This study measures the reaction rate of dolomite and aragonite (calcite) into Mg-calcite at 800, 850, and 900°C and 1.6 GPa. The dry synthetic dolomite-aragonite aggregate transformed very rapidly into dolomite-calcite polycrystalline aggregate while Mg-calcites formed at a relatively slow rate, becoming progressively richer in Mg with run time. We modeled the reaction progress semi-empirically by the first-order rate law. The temperature dependence of the overall transport rate of MgCO3 into calcite can be described by the kinetic parameters (E?=?231.7 kJ/mol and Ao?=?22.69 h?1). Extrapolation using the Arrhenius equation to the conditions during exhumation of UHPM rocks indicates that the reaction of dolomite with aragonite into Mg-saturated calcite can be completed as the P-T path enters the Mg-calcite stability field in a geologically short time period (<1 Ky). On the other hand, the extrapolation of the rate to prograde metamorphic conditions reveals that the Mg-calcite formed from dolomitic marble in the absence of metamorphic fluid may not reach Mg-saturation until temperatures corresponding to high-grade metamorphism (e.g., >340°C and >10 My). SEM-EDS analysis of individual calcite grains shows compositional gradients of Mg in the calcite grains. The Mg-Ca inter-diffusion coefficient at 850°C is around 1.68?×?10?14 m2/sec if diffusion is the major control of the reaction. The calculated closure temperatures for Ca-Mg inter-diffusion as a function of cooling rate and grain size reveal that Ca/Mg resetting in calcite in a dry polycrystalline carbonate aggregate (with grain size around 1 mm) may not occur at temperatures below 480°C at a geological cooling rate around 10°C/My, unless other processes, such as short-circuit interdiffusion along grain boundaries and dislocations, are involved. 相似文献
Hurricane surge events have caused devastating damage in active-hurricane areas all over the world. The ability to predict surge elevations and to use this information for damage estimation is fundamental for saving lives and protecting property. In this study, we developed a framework for evaluating hurricane flood risk and identifying areas that are more prone to them. The approach is based on the joint probability method with optimal sampling (JPM-OS) using surge response functions (SRFs) (JPM-OS-SRF). Derived from a discrete set of high-fidelity storm surge simulations, SRFs are non-dimensional, physics-based empirical equations with an algebraic form, used to rapidly estimate surge as a function of hurricane parameters (i.e., central pressure, radius, forward speed, approach angle and landfall location). The advantage of an SRF-based approach is that a continuum of storm scenarios can be efficiently evaluated and used to estimate continuous probability density functions for surge extremes, producing more statistically stable surge hazard assessments without adding measurably to epistemic uncertainty. SRFs were developed along the coastline and then used to estimate maximum surge elevations with respect to a set of hurricane parameters. Integrating information such as ground elevation, property value and population with the JPM-OS-SRF allows quantification of storm surge-induced hazard impacts over the continuum of storm possibilities, yielding a framework to create the following risk-based products, which can be used to assist in hurricane hazard management and decision making: (1) expected annual loss maps; (2) flood damage versus return period relationships; and (3) affected business (e.g., number of business, number of employees) versus return period relationships. By employing several simplifying assumptions, the framework is demonstrated at three northern Gulf of Mexico study sites exhibiting similar surge hazard exposure. The framework results reveal Gulfport, MS, USA is at relatively more risk of economic loss than Corpus Christi, TX, USA, and Panama City, FL, USA. Note that economic processes are complex and very interrelated to most other human activities. Our intention here is to present a methodology to quantify the flood damage (i.e., infrastructure economic loss, number of businesses affected, number of employees in these affected businesses and sales volume in these affected businesses) but not to discuss the complex interactions of these damages with other economic activities and recovery plans.
