近45年拉萨浅层地温对气候变化的响应

利用1961-2005年拉萨0～40cm各层逐月平均地温,采用气候倾向率、累积距平、信噪比等气候统计方法,研究了近45年拉萨浅层平均地温的变化趋势、气候突变和异常年份等。结果表明:浅层各季节平均地温均呈现极显著的升高趋势,升温率为0.43～0.60℃/10a,春季最大,夏季最小。各层年平均地温以0.45～0.66℃/10a的升温率显著上升,40cm深度的升温率最大,与同时期平均气温的升温率比较,地温比气温对气候变暖的响应更强。20世纪60年代至90年代浅层年、季平均地温呈明显的逐年代升高趋势,以冬、春季最为明显。20世纪60年代到80年代中期为偏冷阶段,80年代后期至90年代地温为偏暖阶段。各浅层平均地温在1986年秋季均发生了突变,冬季突变时间都出现在1984年。年平均地温除在40cm处1999年异常偏高外,其它各层为异常偏低年份,且发生在20世纪60年代。气温升高是影响地温上升的主要原因。     

Study on Phase Behavior of CO2/Hydrocarbons in Shale Reservoirs Considering Sieving Effect and Capillary Pressure

The phase behavior of fluid is essential for predicting ultimate oil recovery and determining optimal production parameters. The pore size in shale porous media is nanopore, which causes different phase behaviors of fluid in unconventional reservoirs. Nanopores in shale media can be regard as semipermeable membrane to filter heavy components (sieving effect) in shale oil, which leads to the different distributions of fluid components and different phase behaviors. In addition, the phase behavior of fluid in nanopores can be significantly altered by large capillary pressure. In this paper, the phase behavior of fluid in shale reservoirs is investigated by a new two-phase flash algorithm considering sieving effect and capillary pressure. Firstly, membrane efficiency and capillary pressure are introduced to establish a thermodynamic equilibrium model that is solved by Rachford–Rice flash calculation and Newton–Raphson method. The capillary pressures in different pore sizes are calculated by the Young–Laplace equation. Then, the influences of sieving effect and capillary pressure on phase behavior are analyzed. The results indicate that capillary pressure can suppress the bubble point pressure of fluid in nanopores. The distributions of fluid components are different in various parts of shale media. In the unfiltered part, density and viscosity of fluid are higher. Finally, it is found that the membrane efficiency can be improved by CO₂ injection. The minimum miscibility pressure for shale oil–CO₂ system is also studied. The developed model provides a better understanding of the phase behavior of fluid in shale oil reservoirs.

     

上海市电力负荷与气象因子关系及精细化预报

电力负荷预测是电力调度的重要参考依据,气象条件对电力负荷有重要影响。利用上海市2004—2008年15 min 1次的电力负荷资料和宝山气象站 (区站号58362) 同一时段3 h 1次的气象观测资料,对上海市电力负荷特征进行分析,发现不同温度区间和不同天气类型电力负荷的日变化特征有明显差别。采用逐步回归方法得到各温度区间日平均气象负荷率的预报方程,通过系数订正,得出不同天气类型的逐时负荷预报。2009年试报结果显示:采用预报日前3 d的趋势负荷平均值作为预报当日的趋势负荷值,得到的日平均负荷预测值的误差最小,约为3.6%;非工作日日平均负荷的平均预报相对误差比工作日大;日平均气温超过18 ℃时,工作日日平均负荷的预报误差较小;低于18 ℃时,预报误差明显增大;逐时负荷平均预报误差约为4%。