difference in the clearance rate among different treatments for the mussels. The respiration rate of either bivalve was not significantly affected by toxin accumulation in the tissues. In contrast, the absorption efficiency of both clams and mussels decreased, in a concentration-dependent manner for mussels but not for clams, when the tissue accumulated the toxins. With an increase in paralytic shellfish poisoning (PSP) toxin burden, SFG in both clams and mussels was significantly reduced, primarily because of the decrease of absorption efficiency. The growth rate of juvenile clam R. philippinarum, measured as an increment in tissue dry weight over a 15 d exposure period, was significantly lower during their feeding on toxic dinoflagellate than the growth rate of clams feeding on the diatom Thalassiosira pseudonana. The juvenile mussel P. viridis, however, exhibited similar growth rates after feeding on the toxic dinoflagellates and the nontoxic diatom. This study showed that SFG can provide a sensitive and integrated measure of the effect of HAB on the physiology of bivalves. Clam R. philippinarum may be more sensitive, in terms of their energy budget, to PSP toxin accumulation than the mussel P. viridis.     

北秦岭西段冥古宙锆石(4.1～3.9Ga)年代学新进展

2007年王洪亮等报道在北秦岭西段火山岩中获得一粒年龄为4079±5Ma的冥古宙捕虏锆石。之后,对这一发现开展了深入的调查研究,我们除利用SHIMP技术方法对原4079Ma的锆石进行验证外,新获得了两粒~(207)Pb/~(206)Pb年龄为4007±29Ma和3908±45Ma捕获的变质成因锆石,表明早在4.0Ga已经有变质作用的发生,这或许说明在冥古宙时期地球已经具有相当规模和厚度的地壳。同时开展的岩石学研究表明,蕴含古老锆石的母岩属于火山碎屑熔岩类而不是火山熔岩。     

火山岩风化壳储层发育模式——以三塘湖盆地马朗凹陷石炭系火山岩为例

中国的火山岩油气勘探近年来进展非常快,并不断在许多盆地发现了优质火山岩储层,其中风化壳型储层作为非常重要的火山岩储集体类型而倍受重视。三塘湖盆地马朗凹陷石炭系风化壳型储层储集空间以溶蚀孔洞缝为主,储层物性非常好。通过火山岩油气勘探中的野外露头观察、钻井取心、镜下薄片鉴定,及主量元素、微量元素等分析化验资料,并结合火山岩岩石学特征和物性特点,初步建立了该区的风化壳储层的发育模式,将火山岩风化壳储层在垂向上自上而下划分为五个带: ①最终分解产物带; ②水解带; ③淋滤带; ④崩解带; ⑤未风化带(母岩)。淋滤带储集物性最好,该区风化淋滤是改善储层的关键。     

The effect of the variation of river water levels on the estimation of groundwater recharge in the Hsinhuwei River,Taiwan

Land subsidence is a serious problem in Taiwan’s Yunlin area due to groundwater overpumping. There are safety risks in the high-speed railway structures in the areas of Siluo, Huwei, Tuku, and Yuanchang towns that run from north to south in the Yunlin area. Therefore, it is important to increase the groundwater recharge and to remedy the land subsidence in this area. The purpose of this study is to use the stream-flow estimation model (SF) and the groundwater flow numerical software MODFLOW (MF) to estimate the stream infiltration with consideration to the variation of the river water level in the Hsinhuwei River. The Ferris analytical model (FA) and MF are used to estimate the increased stream infiltration after the water level of the river rises. The hydraulic parameters required for each model are obtained from field observations and laboratory experiments. The results indicate that the assessment of the stream infiltration obtained through the SF and MF models are 264.2 × 10⁴ and 170.9 × 10⁴ m³/year, respectively. When the river water level increases by about 2.5 m, the annual stream infiltration obtained through the FA and MF models significantly increases by 31.6 × 10⁴ and 26.4 × 10⁴ m³/year, respectively. Taken together, the stream storages estimated using these two models indicate that an increasing efficiency of groundwater recharge is within the range of 10.0–18.5%.     

Influential input classification in probabilistic multimedia models

 Monte Carlo analysis is a statistical simulation method that is often used to assess and quantify the outcome variance in complex environmental fate and effects models. Total outcome variance of these models is a function of (1) the variance (uncertainty and/or variability) associated with each model input and (2) the sensitivity of the model outcome to changes in the inputs. To propagate variance through a model using Monte Carlo techniques, each variable must be assigned a probability distribution. The validity of these distributions directly influences the accuracy and reliability of the model outcome. To efficiently allocate resources for constructing distributions one should first identify the most influential set of variables in the model. Although existing sensitivity and uncertainty analysis methods can provide a relative ranking of the importance of model inputs, they fail to identify the minimum set of stochastic inputs necessary to sufficiently characterize the outcome variance. In this paper, we describe and demonstrate a novel sensitivity/uncertainty analysis method for assessing the importance of each variable in a multimedia environmental fate model. Our analyses show that for a given scenario, a relatively small number of input variables influence the central tendency of the model and an even smaller set determines the spread of the outcome distribution. For each input, the level of influence depends on the scenario under consideration. This information is useful for developing site specific models and improving our understanding of the processes that have the greatest influence on the variance in outcomes from multimedia models.