Upscaling Permeability Measurements Within Complex Heterolithic Tidal Sandstones

We investigate numerically the effect of sample volume on the effective single-phase permeability of heterolithic tidal sandstones, using three-dimensional models reconstructed directly from large rock specimens measuring 45 × 30 × 15 cm. We find that both individual and averaged effective permeability values vary as a function of sample volume, which indicates that permeability data obtained from core-plugs will not be representative at the scale of a reservoir model grid-block regardless of the number of measurements taken. However, the error introduced by averaged data may be minimized using the appropriate averaging scheme for a given facies type and flow direction.     

Variations in eelgrass (<Emphasis Type="Italic">Zostera marina</Emphasis> L.) morphology and internal nutrient composition as influenced by increased temperature and water column nitrate

In an experimental mesocosm system, we evaluated changes in morphology and tissue nutrient content (carbon [C], nitrogen [N], phosphorus [P]) of eelgrass (Zostera marina L.) as influenced by increased temperature and nitrate. During the late summer-fall growing season (14 weeks, August through mid-November), control plants were compared to plants grown at elevated temperatures (3°C to 4°C above ambient, based on 20-yr weekly means) and elevated water column nitrate enrichment (8 μM NO₃ ⁻, pulsed daily). Both increased temperature and increased nitrate led to declines in shoot density (by 40% and 48% for nitrate and temperature treatments, respectively), as well as decreased leaf and root production. High temperature promoted increased total C content of leaf tissues, whereas high nitrate increased the percentage of N in belowground tissues and depressed the C∶N ratio in aboveground tissues. The data indicated that increases in nitrate or temperature can significantly reduce the size ofZ. marine shoots and can also alter the internal C and N content. This reduction was not associated with significant increases in light-attenuating algae as we controlled epiphytic growth, so we suggest that a direct physiological mechanism or other mechanism was involved.     

MODFLOW 2000 head uncertainty,a first-order second moment method

A computationally efficient method to estimate the variance and covariance in piezometric head results computed through MODFLOW 2000 using a first-order second moment (FOSM) approach is presented. This methodology employs a first-order Taylor series expansion to combine model sensitivity with uncertainty in geologic data. MODFLOW 2000 is used to calculate both the ground water head and the sensitivity of head to changes in input data. From a limited number of samples, geologic data are extrapolated and their associated uncertainties are computed through a conditional probability calculation. Combining the spatially related sensitivity and input uncertainty produces the variance-covariance matrix, the diagonal of which is used to yield the standard deviation in MODFLOW 2000 head. The variance in piezometric head can be used for calibrating the model, estimating confidence intervals, directing exploration, and evaluating the reliability of a design. A case study illustrates the approach, where aquifer transmissivity is the spatially related uncertain geologic input data. The FOSM methodology is shown to be applicable for calculating output uncertainty for (1) spatially related input and output data, and (2) multiple input parameters (transmissivity and recharge).     

Effects of seawater carbonate ion concentration and temperature on shell U, Mg, and Sr in cultured planktonic foraminifera

We investigate the sensitivity of U/Ca, Mg/Ca, and Sr/Ca to changes in seawater [CO₃²⁻] and temperature in calcite produced by the two planktonic foraminifera species, Orbulina universa and Globigerina bulloides, in laboratory culture experiments. Our results demonstrate that at constant temperature, U/Ca in O. universa decreases by 25 ± 7% per 100 μmol [CO₃²⁻] kg⁻¹, as seawater [CO₃²⁻] increases from 110 to 470 μmol kg⁻¹. Results from G. bulloides suggest a similar relationship, but U/Ca is consistently offset by ∼+40% at the same environmental [CO₃²⁻]. In O. universa, U/Ca is insensitive to temperature between 15°C and 25°C. Applying the O. universa relationship to three U/Ca records from a related species, Globigerinoides sacculifer, we estimate that Caribbean and tropical Atlantic [CO₃²⁻] was 110 ± 70 μmol kg⁻¹ and 80 ± 40 μmol kg⁻¹ higher, respectively, during the last glacial period relative to the Holocene. This result is consistent with estimates of the glacial-interglacial change in surface water [CO₃²⁻] based on both modeling and on boron isotope pH estimates. In settings where the addition of U by diagenetic processes is not a factor, down-core records of foraminiferal U/Ca have potential to provide information about changes in the ocean’s carbonate concentration.Below ambient pH (pH < 8.2), Mg/Ca decreased by 7 ± 5% (O. universa) to 16 ± 6% (G. bulloides) per 0.1 unit increase in pH. Above ambient pH, the change in Mg/Ca was not significant for either species. This result suggests that Mg/Ca-based paleotemperature estimates for the Quaternary, during which surface-ocean pH has been at or above modern levels, have not been biased by variations in surface-water pH. Sr/Ca increased linearly by 1.6 ± 0.4% per 0.1 unit increase in pH. Shell Mg/Ca increased exponentially with temperature in O. universa, where Mg/Ca = 0.85 exp (0.096*T), whereas the change in Sr/Ca with temperature was within the reproducibility of replicate measurements.     