The horizontal-to-vertical spectral ratio has become popular in studies of the site effect and the determination of the predominant period of a site. 相似文献
This paper proposes a multiscale flow and transport model which can be used in three-dimensional fractal random fields. The
fractal random field effectively describes a field with a high degree of variability to satisfy the one-point statistics of
Levy-stable distribution and the two-point statistics of fractional Levy motion (fLm). To overcome the difficulty of using
infinite variance of Levy-stable distribution and to provide the physical meaning of a finite domain in real space, truncated
power variograms are utilized for the fLm fields. The fLm model is general in the sense that both stationary and commonly
used fractional Brownian motion (fBm) models are its special cases. When the upper cutoff of the truncated power variogram
is close to the lower cutoff, the stationary model is well approximated. The commonly used fBm model is recovered when the
Levy index of fLm is 2. Flow and solute transport were analyzed using the first-order perturbation method. Mean velocity,
velocity covariance, and effective hydraulic conductivity in a three-dimensional fractal random field were derived. Analytical
results for particle displacement covariance and macrodispersion coefficients are also presented. The results show that the
plume in an fLm field moves slower at early time and has more significant long-tailing behavior at late time than in fBm or
stationary exponential fields. The proposed fractal transport model has broader applications than those of stationary and
fBm models. Flow and solute transport can be simulated for various scenarios by adjusting the Levy index and cutoffs of fLm
to yield more accurate modeling results. 相似文献
We conducted a comprehensive 40Ar/39Ar geochronological study of the Jiali and Gaoligong shear zones to obtain a better understanding of crustal deformation and tectonic evolution around the Eastern Himalayan Syntaxis (EHS). The new age data reveal that the main phase of deformation in the Jiali and Gaoligong shear zones occurred from 22 to 11 Ma and from 18 to 13 Ma, respectively. Structural data collected during this study indicate that the Jiali shear zone underwent a change in shear sense from sinistral to dextral during its movement history. Based on a comparison with the deformation histories of other major shear zones in the region, we argue that the initial sinistral motion recorded by the Jiali shear zone was coincident with that of the Ailao Shan–Red River shear zone, which marked the northern boundary of the southeastward extrusion of the Indochina block during the Early Miocene. From the Middle Miocene (~18 Ma), the Jiali shear zone changed to dextral displacement, becoming linked with the dextral Gaoligong shear zone that developed as a consequence of continued northward indentation of the Indian continent into Asia. Since this time, the Jiali and Gaoligong shear zones have been united, defining the southwestern boundary of the EHS during clockwise rotation of the eastward-extruding Tibetan block, as revealed by recent GPS data. The temporal change in regional deformation pattern from southeastward block extrusion to clockwise rotation of crustal fragments may have played an important role in the development of the eastern Himalayan drainage system around the EHS. 相似文献
Abstract This paper explores the dynamics behind the changing regimes of urban renewal and its social impacts in Taiwan. Before the 1980s, the state was willing to solely shoulder the job of urban renewal with a wholly supportive financial budget and land appropriation law, while in the 1990s it became financially overburdened due to its renewal policy. Around the year 2000, the state turned towards promoting urban regeneration as a key business model. Through this historical exposition, the Taiwanese story of state transformation in urban renewal policy brings two issues to the fore. The first issue is the learning process concerning the policy of public-private partnership (PPP) initiatives. Trans-border policy mobility connects and constitutes cities, such as Taipei, with other places, such as London, through visits and seminars attended by policy makers and experts. However, policy transferred from abroad is “localized” in the learning process and used to prioritize the regeneration of public lands in the urban area. The PPP model is transformed in the face of domestic political struggles. The second issue is the social exclusion as a result of property-led regeneration. Rather than playing the role of an impartial institutional moderator, the state privileged landowners and developers and sacrificed the rights of tenants to stay put. By doing so, the state secures political support from landowner-cum-citizens and initiates a political culture of property in which local citizenship is predicated on ownership. 相似文献
This study presents an extended framework for the analysis of economic effects of natural disaster risk management. It also attempts to define and evaluate the optimal insurance arrangements. A model, the economic utility constrained-maximization model, is proposed. The purpose of this study is to establish a strategy for determining an insurance and risk control plan in which consideration is given to balancing the economic effects (e.g., decrease in costs due to damage) by disaster mitigation. Furthermore, these values are compared with risk control actions for purposes of prioritization, to provide data to help evaluate the benefit of each risk control action. Disaster insurance policy premiums in contrast are based on actuarial data taken from situations in which risk control measures are not employed. This can make such contracts unfair to responsible enterprise managers who must take risk control measures. This represents an unfair aspect of insurance policies. Enterprise managers should be able to determine the optimum arrangement between natural disaster risk control and insurance given their budget limitations. The optimal strategies aim at the best applicability and balance between risk control and insurance capability for the enterprise manager. Risk control measures can generate several risk control options for enterprise managers. Premium discounts by insurers are given in this model. 相似文献
Elicitation methods are used in decision making with respect to risk hazards to allow a researcher to infer the subjective utilities of outcomes from the observed preferences of an individual. A questionnaire method is presented, in this study, which takes into account the inevitable distortion of preferences by random errors and minimizes the effect of such errors. Under mild assumptions, the method for eliciting the utilities of many outcomes is a three-stage procedure. First, the questionnaire is utilized to elicit responses from which a subjective score is defined. Second, individual risk factors are discussed. Finally, the regression model presents individual risk preferences given the overall organizational risk culture, risk management policy, risk identification, and risk analysis. This paper addresses how company managers face risk and their tolerance of risk with respect to risk management. 相似文献
Natural disaster risk, a long-time concern in the insurance industry, is increasingly recognized as a present danger in the
business strategies of risk control and enterprise management agencies. Floods and earthquakes can cause massive loss of life
and infrastructure, resulting in business interruption and heavy casualties. Many of the short-term developmental strategies
employed throughout the world have only served to exacerbate the impact of natural disasters. Therefore, this study presents
a review of formal methods that are commonly used in risk and uncertainty analysis in planning and concludes with a critical
assessment of the advantages and disadvantages of the different priority setting methods. Our focus is a preliminary proposal
for developing an efficient probabilistic approach to facilitate design optimization that involves probabilistic constraints. 相似文献