Flash flood susceptibility mapping using a novel deep learning model based on deep belief network,back propagation and genetic algorithm

Flash floods are responsible for loss of life and considerable property damage in many countries.Flood susceptibility maps contribute to flood risk reduction in areas that are prone to this hazard if appropriately used by landuse planners and emergency managers.The main objective of this study is to prepare an accurate flood susceptibility map for the Haraz watershed in Iran using a novel modeling approach(DBPGA) based on Deep Belief Network(DBN) with Back Propagation(BP) algorithm optimized by the Genetic Algorithm(GA).For this task, a database comprising ten conditioning factors and 194 flood locations was created using the One-R Attribute Evaluation(ORAE) technique.Various well-known machine learning and optimization algorithms were used as benchmarks to compare the prediction accuracy of the proposed model.Statistical metrics include sensitivity,specificity accuracy, root mean square error(RMSE), and area under the receiver operatic characteristic curve(AUC) were used to assess the validity of the proposed model.The result shows that the proposed model has the highest goodness-of-fit(AUC = 0.989) and prediction accuracy(AUC = 0.985), and based on the validation dataset it outperforms benchmark models including LR(0.885), LMT(0.934), BLR(0.936), ADT(0.976), NBT(0.974), REPTree(0.811), ANFIS-BAT(0.944), ANFIS-CA(0.921), ANFIS-IWO(0.939), ANFIS-ICA(0.947), and ANFIS-FA(0.917).We conclude that the DBPGA model is an excellent alternative tool for predicting flash flood susceptibility for other regions prone to flash floods.     

The structure and evolution of the coastal migrant fishery of Kenya

The current study was carried out over a period of one year to characterise the coastal migrant fishery of Kenya. The study looked at gears and vessels used, and ownership, demographic factors including ages of the fishers and family sizes, migrant activity and resource conservation at two main fishing villages in Kenya; Vanga and Mayungu in the south and north coasts, straddling at 4.663°S and 39.215°E and 3.214°S and 40.135°E respectively. Further, the fishers were categorised with regard to fishing, gear and vessel operation and trade, and evolution upon entry into the fishery was also assessed in order to define fisher-stake in the fishery for resource management and conservation planning. Structured questionnaires were used to interview the fishers, and data and information recorded from 1018 fishers during the survey. Migrants accounted for over 63% of the fishers in the two study sites, with majority of the fishers lying in the 15–45 year age bracket. Dependence level averages at 4–6 person families per fisher. Entry to the fishery was mainly at seamen level, progressing to fishermen and finally to fish dealers (tajiris), with the latter holding >62% capital in the fishery. Resource management in the fishery was low and only 10% of the fishers were active participants in marine conservation and community beach management issues. Fisher migrations were mainly monsoon season-linked (>58%) although social factors such as family location determined to a great extent the expanse of the migrations. The revival of fisheries cooperatives and active participation in community resource management and conservation groups is envisaged as the key to the sustainability of both the marine resources and the economies associated with this high mobility, cross-border fishery.     

Rice research for food security and sustainable agricultural development in Asia: Achievements and future challenges

Rice is the major staple food of Asia, and an important source of employment and income in rural areas, particularly in low-income countries. Research has contributed significantly in achieving food security by increasing the yield potential of rice in irrigated systems, reducing the crop maturity period and achieving yield stability by developing resistance against major insects and diseases in the modern high-yielding varieties. Poverty is, however, still extensive in fragile rainfed rice ecosystems where rice yield has remained low, as scientists have yet to develop high-yielding varieties resistant to abiotic stresses and problem soils. Rice production needs to be increased by another 70% over the next 30 years to meet growing food needs. This has to be achieved with less land, less water, and less labor to accommodate the demand for these inputs from the expanding nonagricultural sectors. The challenge to the rice research community is to make further shifts in yield potential of rice for the irrigated systems, to close the yield gaps in the rainfed systems through developing resistance of high yielding varieties to abiotic stresses, and greater understanding of the interactions between genotypes and environment, developing durable resistance against pests and diseases to reduce farmers' dependence on harmful agrochemicals, and to increase efficiency in the use of water, labor and fertilizers. As further intensification of rice cultivation is inevitable, scientists must understand the negative environmental side-effects of increasing rice productivity, to develop appropriate mitigation options.     

Determination of strain from stretched belemnites

Belemnites are valuable strain markers and can be used to determine the elongation that has been suffered by the matrix in which they are situated. Experiments simulating the development of stretched belemnites have been performed to verify their deformation history. The analysis of the experimental results is used in the interpretation of field examples collected from Leytron, Valais, Switzerland. The amount of strain suffered by Leytron belemnites has been evaluated using the “least square” method and the result has been compared with that obtained by the “average elongation” method. The relationship between the final orientation of the whole specimen (θ′_b) and that of the fragments (θ′_f) demonstrates that the Leytron belemnites have suffered an irrotational type of deformation.     