Spatial-temporal rainfall modelling for flood risk estimation

Some recent developments in the stochastic modelling of single site and spatial rainfall are summarised. Alternative single site models based on Poisson cluster processes are introduced, fitting methods are discussed, and performance is compared for representative UK hourly data. The representation of sub-hourly rainfall is discussed, and results from a temporal disaggregation scheme are presented. Extension of the Poisson process methods to spatial-temporal rainfall, using radar data, is reported. Current methods assume spatial and temporal stationarity; work in progress seeks to relax these restrictions. Unlike radar data, long sequences of daily raingauge data are commonly available, and the use of generalized linear models (GLMs) (which can represent both temporal and spatial non-stationarity) to represent the spatial structure of daily rainfall based on raingauge data is illustrated for a network in the North of England. For flood simulation, disaggregation of daily rainfall is required. A relatively simple methodology is described, in which a single site Poisson process model provides hourly sequences, conditioned on the observed or GLM-simulated daily data. As a first step, complete spatial dependence is assumed. Results from the River Lee catchment, near London, are promising. A relatively comprehensive set of methodologies is thus provided for hydrological application.     

Radiometric ages of the Fire Clay tonstein [Pennsylvanian (Upper Carboniferous), Westphalian, Duckmantian]: A comparison of U–Pb zircon single-crystal ages and Ar/Ar sanidine single-crystal plateau ages

The Fire Clay tonstein [Pennsylvanian (Upper Carboniferous), Westphalian Series, Duckmantian Stage]–a kaolinized, volcanic-ash deposit occurring in Kentucky, West Virginia, Tennessee, and Virginia–is the most widespread bed in the Middle Pennsylvanian of the central Appalachian basin, USA. A concordant single-crystal U–Pb zircon datum for this tonstein gives a ²⁰⁶Pb/²³⁸U age of 314.6 ± 0.9 Ma (2σ). This age is in approximate agreement with a mean sanidine plateau age of 311.5 ± 1.3 Ma (1σ, n = 11) for the Fire Clay tonstein. The difference between the two ages may be due to bias between the ⁴⁰K and ²³⁸U decay constants and other factors. The age of the Fire Clay tonstein has important implications for Duckmantian Stage (Westphalian Series) sedimentation rates, correlations with the Westphalian Series of Europe, Middle Pennsylvanian volcanic events, and the late Paleozoic time scale.     

Long-term investigation of benthic fauna and the influence of treated ballast water disposal in Port Valdez,Alaska

Benthic faunal structure and hydrocarbon concentrations in sediments were examined annually for 10 years (1989-1998) in Port Valdez, Alaska, where a near-bottom permitted discharge of treated tanker ballast waters containing residual petroleum has occurred since 1977. Measured concentrations of hydrocarbons in sediments near the discharge showed detectable increases in concentration, but on only one occasion were these increases either to levels exceeding ecotoxicological thresholds (Effects-Range Low, ER-L) or associated with alterations in the benthic community. Changes in faunal structure indicating disturbance were observed at one station near the discharge from 1995 to 1997 and were apparent as increased numbers of opportunistic taxa and anomalous trends in abundance and diversity. Minimum-effect (ME) hypotheses provided evidence of negligible to small effects on benthic infauna from disposal of treated ballast water. ME hypotheses have the potential to assist both researchers and managers by providing a tool to relate scientific results to ecological importance and decision criteria.     

Kalman filtering in groundwater flow modelling: problems and prospects

The popularity of applying filtering theory in the environmental and hydrological sciences passed its first climax in the 1970s. Like so many other new mathematical methods it was simply the fashion at the time. The study of groundwater systems was not immune to this fashion, but neither was it by any means a prominent area of application. The spatial-temporal characteristics of groundwater flow are customarily described by analytical or, more frequently, numerical, physics-based models. Consequently, the state-space representations associated with filtering must be of a high order, with an immediately apparent computational over-burden. And therein lies part of the reason for the but modest interest there has been in applying Kalman filtering to groundwater systems, as reviewed critically in this paper. Filtering theory may be used to address a variety of problems, such as: state estimation and reconstruction, parameter estimation (including the study of uncertainty and its propagation), combined state-parameter estimation, input estimation, estimation of the variance-covariance properties of stochastic disturbances, the design of observation networks, and the analysis of parameter identifiability. A large proportion of previous studies has dealt with the problem of parameter estimation in one form or another. This may well not remain the focus of attention in the future. Instead, filtering theory may find wider application in the context of data assimilation, that is, in reconstructing fields of flow and the migration of sub-surface contaminant plumes from relatively sparse observations. Received: October 27, 1997