Hydrochemistry and Classification of Groundwater Resources of Ishwardi Municipal Area,Pabna District,Bangladesh

The chemical property of groundwater depends largely on the mineralogical composition of the rocks through which the water has moved and the rate of movement and these characteristics of surface water depend on organic and inorganic reactions, industrial effluents, rainfall and temperature etc. The underground water tends to contain more dissolved materials than those in surface water because of their more intimate and longer contact with organic materials of soil and rock particles. The groundwater of the studied area is dominant of alkaline earth’s (Ca²⁺ and Mg²⁺) and weak acids (HCO₃ ⁻) which may be classified as Magnesium-Bicarbonate and Calcium Carbonate types. Genetically, the groundwater of the area belongs to both “Normal Chloride” “Normal Sulphate” and “Normal Carbonate” to “Super Carbonate” group. Based on EC, SAR and RC, the groundwater of the area varies from good–excellent quality for irrigation purposes with low alkali hazard and medium salinity hazard.     

Multi-factor impact analysis of agricultural production in Bangladesh with climate change

Diverse vulnerabilities of Bangladesh's agricultural sector in 16 sub-regions are assessed using experiments designed to investigate climate impact factors in isolation and in combination. Climate information from a suite of global climate models (GCMs) is used to drive models assessing the agricultural impact of changes in temperature, precipitation, carbon dioxide concentrations, river floods, and sea level rise for the 2040–2069 period in comparison to a historical baseline. Using the multi-factor impacts analysis framework developed in Yu et al. (2010), this study provides new sub-regional vulnerability analyses and quantifies key uncertainties in climate and production. Rice (aman, boro, and aus seasons) and wheat production are simulated in each sub-region using the biophysical Crop Environment REsource Synthesis (CERES) models. These simulations are then combined with the MIKE BASIN hydrologic model for river floods in the Ganges-Brahmaputra-Meghna (GBM) Basins, and the MIKE21 Two-Dimensional Estuary Model to determine coastal inundation under conditions of higher mean sea level. The impacts of each factor depend on GCM configurations, emissions pathways, sub-regions, and particular seasons and crops. Temperature increases generally reduce production across all scenarios. Precipitation changes can have either a positive or a negative impact, with a high degree of uncertainty across GCMs. Carbon dioxide impacts on crop production are positive and depend on the emissions pathway. Increasing river flood areas reduce production in affected sub-regions. Precipitation uncertainties from different GCMs and emissions scenarios are reduced when integrated across the large GBM Basins’ hydrology. Agriculture in Southern Bangladesh is severely affected by sea level rise even when cyclonic surges are not fully considered, with impacts increasing under the higher emissions scenario.     

An analysis of wave properties of isothermal plasma around Reissner-Nordström black hole

The 3+1 spacetime split is used in a preliminary investigation of waves propagating in a medium of isothermal plasma in the vicinity of event horizon of Reissner-Nordström planar analogue. The general relativistic magnetohydrodynamic equations for isothermal have been investigated there. The dispersion relations are obtained by using linear perturbation and Fourier analyze techniques for non-rotating and rotating, non-magnetized and magnetized environment. The wave number, phase velocity, group velocity etc. are shown to discuss the nature of the waves.     

Characterization of organic matter and depositional environment of Tertiary mudstones from the Sylhet Basin,Bangladesh

The Sylhet Basin of Bangladesh is a sub-basin of the Bengal Basin. It contains a very thick (up to 22 km) Tertiary stratigraphic succession consisting mainly of sandstones and mudstones. The Sylhet succession is divided into the Jaintia (Paleocene–late Eocene), Barail (late Eocene–early Miocene), Surma (middle–late Miocene), Tipam (late Miocene–Pliocene) and Dupitila Groups (Pliocene–Pleistocene), in ascending order. The origin of the organic matter (OM) and paleoenvironment of deposition have been evaluated on the basis of C, N, S elemental analysis, Rock-Eval pyrolysis and gas chromatography–mass spectrometry (GC–MS) analysis of 60 mudstone samples collected from drill core and surface outcrops. Total organic carbon (TOC) content ranges from 0.11% to 1.56%. Sulfur content is low in most samples. TOC content in the Sylhet succession varies systematically with sedimentation rate, with low TOC caused by clastic dilution produced by high sedimentation rates arising from rapid uplift and erosion of the Himalaya.The OM in the succession is characterized by systematic variations in pristane/phytane (Pr/Ph), oleanane/C₃₀ hopane, n-C₂₉/n-C₁₉ alkane, Tm/Ts [17α(H)-22,29,30-trisnorhopane/18α(H)-22,29,30-trisnorhopane] and sterane C₂₉/(C₂₇ + C₂₈ + C₂₉) ratios during the middle Eocene to Pleistocene. Based on biomarker proxies, the depositional environment of the Sylhet succession can be divided into three phases. In the first (middle Eocene to early Miocene), deposition occurred completely in seawater-dominated oxic conditions, with abundant input of terrestrial higher plants, including angiosperms. The second phase (middle to late Miocene) consisted of mainly freshwater anoxic conditions along with a small seawater influence according to eustasic sea level change, with diluted OM derived from phytoplankton and a lesser influence from terrestrial higher plants. Oxygen-poor freshwater conditions prevailed in the third phase (post-late Miocene). Planktonic OM was relatively abundant in this stage, while a high angiosperm influx prevailed at times. T_max values of ca. 450 °C, vitrinite reflectance (R_o) of ca. 0.66% and methylphenanthrene index (MPI 3) of ca. 1 indicate the OM to be mature. The lower part (middle Eocene to early Miocene) of the succession with moderate TOC content and predominantly terrestrial OM could have generated some condensates and oils in and around the study area.